Iran War?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think if it happens it will be like Vietnam. It won't be an initial, shock and awe. It will be some pretextual, limited-scope ground incursion. Which will then result in more troops being needed and then more and then more etc. The obvious reason Vietnam happened that way is the more we got into it, the more of a quagmire it became, and that will be paralleled if we go into Iran.

Once ground troops are involved it will also be harder and harder for Congress to resist huge appropriations bills--no one likes to be on the other side of the vote when the President can say you're abandoning our soldiers on the ground.

[Jacob]

So evidently Tehran says that if the US targets its power plants:

The Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and not reopened until Iranian damaged power plants are rebuilt."

All power plants, energy infrastructure, and information-technology infrastructure in Israel will be widely targeted.

All similar companies in the region that has American shareholders will be completely destroyed.

Power plants in regional countries hosting US bases will be considered legitimate targets.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah I mean a lot of that is obviously far beyond Iranian capacities. Particularly the idea of being able to at will effect the complete destruction of their adversaries' military infrastructure. That's akin to the kind of unrealistic rhetoric Trump himself uses.

We should avoid treating Iran's effective leverage of its limited capabilities as evidence of greater Iranian military strength than actually exists. Iran has a very diminished missile arsenal, of somewhat unreliable missiles, which both the US and IDF defeat at very high rates. Due to their slow speed and long travel times, the drones they are mostly using to terrorize the Strait and Gulf Coast aren't very effective at striking Israel.

Military assets are also generally more hardened, more mobile, and more redundant than the oil and gas infrastructure of the gulf states.

The threat to keep the Strait closed is however worth taking seriously.

[Tonitrus]

The other thing I'm curious about is how the likely ground invasion is going to affect US domestic politics and the upcoming midterms.

If I were the Iranians thinking strategically...I'd probably be looking at causing as much pain as possible to the US/world in order to try and swing the midterms against Trump as much as possible.

They are likely thinking that they can suffer any kind of pain short of a massive ground invasion, and assuming that the chances of that are about nil.  And that they can suffer/survive limited ground operations, and that making such limited operations painful to the US only helps the aforementioned strategy.

If Trump TACOs, even better...continue to extort the other Gulf states and the world over oil prices holding the SoH hostage in support of the same strategy.

[Jacob]

Other than the "close the Strait of Hormuz" bit, I think the threats are a bit aspirational - but even the declaration of intent means that defensive assets have to be spread more widely, I'd think.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Other than the "close the Strait of Hormuz" bit, I think the threats are a bit aspirational - but even the declaration of intent means that defensive assets have to be spread more widely, I'd think.

will depend on how the graph for drone useage goes. last week or so it was already on a steady rise. If that continues then aspirations might become realities sooner rather than later

[DGuller]

If this keep going, then at some point I see China and Russia making Iran our Ukraine.  A nation of 90 million defending their homeland with economic resources and technology of our enemies will make for a very painful war for the US.

[HVC]

I don't think it'll ever get to that point. Unlike Ukraine and Russia they don't border you. At some point the public will start turning, Trump will panic and pull the troops will declaring victory and Fox will echo the storyline eagerly. Then he'll pick on Cuba for an easier victory and get another FIFA peace prize.

[crazy canuck]

Why is a ground war likely?

[Jacob]

Why is a ground war likely?

Because escalation seems the only way forward that does not result in an immediate loss of face for Trump.

Unless, of course, the Iranian regime collapses. It doesn't seem to me like it's about to, but I'm no expert.

What do you think is the most likely scenario(s) for the war?

[crazy canuck]

Why is a ground war likely?

Because escalation seems the only way forward that does not result in an immediate loss of face for Trump.

Unless, of course, the Iranian regime collapses. It doesn't seem to me like it's about to, but I'm no expert.

What do you think is the most likely scenario(s) for the war?

I think it is more likely that Trump will declare victory and leave the area

[Jacob]

I think it is more likely that Trump will declare victory and leave the area

It's definitely a possibility. The question for me is: how is he going to do that without having his face rubbed in his own failure, something which he dislikes intensely?

I don't know how amenable Iran is to going back to the status quo ante if the US withdraws unilaterally in a way that will make "declare victory and leave" seem convincing. Then again, Trump is very good at believing his own declared reality even if it's at odds with observable facts.

But we'll see.

[DGuller]

Why are we assuming that that it's all down to Trump as to how the war with Iran will end?  Iran found some balls to squeeze, they may not relax the grip as soon as Trump decides he doesn't want to keep pummeling Iran.

[Jacob]

Why are we assuming that that it's all down to Trump as to how the war with Iran will end?  Iran found some balls to squeeze, they may not relax the grip as soon as Trump decides he doesn't want to keep pummeling Iran.

Exactly.

Trump may declare victory and go home.

What if Iran declares you need to pay $X to transit Hormuz safely, to recoup the costs from US and Israeli attacks? Is the US going to go right back in, or eat the humiliation?

... or maybe Iran will say they're keeping the Straits closed until they get reparations directly from the US.

... or something else.

But just because the US goes home and stops attacking Iran doesn't mean Iran will do the convenient thing.

Which, IMO, makes it less likely that Trump will declare victory and go home.

[Valmy]

Israel invading Lebanon complicates things. Iran probably won't stop while that is happening.