Indian Elections 2024

[Sheilbh]

First of 7 polling days across India - an electorate of one billion voting over the next six weeks. And I think the result is a foregone conclusion with Modi likely to win a third term although the opposition parties have formed a common slate (the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance ) and I believe Indian elections tend to be very difficult to predict as there's often a big gap between polls, expectations and results - more surprises than normal. So who knows.

But I thought this was really interesting from the FT on BJP party activists (it is, after all, reportedly the largest political party in the democratic world - second only to the CCP). In particular them as a cadre party v Congress' as a leader party. It also echoes what I've heard from Indian journalists that the BJP works very hard for votes. Something I've also heard listening to Indian journalists talking about it which isn't mentioned here is that there are consequences in the BJP, so party organisers who do badly get demoted and have to work their way up again, while in Congress there's a lot of loyalty/old hands who've failed repeatedly still hanging around at the top running things.

(Warning: long and many images )

Is India's BJP the world's most ruthlessly efficient political party?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party has built one of the most formidable electoral machines in recent history
BJP organisers on the streets of Bhopal © Anindito Mukherjee/FT
Benjamin Parkin, John Reed and Jyotsna Singh in Bhopal April 17 2024

With a vermilion Hindu tika smeared on his forehead and a saffron and green scarf swathed around his neck, Dimple Shrivastava is ready for a busy day of campaigning with Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata party.

The 29-year-old party volunteer in Bhopal, a city of lakes and palaces in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, is hoping to ensure Modi's return for a historic third term in elections that start this week and in which almost 1bn people are registered to vote.

In Madhya Pradesh, party activists like Shrivastava receive a daily itinerary every morning through a party-run app called Sangathan (Organisation). Their assignments can range from helping out with local services such as garbage collection to visiting at least five houses for tea with voters.

"We can understand more or less who is not voting [for the BJP] and why, so we focus on them," says the activist, who must then upload photos on the app proving he met his daily targets.

Since Modi first won power a decade ago, the BJP has dominated Indian politics. The party won a majority in the lower house in 2019 and together with its allies controls more than half of India's states, including Madhya Pradesh.

A big part of that success is often attributed to the personal charisma of Modi, who has developed an almost cult-like presence in Indian politics and who has used holograms to appear at multiple rallies around the country. Critics complain about creeping authoritarianism under Modi, whose government has cracked down on opposition rivals and civil society voices.

But what is less appreciated is the sheer organisational depth and discipline of Modi's party, which has become one of the most efficient electoral machines in modern democratic politics.

The BJP claims it has 180mn members, although this figure is impossible to verify and follows a scheme where supporters simply had to call a number to register as members. Independent analysts say there are no accurate figures for party membership but nonetheless agree that the party can mobilise large armies of volunteers that allow it to crowd out its rivals on the street.

"This is the most organised and effective political party in the democratic world," says Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of a biography of Modi. That status is "in large part because it is also backed by the millions-strong cadre of its ideological fountainhead, the RSS", India's Hindu nationalist parent organisation.

The party is structured into a series of state, district and local-level units in a strategy designed to deploy its manpower with such granularity that each grassroots worker can target as few as 30 voters. In many parts of the country, there is a BJP representative on practically every street.


The BJP's Lakshmi Prakash Gorewar and Dimple Shrivastava talk to voters in Bhopal. The party has cultivated an army of workers like Gorewar, who is from a lower caste, to act as a bridge between the government and ordinary Indians © Anindito Mukherjee/FT


Shrivastava and other BJP activists receive a daily itinerary every morning from the party with assignments ranging from helping out with local services to visiting at least five houses for tea with voters © Anindito Mukherjee/FT

This helps with everything from relentless door-knocking to social media campaigns in which activists disseminate talking points to neighbourhood WhatsApp groups. Their messaging often combines promotion of Modi's signature welfare and development schemes with religious rhetoric that celebrates his role as a defender of Hinduism. Analysts say that none of the BJP's national rivals can compete with this street-level operation.

