Israel-Hamas War 2023

[The Minsky Moment]

On what basis do you make such a specious claim? If it was so easy to build up a Hamas-tier military force under Israeli occupation, the various (and there are dozens of them) Palestinian militant groups that operate underground in the West Bank would have done so. Instead, all of them combined don't and have never represented even a sliver of Hamas's pre-war power.

On the basis of fact.
When Hamas was still one of the "Palestinian militant groups that operate underground" they managed to cut a bloody swath through Israel with a wave of suicide bombings that killed hundreds and wounded thousands. Rinky dinky terror forces can do extraordinary amounts of damage even without access to sophisticated weaponry.  That was part of Israel's strategy of relative benign negelct towards Hamas; the idea was once they were forced to come out of the underground and assume state-like responsibilities, they could be more easily monitored, countered and/or deterred.  It worked until it didn't.

Although Hamas did fire rockets on Oct 7, it was purely diversionary.  The assault did not involve lots of high tech equipment; mostly guys in regular vehicles with small arms.  Many of the participants were not Hamas, but belonged to some of the dozens of militant groups you referred to.  Hamas' main contribution was not some elite tier military force but basic coordination and planning.  And the real reason the attack succeeded was the shocking negligence of Israeli security forces.

If Hamas is suppressed, it will create a leadership vacuum, and something will step in.  Israel can try to keep some kind of proxy in by force, but the second they relax their grip, some other force will occupy that vaccuum.  And after what has happened in Gaza, it is unlikely to be appreciably less militant and violent.

[OttoVonBismarck]

When Hamas was still one of the "Palestinian militant groups that operate underground" they managed to cut a bloody swath through Israel with a wave of suicide bombings that killed hundreds and wounded thousands. Rinky dinky terror forces can do extraordinary amounts of damage even without access to sophisticated weaponry.  That was part of Israel's strategy of relative benign negelct towards Hamas; the idea was once they were forced to come out of the underground and assume state-like responsibilities, they could be more easily monitored, countered and/or deterred.  It worked until it didn't.

None of this happened until Israel withdraw from Gaza, so it goes back to my original point--you are assuming Hamas will be able to operate in a situation like it was before, and not one like the West Bank is under. Israel withdrew from all Gazan cities in 1994 (I think?) and only operate limited military bases on the fringe of the strip. The PA had administrative and day-to-day security control of the cities, where most everyone lived--in this environment Hamas was able to build up for the intifada.

Later under Sharon the IDF withdrew from the strip entirely, which expanded the scale at which Hamas could scale up.

What I am saying right now, and I think all realists who observe this are saying--we are not going back to a situation where the IDF isn't operating in Gaza, probably not for a decade or more.

At some point they will say the war is over and some other stuff will happen, but there won't be 15 (or more realistically, going back to 94) years of IDF staying out of the strip again.

None of this, btw, is to say this means good things for Israel. It is trading one type of problem for another.

[The Minsky Moment]

Sure if Israel maintains a constant security presence in Gaza, they will be able to deter the growth of another Hamas.  But there is a reason they withdrew in the first place, the cost of doing that is heavy.  Including direct financial cost, loss of fighting power and effectively to diverting forces to garrison duty, morale hits, and exposing the occupying force to opportunistic murders.

[crazy canuck]

Sure if Israel maintains a constant security presence in Gaza, they will be able to deter the growth of another Hamas.  But there is a reason they withdrew in the first place, the cost of doing that is heavy.  Including direct financial cost, loss of fighting power and effectively to diverting forces to garrison duty, morale hits, and exposing the occupying force to opportunistic murders.

And the important word there is "deter" not "eliminate"

[OttoVonBismarck]

Sure if Israel maintains a constant security presence in Gaza, they will be able to deter the growth of another Hamas.  But there is a reason they withdrew in the first place, the cost of doing that is heavy.  Including direct financial cost, loss of fighting power and effectively to diverting forces to garrison duty, morale hits, and exposing the occupying force to opportunistic murders.

Right--I mean Israel's political leadership is being facetious that there is any way out of the negative scenario of occupying Gaza. Incidentally one of the few things that could alleviate the bad would be a genuine commitment to the two state solution and working with the PA to move towards that, but that is politically unpalatable to the parties that run the Knesset.

[Threviel]

If, by some magic, a two-state solution would be implemented and Palestine becomes an independent recognised state what is to stop Hamas from winning elections and continuing the war?

I don't really see a long term winning scenario for Israel. There's really nothing they can do to deter a hysterically aggressive murderous neighbour from trying to murder them. They can hold the Palestinians down by force, but that will only work until it stops working.

[Josquius]

If, by some magic, a two-state solution would be implemented and Palestine becomes an independent recognised state what is to stop Hamas from winning elections and continuing the war?

I don't really see a long term winning scenario for Israel. There's really nothing they can do to deter a hysterically aggressive murderous neighbour from trying to murder them. They can hold the Palestinians down by force, but that will only work until it stops working.

This is the problem with democracy in the middle east in general really.
There's always a majority that have a habit of voting for ultra conservatives.
The old solution of secular authoritarian dictators isn't exactly brilliant either.
Oden knows what an actual solution could be.

