Iran War?

[Tonitrus]

Wouldn't matter much...there are plenty of ayatollahs.

Interestingly/oddly...among all the headlines of the attack, I've seen all of "Israel strikes Iran (with U.S. help)", "U.S. strikes Iran (with Israeli help)" and "U.S. and Israel strike Iran".

The regime is now cut off from any oil revenue. Doesn't matter if they find another Ayatollah, the Praetorian Guard has to be paid. This is not some gentle benevolent regime change operation, this is Timur making an example of Khwarezm. 

Sure, and the Praetorian guard will be able to cannibalize the host for years.  The ayatollahs are mostly symbolic figureheads to give legitimacy to the "Islamic Revolutionary" part.  The Praetorian guard was already in effective control, and will still be in control.

Sure, they won't get paid...but who will they turn on?  Themselves?  Nah.

[Tonitrus]

The operation name is also dumbly dangerous.  "Epic Fury" is too easy to be lampooned as "Epic Fail".

[Legbiter]

Sure, and the Praetorian guard will be able to cannibalize the host for years.  The ayatollahs are mostly symbolic figureheads to give legitimacy to the "Islamic Revolutionary" part.  The Praetorian guard was already in effective control, and will still be in control.

Sure, they won't get paid...but who will they turn on?  Themselves?  Nah.

Not disagreeing with you really. We are on the same page, the regime may well just endure even if you end up having to elevate the janitor to Ayatollah/IRGC). But it will rule over a wasteland that will make Somalia seem modern by comparison. It will not fund a Shia axis of resistance, Tehran may not have electricity except for a couple of hours like Cuba. Millions will try to get to anywhere else with say, clean drinking water.

Best case scenario is a military junta takes over who's leader charms Trump enough the US decides to relax sanctions. Rubio takes over as temporary Shāhanshāh.

[Tonitrus]

Khamenei was/is also 86...they probably already had a guy or three in mind as his successor.

[Hansmeister]

Khamenei was/is also 86...they probably already had a guy or three in mind as his successor.

The intended successor died two years ago in a helicopter crash.  Pretty much any other potential successor, Khameni's son, the head of the IRGC, the head of their intelligence service, and another 10 senior leaders are dead.

Iranians are overwhelmingly secular, and even amongst the shias, the regime represented a fringe millennial cult. Iran's economy had totally collapsed over the last year, mainly because they ran out of water due to mismanagement. This is why the protest had gotten so strong in the last few months. Heck, the President of Iran admitted that they didn't have any solutions to the problem and that Tehran might have to be abandoned.

The oil export money to pay off their supporters was the only real source of revenue left and with that gone they're pretty much done.

[The Minsky Moment]

If the objective was to strengthen the internal opposition, then the strikes should have been US only and back in early January.  It could have made a difference then, and validated Trump's pledge to protect the protestors.

Striking now and with the Israelis in the apparent lead, delegitimizes any internal force that would align with the US or use the strikes as a basis for anti-regime action.