"They have sliced the electorate along geographical and sociological units," says Christophe Jaffrelot, a professor of political science at Sciences Po and King's College London. "You have WhatsApp groups for streets, for lawyers, for shopkeepers. These people in war rooms are bombarding them with messages for their vote."

With the morning heat beginning to bite in Rahul Nagar, a hilly working-class Bhopal neighbourhood, Shrivastava is joined by about a dozen other BJP activists. Slowly marching through the neighbourhood's narrow alleys, they chant Modi's name and knock on doors with well-rehearsed pitches about the party's work.

Manju Mandolia, a 30-year-old mother of two, interrupts them to complain about her inability to secure free food supplies due to out-of-date paperwork. Shrivastava assures her that he will personally see to it that she is registered that very day.

"This is Modi-Ji's guarantee," he declares, reminding them who to thank come polling day. "For the first time, a leader is doing huge work for the nation. His leadership is the cause of immense pride for us."

Even Modi's opponents concede the strength of the BJP's grassroots effort. "They have the machine on the ground . . . we are not a cadre party: we have been a leader party," Jairam Ramesh, head of communications at the rival Indian National Congress party, told the FT during a recent trip by Rahul Gandhi, the main face of Congress, to Madhya Pradesh.

Rajneesh Agrawal, a BJP state secretary, says this organisational drive keeps the party on its toes. "Sometimes workers become overconfident and think we may win anyway, so we keep doing activities, setting them targets," he says. Come voting day, "we will start bugging our booth-level workers from 5am".

In the election, which takes place over seven phases from April 19 to June 1, the BJP is targeting a two-thirds majority in parliament, increasing their count from 303 to 370 of 543 seats.

If Modi were to achieve such a victory, it would give him the powers to implement sweeping economic reforms. It would also allow him to do much more to enshrine Hindu values — and for many BJP supporters, this goal remains a central element of the party's appeal.

One of the BJP's political strengths is its roots in Hindu religious organisations. The party was created in 1980 as an offshoot of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a paramilitary religious nationalist group set up under British colonial rule to protect Hindu culture and transform India into a Hindu homeland.

The RSS and its affiliates, which include trade unions, NGOs and women's groups, have not only served as a source of BJP ideology but a feeder organisation and vast support network.

Modi himself came to the BJP via the RSS, joining the group as an activist in his native state Gujarat in his twenties before switching to party politics. He became the BJP's general secretary in 1987 and in 2001 he was named the state's chief minister. Top ministers in Modi's government, such as Amit Shah and Nitin Gadkari, have also worked with the RSS.

The RSS has for decades championed causes to address long-standing Hindu grievances that, under Modi, became core tenets of the BJP government's agenda.

This included revoking autonomy for India's only Muslim-majority territory, Jammu and Kashmir, in 2019 alongside campaigns to "liberate" Hindu shrines allegedly defiled by Muslim rulers over the centuries. It culminated with Modi inaugurating a new temple to Lord Ram on the site of a demolished mosque in January, considered by many to be the prime minister's greatest triumph.

While the RSS denies that it campaigns for any political party, analysts say that its members are a valuable source of manpower for the BJP when needed. "The RSS has front organisations or affiliated bodies across every spectrum you could think of," says Mukhopadhyay. "And they all step out to campaign for the BJP candidates."

Among the next generation of leaders is Sanjay Singh Rathour, a coiffed, muscular 26-year-old who started with the Bajrang Dal, a militant RSS-affiliated youth group, before becoming a BJP youth leader in Bhopal. Rathour says his time at the Bajrang Dal inspired him to champion Hindu nationalism.

Outsiders "can't but be impressed with what they see, our dedication, discipline and service", says Rathour, whose office wallpaper is decorated with an oversized image of the new Ram temple. "When people see us they can see and feel our commitment and discipline, and they get connected to us."


