Iran War?

[Maladict]

I mean the President always survives the midterms, this isn't parliament.

Surviving in the sense of not becoming a lame duck.

[The Brain]

I mean the President always survives the midterms, this isn't parliament.

Surviving in the sense of not becoming a lame duck.

Ah, checks and balances.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I mean the President always survives the midterms, this isn't parliament.

Surviving in the sense of not becoming a lame duck.

2nd term Presidents always become lame ducks after the mid terms. Even if their party wins (which itself is rare). Without the power of a future election, the power of the President in Congress is always diminished, with both allies and enemies.

[Sheilbh]

Anyone remember the Board of Peace?

Yes, the US friends list.

Unleash Infantino!

[DGuller]

I mean the President always survives the midterms, this isn't parliament.

Surviving in the sense of not becoming a lame duck.

2nd term Presidents always become lame ducks after the mid terms. Even if their party wins (which itself is rare). Without the power of a future election, the power of the President in Congress is always diminished, with both allies and enemies.

That may be true in general, but probably only because former presidents are normally political non-entities.  Trump can be the boss of bosses figure even after he leaves the presidency.

[jimmy olsen]

Economy's fucked!

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-totalenergies-others-declare-fm-their-clients-who-take-lng-qatar-sources-2026-03-11/

[OttoVonBismarck]

It is a bit interesting—the world of national security / defense policy wonks has been somewhat undermined in the last 10 years due to the general decline in respect for expertise as a concept. But on Iran this situation is playing out pretty damn close to how the experts were saying it would play out literally 35+ years ago.

Guess their expertise meant something.

It is also notable Trump very deliberately made sure those kinds of people were nowhere near his 2nd Administration. Figures like Mattis, McMaster etc being replaced with men of inferior quality like Hegseth. We don't even have a real National Security Adviser—Mike Waltz (himself a disaster) was ousted in May and they've just had SecState Rubio add the duties of NSA to his portfolio. Note that NSA has usually been filled by someone with significant command experience in the military, significant academic defense policy experience, or significant intelligence community experience.

From 1998 - 2025 Rubio's only jobs have been as an elected official in legislative roles.

Rubio's professional training was as a lawyer.

[Valmy]

Anyone remember the Board of Peace?

Bored of Peace.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Board of Pieces

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Board of Pieces

Yet not bored of pieces

[Maladict]

I mean the President always survives the midterms, this isn't parliament.

Surviving in the sense of not becoming a lame duck.

2nd term Presidents always become lame ducks after the mid terms. Even if their party wins (which itself is rare). Without the power of a future election, the power of the President in Congress is always diminished, with both allies and enemies.

Well I certainly hope so, but I don't really see it happening if he keeps control of both houses.

[Jacob]

However it works out, war is the kind of thing that is difficult to just bullshit your way out of and change the topic on. The exception is small distant, low-effort colonial wars maybe... but that's not what this war on Iran is.

[Jacob]

How do you all reckon China will play this?

At the moment it seems mostly to be "keep your head down and let the US waste political and military capital" I suppose. But what makes more sense for them? Support Iran (clandestinely, of course), to increase the severity of the bleeding for the US? Or put pressure on Iran to free up oil through the Hormuz (which they need), but also thereby implicitly supporting Trump?

On a different China tack, I wonder to what degree China is taking lessons on Taiwan from this. If Russia gets and expensive and much longer than anticipated quagmire, and the US gets one as well... will China choose to avoid that risk? On the other hand if Xi does oversee a quick successful annexation of Taiwan instead of a quagmire, that'll bolster his credibility. But if it doesn't...?

[OttoVonBismarck]

So I subscribe to the South China Morning Post, it's not state media but they don't have full editorial independence, I think they're probably still some of the best English language insight into Chinese thinking (which is why I subscribe.)

They've had a bunch of articles about the war largely emphasizing the moves China is making to diversify itself away from reliance on fossil fuel bottle necks in the Middle East. Particularly, building out more of its own oil production (China actually does produce a good bit of oil, not as much as the oil majors, nor nearly enough to satisfy its own desires), but they do have some fields they can tap into more--they've noted Xinjiang as an example. They've also been emphasizing the goals of generating more non-fossil fuel energy and decarbonizing in general.

Reading between the lines it sounds like they're in a holding pattern and just saying "we're working to be less affected by such things."

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Iran's export to China is continuing,  apparently from another port? One outside the straits.