Iran War?

[Sheilbh]

Interesting to see suggestions that as well as permitting some Chinese vessels through that Iran is considering allowing tankers through if the sale is denominated in RMB. Presumably trying to destabilise the petrodollar?

Edit: US has reportedly bombed Kharg island. I'd expect Iran to escalate in turn - possibly attacking energy infrastructure in Gulf states? Or maybe the Houthis entering the fray?

[Jacob]

Short of moving tectonic plates around, I don't see how one permanently ends Iran's ability to disrupt the strait.

And with Rubio and Co. mulling over a fanciful anabasis to secure and remove massive amounts of nuclear material from multiple sites in the interior of the country, I think we can count out the elimination of the Iran nuclear program as a viable war objective.

If genuine regime change were a US aim - and I doubt it is or ever was - the US has not pursued the means to achieve that and seem very unlikely to do so.

Those to me are the reasonable sounding war aims - whether stated explicitly or implicitly. Occasionally Trump seems to state some of them as being the goal, but it never quite sticks. I think you're right, it doesn't seem like the US has a viable path to achieving those goals.

The facts are as they appear - the US is spending billions of dollars and squandering valuable munitions so that the SecDef can self-climax over watching his cool toys hit their targets and so that the WH media team can impress late maturing 12 year olds with their super-cool memes.

If those are the goals, then I suppose the US really is winning - or Trump and his backers are.

I suppose that if the goal of the war is more of an Orwellian 1984 war that's not made for traditional forms of winning, but which is important for propaganda purposes it's also worth understanding what the winning and losing definitions look like through that lens.

Winning for Trump - I think - means expending a reasonable amount of US lives and treasure without losing face; it means opportunities for personal and clique profit; it means opportunities for other leaders to treat him like a "big powerful man"; it means Iranian and domestic responses that play into any anti-democratic or post-presidential designs he may have to retain power; and all of that without enough loss in domestic support to threaten his position (both in terms of appropriately distributed voters, and in terms of special interest groups that help him maintain influence888888).

Losing for Trump means enough set-backs that make him look like "a loser" in his own eyes and in the eyes of those whose respect he craves, especially if forced to a settlement of some sort that he dislikes. It also means enough of a drop in domestic support, both in terms of voters, but especially among the groupings that he would be relying on to maintain power whether via anti-democratic shenanigans, or as a "grand old man" of the GOP post-presidency.

If those are Trump's war aims, he may well be able to bring home a victory. It'll look as a loss for the US though, because those aren't really national war aims but personal war aims. Then again, that's very on brand for Trump - winning by making the US lose.

[Tonitrus]

Some sort of landing in Iran to achieve a crucial objective before withdrawing? Potentially audacious, and potentially not crazy.

Taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? They might need a little more than 2 200 marines to pull that off for any length of time.

Thin point of the wedge for taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? I guess we should look out for more substantial assets being put into position.

There are lots of islands in SoH that they could take...but I am not sure what value that would really have, unless some of them are bases for various denial ops in the straight. 

Landing/taking Kharg island might be a symbolic move...but that means boats of Marines moving through the straight...they will be target #1 for the Iranians.

I think landing/taking anything on the mainland coast would be a giant gift to the IRGC...any landing zone there would be a giant magnet for Iran's ground forces...or child soldier human waves.

[Legbiter]

Depends on what they're going to do, I suppose.

Beef up security on US bases in the region? Seems reasonable.

Extra meat for Iranian drones to hit, the US staff on every base in the Gulf has dispersed into hotels by this point.

Some sort of landing in Iran to achieve a crucial objective before withdrawing? Potentially audacious, and potentially not crazy.

Seizing Kharg island means they will be under constant drone and artillery attack. You'd have Iranian special forces posting FPV drone footage of American marines getting killed.

Taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? They might need a little more than 2 200 marines to pull that off for any length of time.

Same problem as Kharg island, you seize some coastal real estate, the Iranians pound you with drones and artillery from a little inland, up in the mountains.

The point is the Iranians have cruise missiles costing about the same as a used car.

[jimmy olsen]

Sicilian Expedition levels of hubris.

Depends on what they're going to do, I suppose.

Beef up security on US bases in the region? Seems reasonable.

Some sort of landing in Iran to achieve a crucial objective before withdrawing? Potentially audacious, and potentially not crazy.

Taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? They might need a little more than 2 200 marines to pull that off for any length of time.

Thin point of the wedge for taking and holding the Iranian coast to prevent attacks on Hormuz shipping? I guess we should look out for more substantial assets being put into position.

I have to assume they're going to try and capture Kharg island, which would be quite risky, but not as patently insane as trying to seize a port on the mainland.

[viper37]

There is no mass migration movement from North to South.  There is however a massive interest in Americans gaining another citizenship.  Go figure which country is in decline. 

Speaking of: Any Canadians want to adopt me?   

lol 

You need Canadian ancestor these days to expedite the process 

[viper37]

Israel is about to launch a massive "temporary" conquest of Lebanon.