The BJP activists go door-to-door in Bhopal, where they are often joined by party supporters who chant Narendra Modi's name © Anindito Mukherjee/FT


A BJP worker in Bhopal gathers party paraphernalia next to a painting of Narendra Modi. Welfare has been a central part of the prime minister's appeal among India's hundreds of millions of poor and marginalised people © Anindito Mukherjee/FT

His job now is to cultivate the next generation of BJP supporters, particularly among young voters: The Election Commission says 18mn 18 and 19-year-olds will be casting a ballot this year for the first time.

Like Shrivastava, Rathour's day begins with instructions through the Sangathan app, summoning him to a planning meeting with his boss, a BJP state assembly member, and then to meet beneficiaries of government welfare schemes. He garlands them with caps and scarves, decorated with Modi's face, in the BJP's saffron.

After an evening prayer meeting, Rathour visits a nearby tea shop for a conversation with first-time voters over cups of hot, sugary chai. Among them is Gaurav Mahajan, a 22-year-old student and first-time voter who needs little convincing.

Mahajan says the proliferation of new roads and electricity connections in Bhopal has boosted the value of his family home. But he also admires how the party has placed Hinduism, the religion of 80 per cent of the population, at the centre of public life.

"Being a Hindu is a VIP tag," Mahajan says. "When the BJP comes back to power this time, I am very sure India will be declared a Hindu nation. I want that to happen because then no minority can crush us."

The RSS has flourished under Modi, claiming that the number of neighbourhood units — known as shakhas — has risen from 45,000 in 2014 to 73,000 today.

The RSS's ascendancy under Modi has alarmed critics, who point to rising hate speech and policies that human rights groups allege are aimed at turning Muslims into second-class citizens.

"The primary glue remains their Islamophobic viewpoint," says Mukhopadhyay. "On the one hand, they say everybody is free to follow their own faith in this country, but they also say everybody is a Hindu: the culture of this land is essentially Hindu."

Joining Shrivastava on his rounds in Rahul Nagar is Lakshmi Prakash Gorewar, a formidable 51-year-old who is head of the local BJP's women's wing.

Gorewar is from one of the lowest and most marginalised of India's caste groups. Modi is himself is from an underprivileged caste and one of the prime minister's triumphs has been to broaden the BJP into a mass movement that appeals well beyond its traditional base of upper-caste male Hindus to women and lower-caste Indians too.

The party has cultivated an army of workers like Gorewar to act as a bridge between the government and ordinary Indians, helping resolve bureaucratic hurdles and vowing to stamp out the corruption and pilferage that has plagued welfare distribution.

"Modi has worked a lot, and the workers have been working with their mind, body and financial strength," she says. "We are very committed to bringing Modi-Ji back in power. Women in particular want to see that happen."

"You cannot win in India by upper-caste patriarchy," says Devesh Kapur, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins University. "Once you've got a level of consolidation around [upper-caste] Hindus, then the next level is that you want to make sure that all caste groups are represented."

Election data from 2019 collected by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in New Delhi showed how a sharp shift in support among women and lower caste groups towards the BJP helped propel them to a majority.

"We see a range of surveys around the world that men are voting more rightwing and women are voting more leftwing," Kapur adds. "In India, it's an exception. Women have moved to the BJP."


The BJP's Sanjay Singh Rathour speaks to first-time voters in Bhopal. He says outsiders 'can't but be impressed with what they see, our dedication, discipline and service' © Anindito Mukherjee/FT


Rathour adds that 'when people see us they can see and feel our commitment and discipline, and they get connected to us' © Anindito Mukherjee/FT

Gorewar says women have benefited disproportionately, pointing to a cash-transfer programme for women and another offering subsidised cooking gas. (Modi this year announced a cut in cooking gas cylinder prices on March 8, International Women's Day.) They "have cemented the BJP's position among female voters", she says.

Residents of Rahul Nagar, who are primarily from lower castes, still tend to prefer the rival Bahujan Samaj party. Gorewar, who has held door-to-door meetings in the area almost every day for the past three months, explains it is her job to convince them otherwise.

