Iran War?

[Maladict]

From Faux News:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hegseth-says-leader-behind-effort-assassinate-trump-has-been-hunted-down-killed-iran

"America is winning decisively, devastatingly and without mercy," Hegseth said.

Let me guess: they will get tired of winning?

[Jacob]

...

Meanwhile, Hegseth, on Wednesday said the combination of U.S. and Israeli intelligence and combat power "will control Iran and will control it soon."

"America is winning decisively, devastatingly and without mercy," Hegseth said.]

I mean, so for the Trump administration has really leaned into the parts the US military is good at. Blowing things up, killing people, and dominating militarily. (and I bet it makes them feel really good too)

The challenging bits are going to come in the next however many months. What happens next in Iran? Is it any better? And what will it cost the US (and everyone else)?

[Legbiter]

Well yeah what happens if the regime just...hangs on? A zombie regime that will instantly reconstitute it's security apparatus as soon as the skies clear even if it dosen't have a functioning ballistic missile program anymore?

[mongers]

So lets assume this isn't a disaster and the Iranian people eventually benefit from a regime change, that begs the question 'Who's next' for this emboldened trump FP cult?


Which country, it's people and the leadership are next?

And the one after that?

Which could be the first Western democracy to be attacked?

Cuba is next.

Yes, most likely in all probability.

But I can see trump making a mini-drama out of Diego Garcia and just announcing the US has annexed it after declaring victory in Iran, would fit with the engorged ego and be a 'fitting' riposte to NATOs standing up to him on Greenland

[PJL]

I'd say right now both sides are winning. Just that they're playing different games, the US/Israel a military one, and Iran an economic one.

[Threviel]

If we define winning as slightly inconveniencing the enemy's civilian population, then sure, Iran is winning the economic war.

Iran is losing this war on every front in every way, it's just that I don't believe the US has any kind of solid plan and everything will go to hell for the Iranian people. Which, to be fair, is not the responsibility of the US. The responsibility of the Iranian people falls on the Iranian government and they brought this down on themselves these last 40 or so years.

So, I guess if the Americans and the Iranians spend all their energy and all their resources on battling each other it's a win for the western world. Two rogue states, both not our friends, tiring each other out must be seen as a win.

[Razgovory]

Something that will a warm a few of your hearts.
https://x.com/pawelwargan/status/2028222286872883330

It was never about civilians.

[Tonitrus]

Even if the thought was to use the Venezuelan gambit on Iran, I think there is one big difference.  While Maduro's successors appear to be content to be tithe-paying supplicants in order to maintain their domestic power base...I expect any remnants of the regime (if that is who is fated to survive) that might make a deal with Trump may pay lip service to the demands...but will be seething for revenge at the first/every opportunity.

[Valmy]

I expect any remnants of the regime (if that is who is fated to survive) that might make a deal with Trump may pay lip service to the demands...but will be seething for revenge at the first/every opportunity.

I have no idea what to expect. But I worry the ability of us to negotiate with anybody. Not only have we broken every deal we have ever made with them, we have killed anybody with the prestige or ability to accept any terms. I don't see we have any credibility nor any identifiable and acceptable person to enforce whatever terms we want to enforce. This new Ayatollah, the former dude's son, seems like a hard liner far beyond his father. So that's bad and besides how much power does he really have?

And I worry we have created intertia and momentum towards chaos, war, destabilization, and death. That will be hard to reverse if it really sets in. And we lack the resources and the will to stick around to fix it.

Or maybe this whole thing will somehow just fade away by next week and the status quo we reassert itself. What do I know?

[Richard Hakluyt]

If the target was regime change then it makes no sense to encourage the Kurds, which will increase the chances of a long and bloody civil war. It will also annoy the Turks who may well enter Iran just as they did in Syria. The problem with the likely ensuing chaos, apart from the misery inflicted on close to 100m people, is that a long term military presence in the Gulf will be required to keep the straits open.

[celedhring]

Since when is being merciless in war something to brag about? Jesus fucking christ.

[Valmy]

Since when is being merciless in war something to brag about? Jesus fucking christ.

We are being led by try hard edgelords.

[jimmy olsen]

Trump and his various spokespeople have not "ruled out" boots on the ground, apparently.

What do you all think the chances are of an American deployment on Iranian soil? Whether limited or substantial?

Literally insane. The only way troops on the ground would have been plausible if they enacted the draft the moment Trump was inaugurated.
You'd need 2 million troops to occupy a country with the size, terrain and population of Iran. Unless the killbots are way more advanced than we've been led to believe, it can't work.

[jimmy olsen]

I had coffee today with a friend whose family fled Iran shortly after the Revolution, when he was a young boy.  The family left to avoid the forced conversions that were occurring (they are Zoroastrians). His view was that although he was happy an evil man was killed, he fears the country will explode into both sectarian and nationalist violence that will make the break up of Yugoslavia look like a tea party.

Yugoslavia 1990 - Largest ethnic group, Serbs = 36%
Persia 2026 - Largest ethnic group, Persians = 61%

I think the outcome would end up quite different. Azeris are by far the largest minority though, so I guess if Azerbijian intervened they might be able to carve off some border areas?

[jimmy olsen]

Actually...

https://oc-media.org/azerbaijani-troops-reportedly-deployed-to-iranian-border-as-conflict-rages/