Iran War?

[Valmy]

Very anemic response from Iran. A few Shaheds, a handful of medium range missiles per intermittent salvo that only serves to piss of the Gulf Arabs. Everything sent towards Israel intercepted. No massive barrages, their C&C must've been effectively suppressed.  

Yeah? What massive resources could a C&C deploy? They can't do shit unless we send in ground forces. But that has been the case for every conflict we have been in since the Korean War.

[Jacob]

Iran has twice the population of Iraq, plus much more rugged geography. It's significantly less amenable to rapid mechanized advances I'd assume. I guess you could secure the coast?

Yeah, I don't think invading Iran is a good idea for the US for a number of reasons, and I don't expect that's what the Trump regime is planning. I agree with those who think it's more of a "bomb and hope they collapse and/ or make concessions that look good on social media" thing.

Still, I'm trying to understand the US force dispositions. If they haven't pre-positioned much in the way of ground assets (and I don't think they have?), then obviously boots on the ground is much less likely than if they have.

[Duque de Bragança]

Very anemic response from Iran. A few Shaheds, a handful of medium range missiles per intermittent salvo that only serves to piss off the Gulf Arabs. Everything sent towards Israel intercepted. No massive barrages, their C&C must've been effectively suppressed.  

Too many Shaheds sold to Russia for use against Ukraine? 

[Legbiter]

Yeah? What massive resources could a C&C deploy? They can't do shit unless we send in ground forces. But that has been the case for every conflict we have been in since the Korean War

Sorry I meant Iranian command-and-control. As in they're mostly dead or stuffing suitcases full of loot before GTFO of the country. Kharg Island is offline, the regime artery has been cut. Good luck making payroll for the security services that keep the clerics in place.

[Valmy]

Yeah? What massive resources could a C&C deploy? They can't do shit unless we send in ground forces. But that has been the case for every conflict we have been in since the Korean War

Sorry I meant Iranian command-and-control. As in they're mostly dead or stuffing suitcases full of loot before GTFO of the country. Kharg Island is offline, the regime artery has been cut. Good luck making payroll for the security services that keep the clerics in place.

I know. I was questioning how their response would be significantly different otherwise.

[Razgovory]

The pro-Palestinian movement has now decided that Iranians should not be killed, so there is an upside to this at least.

[Legbiter]

I know. I was questioning how their response would be significantly different otherwise.

Coordinated medium-range missile barrages and shahed drones numbering a couple hundred each to overwhelm and deplete AA defense. Day after day, week after week. Dubai looking like Bakhmut after a week. LRMs causing havoc in Israel, etc.

Turns out the core competency of the regime is machinegunning unarmed protesters. Either the regime goes to play Battlefield with Assad in Moscow or they manage to hang on and continue killing their own people (same old). 

If the regime actually falls I gotta hand it to Trump, he has an animalistic sense for weakness.

[Tamas]

The pro-Palestinian movement has now decided that Iranians should not be killed, so there is an upside to this at least.

[Legbiter]

From the Beeb.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has just said that there's growing signs that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is "gone".

 

[Razgovory]

The pro-Palestinian movement has now decided that Iranians should not be killed, so there is an upside to this at least.

Right, don't bring up Israel in the Israel is bombing Iran thread.  It might upset Zoupa and CC.

[Tonitrus]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has just said that there's growing signs that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is "gone".

Wouldn't matter much...there are plenty of ayatollahs.

Interestingly/oddly...among all the headlines of the attack, I've seen all of "Israel strikes Iran (with U.S. help)", "U.S. strikes Iran (with Israeli help)" and "U.S. and Israel strike Iran".

[Zoupa]

All I could think of is those patriot missiles and tomahawks would be incredibly more useful to Ukraine. Then the DoD will say sorry Kyiv we can't sell you interceptors for your batteries we gotta replenish our own stocks. Result is more dead Ukrainian civilians.

[Tonitrus]

I put the chance of successful regime change from airstrikes at <1%.  It'd be nice...but I think there are too many layers of on-the-ground security forces who appear to pretty much have a monopoly on weaponry and every incentive to hold on to power.

[Legbiter]

All I could think of is those patriot missiles and tomahawks would be incredibly more useful to Ukraine. Then the DoD will say sorry Kyiv we can't sell you interceptors for your batteries we gotta replenish our own stocks. Result is more dead Ukrainian civilians.

Yeah, PAC-3 will be an endangered species when hostilities cease. It's being produced in hilariously small artisanal quantities.