Welfare has been a central part of Modi's appeal among India's hundreds of millions of poor and marginalised people. Since taking power in 2014, the prime minister has stepped up spending on social transfers and subsidies for food, fertiliser and housing, including a scheme in which more than 800mn people receive free rice and wheat. Even those programmes that existed before Modi have been branded for maximum political benefit, often by affixing his image to handouts.

Pankaj Chaturvedi, a spokesman for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, says the BJP's popularity comes from its ability to deliver. "[Activists] never tell you, 'Go and vote for the BJP'. They say: 'Go and vote for that person who is going to benefit you more,'" he says. "People can judge the difference."

Yet life in neighbourhoods like Rahul Nagar remains tough. Joblessness is high with nationwide youth unemployment at 45 per cent last year, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. And Gorewar is met with a chorus of complaints, mostly from women lamenting their struggles securing paperwork for food handouts or the lack of local drainage that leaves putrid water to cascade through the area.

At one point, Gorewar delights the crowd by haranguing a group of municipal electricity workers to improve local service. The party's welfare schemes "have cemented the BJP's position among female voters", she says.

To fund such a massive enterprise, the BJP needs deep financial backing, and it has found it, from donors large and small.

In addition to welfare, the party promotes a centre-right, laissez-faire, pro-big business economic agenda, and has through its history enjoyed support among business — from small-scale entrepreneurs to big conglomerates.

The symbiotic relationship between the BJP and business has become the subject of intense scrutiny in the build-up to the election, with Congress repeatedly attacking Modi for his close ties to billionaires like Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani.

Data from an opaque campaign finance scheme known as electoral bonds underscored how the BJP has dominated its rivals financially. The Supreme Court this year deemed the scheme, introduced by Modi in 2017, unconstitutional over its lack of transparency.

About half of the approximately Rs120bn donated went to the BJP, with leading donors including mining and construction conglomerates and India's so-called lottery king. Congress, by contrast, received only about 10 per cent.

The scheme was structured in a way in which only the government could know the identity of donors, meaning that business "had an incentive to give to the BJP over other parties", says Sukrit Puri, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The limited information available on electoral bonds and other officially reported political contributions is widely thought to underestimate the large amounts of undeclared party financing that analysts say takes place "off the books".

While most of the BJP's donations come from big business, judging by the limited public data available, the party actively deploys its grassroots network to court small donors.

Volunteers like Shrivastava are set fundraising targets and encouraged to collect micro-donations ranging anywhere from Rs1,000 to Rs10,000.


The BJP activists speak to local women in Bhopal. Election data shows how a sharp shift in support among women and lower caste groups towards the BJP helped propel the party to an electoral majority © Anindito Mukherjee/FT


Shrivastava holds up a receipt for a donation to the BJP. While most of the party's donations come from big business, it actively deploys its grassroots network to court small donors © Anindito Mukherjee/FT

Shrivastava, who receives a call from the BJP's state office while campaigning reminding him to meet his fundraising target, says the aim is not only financial but to create long-term relationships with local businesses. "If they can part with their money, then they will be associated with you for their lifetime," he says.

With the BJP's opposition in disarray, its financial dominance and deft blend of personality politics, welfare and religious nationalism has led to a sense of inevitability about the outcome of the poll. Warning signs for the government persist, including simmering frustration over unemployment, which the Modi government has struggled to contain despite a fast-growing economy from which India's conglomerates are profiting.

But analysts say that even after a decade, Modi's election machine appears to be stronger than ever. According to Kapur, the political scientist: "The thing that a lot of [commentators] simply don't get: They work harder than the opposition."

[Josquius]

It's depressing to see Indias steady descent away from such promise.
It is very clever of them that they push through their authoritarianism before any opposition has any chance to modernise and organise.
It seems the only hope is for the economy in India to go bad... But that would of course have very negative effects in itself so isn't exactly something to wish for.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - especially with Modi's history of inciting mass violence against Muslims. The reason he was banned from the US, for example, until he became PM (and also the US-India relationship became of high importance in relation to China). I mean here he is today in Rajasthan:
https://x.com/t_d_h_nair/status/1782048936301051957

It's dangerous and, as you say, quite depressing.