[Threviel]

The solution would presumably be economic growth and better education in muslim states in general. As long as the people are poor and uneducated and without hope extremist solutions will have a target audience. If PLO had been able to deliver jobs, education and the promise of a better future Hamas would never have been elected.

Can't really see that happening in any kind of realistic way.

[crazy canuck]

The solution would presumably be economic growth and better education in muslim states in general. As long as the people are poor and uneducated and without hope extremist solutions will have a target audience. If PLO had been able to deliver jobs, education and the promise of a better future Hamas would never have been elected.

Can't really see that happening in any kind of realistic way.

And how would you deal with the ultra right in Israel?

[Razgovory]

The solution would presumably be economic growth and better education in muslim states in general. As long as the people are poor and uneducated and without hope extremist solutions will have a target audience. If PLO had been able to deliver jobs, education and the promise of a better future Hamas would never have been elected.

Can't really see that happening in any kind of realistic way.

And how would you deal with the ultra right in Israel?

Stop the rocket attacks.

[OttoVonBismarck]

If, by some magic, a two-state solution would be implemented and Palestine becomes an independent recognised state what is to stop Hamas from winning elections and continuing the war?

I don't really see a long term winning scenario for Israel. There's really nothing they can do to deter a hysterically aggressive murderous neighbour from trying to murder them. They can hold the Palestinians down by force, but that will only work until it stops working.

The same thing that stopped Egypt / Lebanon / Syria from continuing their wars against Israel.

The Palestinian cause is basically down on the mat right now with the referee at about a 5 count, their overall situation is very, very poor. Such desperation helps breed extremism.

In a hypothetical where there was a functioning Palestinian state, even if it was ran by people that hated Israel, over time they would likely care more and more about making their country run and work correctly and less and less about war with Israel.

One of the things that helped Israel's Arab neighbors shift to that way of thinking was simply that they had repeatedly lost wars against Israel. A Palestinian state would be faced with the same calculus.

But I also don't think you would ever see Palestinian statehood occur in which it is likely the first thing they would do is declare war on Israel. Even the most liberal Israeli politicians would not sign off on full statehood until the situation was significantly stabilized.

I think the bigger picture is this war rolls things back to the early 90s, functionally speaking. The whole idea of militarily leaving Gaza to its own devices was a strategic ploy, one that has bitterly failed for the Israelis.

They were active militarily in Gaza for 40 years, the reality is in the immediate sense that is the new norm going forward.

Beyond that who knows what happens. I think to some degree we Westerners often confuse these people (including the Israelis) as being more Western than they really are. Both of these groups seem pretty content to have been fighting for 75 years, I'm not convinced they feel as strongly that the fighting continuing indefinitely is as bad as we view it in the West. Both sides would rather have conflict than make the sort of concessions you would need to get to any sort of settlement.

I think we also frequently try to Westernize the conflict, and view Israel as being in a position of a typical Western power fighting some insurgency. But it isn't really like that. Israel isn't a typical Western country, it was founded as a Jewish ethnostate. It was the culmination of a Jewish political movement. Many of them genuinely believe they have a God given right to the entirety of the land between the river and the sea.

Americans get antsy about overseas wars the turn into long insurgencies--Israel was born out of insurgency, and has been fighting wars its entire life.

There's a lot of cultural and political views that would have to change in Israel I think before we get any real progress on a political settlement. And if anything, given the birth rates in the extremist communities in Israel it looks like the more secular Jews who want such a settlement are becoming a smaller share of the Israeli state over time, not a greater.

[grumbler]

If, by some magic, a two-state solution would be implemented and Palestine becomes an independent recognised state what is to stop Hamas from winning elections and continuing the war?

I don't really see a long term winning scenario for Israel. There's really nothing they can do to deter a hysterically aggressive murderous neighbour from trying to murder them. They can hold the Palestinians down by force, but that will only work until it stops working.

There is the fact that opinion polls have consistently shown that a substantial majority of Palestinians reject the Hamas approach and want a negotiated transition to a two-state solution.

[grumbler]

And how would you deal with the ultra right in Israel?

Stop the rocket attacks.

The rocket attacks have nothing to do with the Israeli right's violence against the Palestinians in the West Bank.  The very existence of Palestinians between the river and the sea angers and disgusts them.

[crazy canuck]

The solution would presumably be economic growth and better education in muslim states in general. As long as the people are poor and uneducated and without hope extremist solutions will have a target audience. If PLO had been able to deliver jobs, education and the promise of a better future Hamas would never have been elected.

Can't really see that happening in any kind of realistic way.

And how would you deal with the ultra right in Israel?

Stop the rocket attacks.

I'm not sure how that stops the ultra right for wanting to continue to build settlements.  Perhaps you could connect those dots for me.

[Josquius]

The solution would presumably be economic growth and better education in muslim states in general. As long as the people are poor and uneducated and without hope extremist solutions will have a target audience. If PLO had been able to deliver jobs, education and the promise of a better future Hamas would never have been elected.

Can't really see that happening in any kind of realistic way.

And how would you deal with the ultra right in Israel?

Stop the rocket attacks.

I'm not sure how that stops the ultra right for wanting to continue to build settlements.  Perhaps you could connect those dots for me.

Palestine bad. Israel good.