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Dead Pool 2024

Started by Josephus, December 26, 2023, 09:53:51 AM

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Sheilbh

Although this was him yesterday and he doesn't look likely to suddenly collapse and die:
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1758526609773252754?s=46&t=o9GOIj6BKKcLcHiyQTlAoA
Let's bomb Russia!

Barrister

Quote from: DGuller on February 16, 2024, 11:20:53 AM
Quote from: Jacob on February 16, 2024, 10:52:16 AMHis actions seem consistent with someone desiring a martyr's death.
It's definitely a possibility, but I don't think it's the only one.  Another possibility was that he just miscalculated how important he was, or rather how important he still was. I think it would be entirely in character for him to assume that the Russian government was now the most interested bodyguard of his; after all, they tried to off him quietly with poison designed to make your death look natural, surely that means that now they don't want you to die by any means lest people start wondering?

I think that he also failed predict how much more brazen the Russian government would get since his imprisonment.  Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Russian government almost completely unmasked itself and doesn't even both with appearances for the most part.  It's now publicly a lawless mafia state, with a very strong boss of bosses less accountable to other bosses than he ever was.  At this stage, "it'll look bad to have him whacked" thinking doesn't apply.

Yeah it's worth remembering how much Russia has changed during Putin's rule, how it's gotten more and more repressive.  I mentioned the upcoming elections, which are still happening.  But Putin has been pretty brazen about just disallowing any potential candidate who might give him the slightest opposition.

I think Navalny knew that if he stayed outside of Russia he would no longer have any influence - he would be branded as a foreign agent.  By returning he had to know he'd be imprisoned again - but I suspect he didn't factor in just how long and brutal it would be.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Zanza

Andreas Brehme, a German footballer, who scored the winning goal in the 1990 WC final dead at 63. RIP.

Duque de Bragança

#48
Artur Jorge, Portuguese former footballer and coach of F.C Porto during the 1986-87 European Cup conquest, and the French league PSG for the second time for the Parisians (pre-Qatar). Died at 78, due to cancer.

Tamas

Not that I don't have the deepest respect for Navalny, but it might just be that he made the calculation that he has X% to survive but if he does he'll become the next leader of Russia, and his ambition and/or desire for change made that a risk worth taking in his book.

It ain't that rare, lots of politicians in history seems to have made that decision to gain the glory necessary to gain power or die trying.

Maladict

Quote from: Tamas on February 22, 2024, 10:49:20 AMNot that I don't have the deepest respect for Navalny, but it might just be that he made the calculation that he has X% to survive but if he does he'll become the next leader of Russia, and his ambition and/or desire for change made that a risk worth taking in his book.

It ain't that rare, lots of politicians in history seems to have made that decision to gain the glory necessary to gain power or die trying.

I think he was the real deal, 100% stubborn idealism.

grumbler

Quote from: Maladict on February 22, 2024, 02:59:45 PM
Quote from: Tamas on February 22, 2024, 10:49:20 AMNot that I don't have the deepest respect for Navalny, but it might just be that he made the calculation that he has X% to survive but if he does he'll become the next leader of Russia, and his ambition and/or desire for change made that a risk worth taking in his book.

It ain't that rare, lots of politicians in history seems to have made that decision to gain the glory necessary to gain power or die trying.

I think he was the real deal, 100% stubborn idealism.

I agree.  I think that he understood that he himself, would never be the president of Russia and might not live to see the next one, but his political message was based around the slogan "never give up."  Taking that position tells me that he understood what "no matter what" meant.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Barrister

So the one thing about Navalny (though I very much admire his bravery) - is he was very much a Russian chauvinist.

He said racist things about central Asian people.  He was dismissive of Ukrainian independence - he attacked the Ukraine was for being bad for Russia, not intrinsically bad.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Tamas

Quote from: Barrister on February 22, 2024, 04:16:30 PMSo the one thing about Navalny (though I very much admire his bravery) - is he was very much a Russian chauvinist.

He said racist things about central Asian people.  He was dismissive of Ukrainian independence - he attacked the Ukraine was for being bad for Russia, not intrinsically bad.

Yes. As I understand he started his public appearance so to speak trying to get on with the far right or at least nationalist scene. He sure pivoted and it was probably sincere but - again grwt respect for his bravery - the only thing we have clear evidence of was his burning ambition to lead.

I mean, if Orban dies in communist custody in the late 80s he would be considered as a youjg liberal martyr.

Sheilbh

Let's bomb Russia!

HVC

Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

Josephus

I was watching a recent episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm and my first thought was, man he looks like shit.

Also, maybe intentionally, but the main conversation between his character and Larry David was who was gonna die first

Civis Romanus Sum

"My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world." Jack Layton 1950-2011

HVC

Well he was a long term Addict and alcoholic. Plus Parkinson's doesn't help.
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

Syt

Quote from: Josephus on February 28, 2024, 05:31:01 PMI was watching a recent episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm and my first thought was, man he looks like shit.

Also, maybe intentionally, but the main conversation between his character and Larry David was who was gonna die first



I think he didn't appear in some seasons because of his health. But yeah, he looked quite bad in later seasons.
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Barrister

Mentioned in the Canadian Politics thread, but - Rt Hon. Brian Mulroney.

Complicated figure in politics.  He won the biggest majority of all time - and the only Conservative* to win back-to-back majorities since Sir John A MacDonald.  His bringing in Free Trade with the US was transformative for Canada.

He also staked his legacy on two other matters - amending the constitution and bringing in the GST.  Amending the constitution crashed and burned spectacularly, twice, and directly led to a very near miss on Quebec leaving Canada.  The GST, which does still exist, was hugely unpopular.  It's no conincidence that after winning two majority governments, the PCs were then left lift all of two seats after Mulroney was done.

Mulroney was also dogged by allegations of corruption.  The Airbus scandal (where then-government-owner Air Canada purchased Airbus aircraft, rather than Boeings) was never proven, but always seemed highly suspicious.

He's left by his kids.  Caroline Mulroney is an Ontario cabinet member, his son Ben was a TV personality for a number of years.

Personally - I remember as a school kid argueing passionately in favour of free trade.  5 years later, in the first election I could vote in, I exulted in their defeat and the rise of my Reform Party.

But as always in death - I hope he rests in peace, and I feel sorrow for his family.


(*as I hinted at - he was a Progressive Conservative, although that party later merged to form the now-just-Conservative Party.  Just as I would never consider myself to be a Tory, Mulroney was never a Conservative).
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.