On the other side I don't really feel that it's very smart of them against the poor, benighted, helpless opposition. The opposition is the Indian National Congress which is historically the dominant party (and also the only party to impose dictatorship on India, so far).

You know, I think they deserve a fair bit of blame too for failing to modernise, for failing to build a "cadre party", for being a "leader party" that treats the leadership as something for the Gandhi family to just inherit - and, as I mentioned based on that journalist, for allowing the leaders and big organisers in the party to keep their job even if they're failing. I think Congress has had many opportunities to modernise and organise and (as a government) to deliver. The BJP and Modi are bad, but they were enabled by what looks like arrogance and complacency from Congress.

[HVC]

And yet people in the west still look at India as a counter to China rather then the next problem after China

[PJL]

And yet people in the west still look at India as a counter to China rather then the next problem after China

China was originally the counter to the Soviet Union, which in itself was the counter to the Nazis, and so on. It never ends. There's a name for this, it's called diplomacy.

[crazy canuck]

And yet people in the west still look at India as a counter to China rather then the next problem after China

China was originally the counter to the Soviet Union, which in itself was the counter to the Nazis, and so on. It never ends. There's a name for this, it's called diplomacy.

I think that is the charitable version - it is closer to the truth that the West viewed both China and India as untapped markets.

[HVC]

And yet people in the west still look at India as a counter to China rather then the next problem after China

China was originally the counter to the Soviet Union, which in itself was the counter to the Nazis, and so on. It never ends. There's a name for this, it's called diplomacy.

there's good, bad, and worse diplomacy. Current expediency shouldn't ignore future problems. Or to quote the classics "In this Caesar there are many Mariuses"

[Valmy]

I mean both India and China are naturally great powers. I am not sure an antagonistic relationship where we worked to hold both of them down was a better strategy.

I think the idea is we worked to give both a reason to support the current state of things. It didn't work with China...or at least not to the extent we would have wanted. No matter how weird things get inside of India is there any reason to believe they are going to be some kind of anti-Western force?

[HVC]

there's the whole extrajudicial murders in foreign states thing, that doesn't bode well.

*edit* and there the Russian thing too. India doesn't have to align with the west. And I'm not saying to actively keep them Down, but helping them ascend, a la China, with further economic growth is folly, in my view. You want to counter China/diminish their economy there are other saner* nations. Vietnam and other Asian nations. Their share Chinas pluses such as cheap labour and disregard for workers ( )) with a smaller chance of blowback.


*sane as an option, not in a internal politics sense.

[Valmy]

"The primary glue remains their Islamophobic viewpoint," says Mukhopadhyay. "On the one hand, they say everybody is free to follow their own faith in this country, but they also say everybody is a Hindu: the culture of this land is essentially Hindu."

You can have any religion you like provided it is Hinduism.

[Valmy]

there's the whole extrajudicial murders in foreign states thing, that doesn't bode well.

*edit* and there the Russian thing too. India doesn't have to align with the west. And I'm not saying to actively keep them Down, but helping them ascend, a la China, with further economic growth is folly, in my view. You want to counter China/diminish their economy there are other saner* nations. Vietnam and other Asian nations. Their share Chinas pluses such as cheap labour and disregard for workers ( )) with a smaller chance of blowback.


*sane as an option, not in a internal politics sense.

Well the idea is they should see how it is better for them to align with the West. And sure those other Asian nations may look sort of sane right now but nothing to stop them from also going down some nutty political path.

And unlike Russia and China, I don't think India has any direct territorial issue with the West that might cause problems...at least none that I can see.

[Sheilbh]

And yet people in the west still look at India as a counter to China rather then the next problem after China

I think it's a shift in power. In 1945 Europe and the US accounted for about 75% of the world economy, they're now about a third. China and India are a rising share of that and think (not unreasonably) that with that should come a share of world power which is still very Atlantic.

