Indian Elections 2024

[Jacob]

Analysis suggesting that massive discontent among farmers was a major factor in BJP losses:

The party, which in 2019 had won 23 seats in the country's second-most politically consequential state – Maharashtra sends 48 legislators to the lower house of India's parliament, behind only Uttar Pradesh state – secured only nine seats this time around. Its National Democratic Alliance, which won 41 seats in 2019, got only 17 in 2024.

It is a pattern that appears to have played out across many key farm belts in India. Nationally, the BJP lost its majority after a decade of dominance, winning 240 seats in a house of 543, compared with 303 in 2019. Modi and his party are still expected to form India's next government but will be dependent on alliance partners to keep it afloat.

An early analysis of the results suggests that millions of rural voters like Dabhane in some of the largest food-producing states of India dumped the BJP this time. In Haryana, known as India's bread basket, where the BJP won 10 out of 10 seats on offer in 2019, its tally was slashed to five this time, with the opposition Congress winning the other five. The BJP drew a blank in Punjab, one of the top producers of rice and wheat in the country.

...

"If you see the results, it is clear that one of the major reasons for the BJP's poor performance in rural areas is this anger among farmers towards Modi and the BJP," said Punjab-based Devinder Sharma, an agricultural scientist and widely respected farm analyst.

...

When Modi came campaigning in this onion-growing belt, Dighole asked local officials for a two-minute meeting with the prime minister so he could brief the leader on how the ban was affecting local farmers.

"Instead, local officials placed me under home arrest the day Modi came to this area," Dighole said, speaking from Nashik. "You have been ruling us for 10 years, but you don't even have two minutes to spare for us? That is what many farmers started asking themselves when Modi did this," Dighole said.

...

"There has come to be a strong perception that the BJP government took the support of farmers for granted," Jawandhiya said. "It almost felt like the BJP thought the farmers would never abandon the party," he added.

Over the years, said Dighole, the onion farmers association head, farmers had ceased voting on agrarian issues. "A farmer also gets influenced by other non-farm identities he carries, be it his caste or religion. Hence, farmers were, for many years now, getting swayed to vote on caste and religious lines," said Dighole.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/7/did-indias-farmers-ditch-modis-bjp-in-the-2024-election

[Jacob]

Sounds like Hindu Primacy didn't resonate as much this time around either:

"The BJP did not sell its Hindu agenda as much as it thought. Other countervailing factors have impacted the electorate," said T.V. Paul, a professor from McGill University.

...

"In the absence of that, what we've got in a federal country like India is a series of state-by-state, local contests in which more mundane, parochial issues really matter," he said.

"Jobs, inflation, local leaders, incumbency, caste, ethnicity, religion and those seem to have worked against the prime minister and his party."

Interestingly:

January's inauguration of the Ram Mandir, on the site of a destroyed mosque, analysts said, was the latest and most significant step in a years-long project, moving India away from its secular, pluralist founding principles and toward a new future as a Hindu nation.

On Tuesday night, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its seat in the town where the temple stands.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/06/india/india-opposition-rahul-gandhi-election-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html

[Sheilbh]

Interesting on the farmer point - isn't that kind of what happens last time the BJP lost (but then they actually lost)? They went into the election very, very confident on a big "India Shining" message - and actually lots of Indians didn't feel it was shining for them?

[Jacob]

Interesting on the farmer point - isn't that kind of what happens last time the BJP lost (but then they actually lost)? They went into the election very, very confident on a big "India Shining" message - and actually lots of Indians didn't feel it was shining for them?

I don't recall   When was that?

But yeah, Modi definitely didn't seem to put work into keeping farmers happy. We've seen anti-Modi, pro-farmer protests in Canada even.

I wonder if it was a "this is a tough but correct reform for the sake of the country and the economy", whether it was a corrupt/ oligarchical power play (basically to make money and opportunity for allied rich people at the cost of farmers), or whether it was more basic incompetence - fucking up something that didn't need to be fucked up.

[Sheilbh]

Fair I feel like it was 20 years ago - Vajpayee losing to Singh.

Couple of interesting maps - first comparing 2019 and 2024:


But also showing shift in support - and all that in Andhra Pradesh is from a BJP coalition partner/regionalist party:


Apparently that regional party's demands are special status for Andhra Pradesh, 50% funding for a new metro, industrial and electricity subsidies and various other special grants. As well 5 ministerial posts (plus 2 for their regional ally) - I think that's one of four or five coalition partners - other allies are also seeking roles or policies. All of which just shows that Modi's job has got a lot more difficult - and you feel he'll be less able to spend so much time on big events like opening the new parliament buildings etc and a lot more time in meeting rooms with committees.

[Valmy]

The BJP, like most empires, fails to conquer the Tamil Kings.

[Josquius]

Weird they seem to do so well in the very non hindu north east