Israel planning massive ground invasion of Lebanon, officials say

Non paywall link

Israel is planning to significantly expand its ground operation in Lebanon, aiming to seize the entire area south of the Litani River and dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure, Israeli and U.S. officials say.
Why it matters: This could be the largest Israeli ground invasion of its northern neighbor since 2006, dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran.

• "We are going to do what we did in Gaza," a senior Israeli official said, referring to the flattening of buildings Israel says Hezbollah uses to store weapons and launch attacks.

The big picture: An operation of this size and scale could lead to a prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.

• Lebanon's government is deeply alarmed that the renewed war — triggered by Hezbollah's decision to launch rockets at Israel — will devastate the country.
• The Trump administration backs a major Israeli operation to disarm Hezbollah, but is also pressing to limit the damage to the Lebanese state and pushing for direct Israel-Lebanon talks on a postwar agreement.

Driving the news: Until days ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government was still trying to contain the Lebanon escalation in order to stay focused on Iran, according to Israeli officials.

• That calculus changed Wednesday when Hezbollah launched more than 200 missiles in a massive coordinated attack with Iran, which fired dozens of its own.
• "Before this attack we were ready for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but after it there is no way back from a massive operation," a senior Israeli official said.

State of play: The IDF has had three armored and infantry divisions on the Lebanese border since the start of the Iran war, with some ground forces conducting limited incursions over the past two weeks.

• On Friday, the IDF announced it's sending reinforcements to the border and mobilizing additional reserves ahead of the expanded ground operation.
• "The goal is to take over territory, push Hezbollah's forces north and away from the border, and dismantle its military positions and weapons depots in the villages," the official said.

The other side: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said Friday that the Lebanese government's diplomatic track had failed to achieve sovereignty or protect Lebanese civilians — and therefore "there is no solution except resistance."

• "When the enemy threatens a ground invasion, we tell him: this is not a threat, but one of the traps you will fall into," Qassem said.
• "Because every advance of a ground invasion allows the resistance fighters to achieve gains and results through close confrontation with the enemy."

Zoom in: The IDF has issued evacuation orders across southern Lebanon and — for the first time — to villages and towns north of the Litani River, as well as to Hezbollah's stronghold in Beirut's southern suburbs.

• Around 800,000 Lebanese civilians have been displaced since the start of the conflict. At least 773 people have been killed, many of them civilians.

Behind the scenes: The Trump administration asked Israel not to bomb Beirut's international airport or other Lebanese state infrastructure during the operation, U.S. and Israeli officials say.

• U.S. officials said Israel agreed to spare the airport — but stopped short of committing to protect other state infrastructure. On Friday, the IDF bombed a bridge in southern Lebanon it claimed Hezbollah was using to move forces and weapons.
• An Israeli official said they will consult with Washington on a case-by-case basis: "We feel we have full U.S. backing for this operation," the official told Axios.
• "The Israelis have to do what they have to do to stop the Hezbollah shelling," a U.S. official said.

The intrigue: Netanyahu has tasked former minister Ron Dermer with managing the Lebanese file during the war, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

• Dermer will handle contacts with the Trump administration and lead any negotiations with the Lebanese government if direct talks begin in the coming weeks, the officials said.
• On the American side, the file is being managed by Trump adviser Massad Boulos, who is also the U.S. envoy for Africa.
• Boulos, who is Tiffany Trump's father-in-law, has been in contact with Israeli, Lebanese and Arab officials in recent days to facilitate direct talks between Israel and Lebanon.

What to watch: The Lebanese government has indicated in recent days it is ready to hold direct talks on the terms of a ceasefire with Israel, immediately and without preconditions.

• Sources say the Trump administration wants to use those negotiations to lay the groundwork for a broader deal that would formally end the state of war between Israel and Lebanon — ongoing since 1948.

[Valmy]

Yeah good luck with that.

[Syt]

State of the world:

[jimmy olsen]

Actually, mulling it over, capturing Kharg could end up worse than failing to do so.

It would give Trump a success to crow over, but when the Iranians decide to level the island, ships need to stay in the strait to protect the marines there and they won't have room to maneuver. Could definitely end up losing more men and material trying to hold on the island than straight up failing to capture it.
I don't know if Trump's ego could handle it. Could see him busting out the nukes after that.

[viper37]

So Trump is apparently about to make a speech where he'll say that Iran is just about to surrender?

2200 Marines are being deployed to Iran, they're on ships sailing to Iran right now. Maybe this is related?

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603131206

Sicilian Expedition levels of hubris.

Apparently, it's more like 5000 now, and a few more ships are sailing toward Iran.  Feels like Vietnam in slow motion.

Concept of a plan.

[HVC]

Wonder what they'll resort to if there's no foliage to defoliate?

[Valmy]

It is hard for me to vocalize how crushingly depressing this war is.

[Legbiter]

Fukuyama came out with this. Interesting he correctly predicted the Kharg Island attack a day before it occured.

[Grey Fox]

It is hard for me to vocalize how crushingly depressing this war is.

It's not too late, you still have a place amongst us.