Iran War

[Sheilbh]

Then I think you're monitoring a fringe to be honest.

But again I don't think I really buy right side of history framing - I don't think there's a telos to it. But to the extent there is that sort of goes to my question, right? Or at least of the challenge in the question? From my point of view the regime is vastly stronger as a consequence of this war than it was before it, having killed tens of thousands of people.

It seems to me that objectively Trump and Netanyahu's war has probably given a new lease of life to the regime in a way that their own internal violence didn't (and, perhaps, couldn't). So the regime's violence reflected its nature as bloody, bedraggled and relatively isolated (economically, regionally etc) - and then removed from its isolation, strengthened, re-legitimised by a war that was a mistake (although I note France has said they'll veto any US proposal to lift UN sanctions until Iran agrees a more comprehensive nuclear agreement). So what's "the right side of history" there?

[Razgovory]

It is a fringe that seems to have a lot of influence, if the recent elections in New York mean anything.  And this is sort of the kind thing that Sophie was talking about with apartheid.  She is asking if we would be on the right side of history here.  Who is morally correct, who will be remember as right.  I think I'm just bitter.  This is not a world I want to live in.

And I agree, the Iranians hands down won the war.  They are coming out much stronger diplomatically and politically.

[The Brain]

History will likely be written by Grok, so it really shouldn't be the measuring yard of anything.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think I'm just bitter.  This is not a world I want to live in.

As the clever hopes expire
Of a low dishonest decade:
Waves of anger and fear
Circulate over the bright
And darkened lands of the earth

[Valmy]

I think I'm just bitter.  This is not a world I want to live in.

Oh man. I feel this. 

[Maladict]

The world I lived in seems to be dying.

I'm afraid that's just part of ageing.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, just imagine what Grumbler has been through 

[Richard Hakluyt]

The poor fellow.....never been the same since Alaric sacked Rome 

[Norgy]

And so shortly after swimming to Neapolis' aid when that pesky Vesuvius started emitting molten lava.

[grumbler]

And so shortly after swimming to Neapolis' aid when that pesky Vesuvius started emitting molten lava.

Fuck the Neapolitans!  They were all assholes.  I'm just sorry Vesuvius didn't wipe 'em out.

The Palaeopolitans were great, though, until Quintus Publilius Philo "accidently" killed them all. I still miss some of those guys.

[Grey Fox]

Yeah, they were good lads. My Grandpa still sings their praises.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

And so shortly after swimming to Neapolis' aid when that pesky Vesuvius started emitting molten lava.

Fuck the Neapolitans!  They were all assholes.  I'm just sorry Vesuvius didn't wipe 'em out.

The Palaeopolitans were great, though, until Quintus Publilius Philo "accidently" killed them all. I still miss some of those guys.

[Syt]

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-war-oil-july-8-2026-fee04dcea661c08de12c04914ff2751b

Iran targets Bahrain and Kuwait after US launches strikes and limits the sale of Iranian oil

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The U.S. launched strikes on Iran early Wednesday, hours after it revoked a license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil in retaliation for what it said were Tehran's attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran hit back with strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait.

The crossfire raised the risk that an interim agreement to halt fighting in the war could break down and drag the Middle East again into a wider conflict. It also threatened efforts to resume fuel shipments in the strait that are crucial to the global economy, and oil prices rose.

The attacks on shipping and the resulting strikes came during the dayslong funeral for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed Feb. 28 in the war's first moments. The funeral, which ends Thursday, was supposed to be a period of lower tensions — though mourners have repeatedly called for the killings of U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Negotiations to reach a final deal had been due to start after Khamenei's burial and focus on the toughest matters, including fully reopening the strait and rolling back Tehran's disputed nuclear program. But the new attacks throw that into question, though neither country immediately signaled they'd walk away from the negotiating table.

"The era of bullying and extortion is over," Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf wrote on X. "It leads nowhere. We don't fold."