I'm not sure the US or Europe is particularly keen or willing to share that power (for different reasons and in different ways) but they need to accommodate India and China in some way - and soon, hopefully, they'll also need to accommodate a rising Africa.

I think that is the charitable version - it is closer to the truth that the West viewed both China and India as untapped markets.

Genuine question - is it more charitable to think it was to do with trade and the economy, or bloodless realpolitik?

I'm not sure - I think it's difficult to talk of the "West" in relation to either China or India. The UK almost immediately recognised the PRC, because of Hong Kong it needed a relationship with the mainland government and couldn't pretend the ROC was the "real China". A little later but France and Italy were also realist and, especially Italy, very early into China's economy.


I don't think economics was really the motive for the US dealing with Mao's China because I don't think that was a realistic goal in engaging with Mao and betting on "reform and opening" would have been very bold in 1972. I think it was a combination of factors. The US vetoing the PRC from entering the UN in favour of Taiwan was not sustainable, I think there was a countering the Soviets angle and I also think there was ego and excitement from Nixon and Kissinger of doing something historic. To flip it though - and I've no basis for this whatsoever (I have found a book on Zhou and will get it) - the reason you want to engage with the US is its cash. I slightly wonder if for Zhou opening the US to Mao's China was, like getting Mao to rehabilitate Deng and other leaders of "reform and opening", a way to orient the Chinese leadership on a path and checkmate the Gang of Four posthumously (not that he knew he was ill at that point - but was it part of that fight)?

With India I think Pakistan and the war on terror and China have all been as important as any econommic motivations. I also think, again to flip it from something the West does to something where Indian leaders are making choices, that the last bit of the Gandhi-Nehruvian consensus is non-alignment. I think India's state ideologically opposes power blocs and will not become part of one, but will work with different countries in different ways on an issue by issue basis. Which I think is something the US and the West find a little confounding, but is India's approach.

Having said all of that I think lots of Western countries and companies basically assumed massive market ???? PROFIT and have been shocked to discover that actually Indians and Chinese are also very good capitalists and not only able to make money in their own markets but to compete globally.

I think the idea is we worked to give both a reason to support the current state of things. It didn't work with China...or at least not to the extent we would have wanted. No matter how weird things get inside of India is there any reason to believe they are going to be some kind of anti-Western force?

Well what China and India will want is a say in the "rules based liberal order" which is commensurate to their heft economically and politically. I don't think the US is willing to countenance that for one second.

I think in general the areas and forums where those countries feel they have a say and a voice will be ones where they work wtihin the international structure that exists. In areas where they don't (e.g. finance) they will seek to revise the international order.

there's the whole extrajudicial murders in foreign states thing, that doesn't bode well.

I saw a fascinating article from an Indian commentator on that. It basically said that aside from whether or not it was right, it marked the rise of India as a great power because there were no consequences. He argued basically that India, like Israel or the US, could extrajudicially murder people overseas and no-one would or could do anything about it. No sanctions, no pariah status.

He didn't say this but basically it was a rather grim coming out party.

[Valmy]

In 1945 Europe and the US accounted for about 75% of the world economy, they're now about a third.

I am skeptical that in 1945 Europe was riding high economically...unless you are including the British Empire and the USSR in "Europe" there.

[Valmy]

they'll also need to accommodate a rising Africa.

Africa is not a political entity. Which Africa is going to be a great power? South Africa? Nigeria? Color me skeptical. At least with China and India is clear and obvious as to what they refer to and what a great power version of them even looks like.

And this seems to be becoming a meme like Brazil. Brazil is going to be a major power soon! Any day now! Just you wait!
The 20th 21st 22nd Century will be the Brazilian Century!

But we will see "Africa" seems poised for greatness in the abstract theoretical sense but it gets much messier when you look closely. Especially as there is no such country as Africa.

[Josquius]

And yet people in the west still look at India as a counter to China rather then the next problem after China

See also: the cold war.
Murderous autocratic fascist dictatorship?
This is fine.
Just so long as you're not socialist.
That's the important thing. Not democracy.

Except of course these days China should also qualify so... Hmm. :p