Overnight US strikes target Iran
The U.S. military's Central Command said American forces launched strikes "to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway."

It said it hit Iranian targets including air defense systems, radars and over 60 small boats used by Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

Those boats have been key to threatening ships in the strait, through which a fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas passed before the war. Iran's ability to bring shipping in the waterway to a near halt during the war proved its greatest strategic advantage as rising prices for energy supplies, fertilizer and food put pressure on the U.S. to make a deal. On Wednesday, the price of Brent crude, the international standard, rose.

The U.S. military remains "prepared to hold Iran accountable when the agreement is not adhered to or obeyed," it added, saying this round of attacks had ended.

Iranian state media reported explosions in several locations, including in Bandar Mahshahr, where a Guard member was killed. It also reported attacks on Bushehr, home to Iran's nuclear power plant complex.

On Wednesday morning, both Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, and Kuwait, home to U.S. Army forces, sounded missile alerts. The Guard issued a statement acknowledging targeting U.S. military installations in both countries.

A similar spate of Iranian attacks on shipping and U.S. retaliatory strikes occurred late last month — which similarly drew Iranian attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait. Wednesday's strikes came as Trump was in Turkey for a summit of the NATO military alliance.

Anwar Gargash, a senior diplomat in the United Arab Emirates, called Iran's attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait "a clear indicator that Tehran remains incapable of committing to the requirements of de-escalation and turning the page on war."

US revokes the license for the sale of Iranian oil
Before the strikes, the U.S. revoked a license that authorized the sale of Iranian oil as part of the interim deal. That paused U.S. sanctions and allowed Iran to conduct oil sales openly for U.S. dollars for the first time in years. Iran long had been suspected of selling sanctioned crude at below-market prices to China.

The decision came after the strikes on shipping. One tanker was off the coast of Oman when it was hit and caught fire, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. Iranian state television said the tanker came under attack after ignoring warnings but did not directly claim the assault.

Majed al-Ansari, a spokesperson for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, said the tanker was carrying Qatari natural gas and called the strike an "unacceptable attack" on international navigation and global energy security. He said Qatar, which has been a key mediator alongside Pakistan in the talks, holds Iran "fully legally responsible."

The other two ships sustained some damage, but no one was injured, and both continued on their way, the U.K. agency said.

Iran and the United States agreed as part of the interim deal to allow ships to pass through the strait without paying charges for 60 days. But Tehran has insisted it must control the vessels' routes and vowed to later charge fees for passage. That would upend decades of practice in the waterway. The ships attacked Tuesday all appeared to be using a route close to Oman's shore, rather than one ordered by Tehran.

The U.S. and many Gulf Arab states say they will not agree to Iran charging for passage through the strait.

Mourners attend Khamenei's funeral services in Iraq
Funeral ceremonies for Khamenei were held Wednesday in the Iraqi city of Najaf. Attending the services are Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and other Iranian as well as Iraqi officials, including Prime Minister Ali Falah al-Zaidi. There will be funeral prayers later at the Imam Hussein shrine in Karbala as well.

Khamenei's son, Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has yet to make an appearance at the ceremonies, which began Saturday in Tehran. He is believed to be in hiding after reportedly being wounded in the airstrike that killed his father.

Khamenei's body will then be returned to Iran to be buried Thursday at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, his birthplace.

[Valmy]

And the war is back on! Or not. Or it is! Or it isn't.

Meanwhile we seem to be succeeding in our manipulation of oil prices through financial instruments so I guess Trump has that covered. Not sure how sustainable that is but I guess now we get to see how far we can take this.

[Sheilbh]

The really important factor on oil prices is China's willingness to use its strategic reserves (x4 the US reserves) for stabilisation. I think this is maybe the third or fourth global crisis where a decisive factor (if not the decisive) has been Beijing's policy response - and I don't think our mental maps or reporting have caught up to that reality or what it means.