Israel-Hamas War 2023

[crazy canuck]

Is the reverse true?  Are Palestinian actions the cause of the rise of the far-right in Israel?

It is an interesting question.  I think the peace process in the 80s was more of a causal factor.  It was a right wing extremist who assassinated the Israeli PM in response to Israel coming close to finding a resolution with the Palestinians. 

[Jacob]

Has there been any credible speculation (or clear statements for that matter) of what Israel sees as its objectives?

My uninformed perspective is that Israel seems to clearly be pursuing these objectives:

1) Destroy any and all structures, materiel, and personnel (especially leadership) associated with Hamas that Israel can reach; as thoroughly and spectacularly as possible.

2) Keep Hizbullah and other actors from joining the conflict, with threats of apocalyptic responses (see the threats to attack Damascus).

When it comes to the hostages, all the reporting and commentary I'm seeing is along the lines of "well they've most likely been written off, this is war". I'm not seeing any statements that significant resources are being committed to locating and rescuing them - but that could because it's too early, and be because such effort are going to be kept quiet until they're acted upon.

I also get the sense that the Israeli response at this time is not unhappy about blowing up as much Palestinian stuff in general and inflicting massive damage on Palestinians as a whole.

So at this stage, the Israeli response seems to be focused on overwhelming retaliation, which is reasonable enough given the nature of the Hamas attack, and how recent it was.

But has there been any indication of Israeli objectives and policy beyond that?

[OttoVonBismarck]

1. Israel has been quite vague. They told Biden they were going in with a ground invasion, but no ETA on it. And no clear goal other than "we will change Gaza's reality" and various statements that they are going to do things "Gazans will remember for 50 years."

2. On the hostages, rescue is almost certainly not possible, but if there is even the slimmest chance, it would be done by special forces and they aren't going to discuss their plans. There are some leaders in the Arab world trying to pressure Hamas to release the women and children, I suspect because they realize the PR optics of keeping them is abysmal.

[crazy canuck]

Hamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

[The Minsky Moment]

If the indigenous population of Palestinians was not displaced through a process of colonization, what would you call that process?

War.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Hamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

I disagree--I think it is usually prudent to believe what they tell us. Hamas was talking hostage swap on day 1, and every indication is they assumed Israel would just do a few rounds of bombings and then negotiate.

Something worth remembering is not all actors make good decisions, and Hamas is a terrorist group with a shaky command structure--apparently only a small part of their military command even was involved in this operation's planning, which means lots of the organization would never have had a chance to weigh in or even possibly warn that the idea could be bad. It is not dissimilar to how Putin's Russia made decisions leading up to the Ukraine invasion, where lots of false ideas (like that they could just drop a few special forces around Kyiv and take the city's airport--that entire special forces team died to the last man) spread because of no critical voices in Putin's circle.

[OttoVonBismarck]

'Hard questions' will be asked after mass killing of civilians: Analyst
Sultan Barakat, a professor in conflict mediation and humanitarian studies at Hamad Bin Khalifa University, says the massacre of Israeli civilians should not have been carried out and Hamas leaders will investigate what happened.

"I suspect Hamas, when the dust settles, will be asking hard questions whether they could have achieved their objective without going into the civilian areas. I don't think these were predetermined attacks, particularly the music festival. They really could have hurt Israel just by concentrating on military bases and security checkpoints, which on its own is a great win for them," Barakat told Al Jazeera.

At least 260 people died at the Supernova music festival after gunmen arrived in paragliders, trucks and motorcycles.

[crazy canuck]

If the indigenous population of Palestinians was not displaced through a process of colonization, what would you call that process?

War.

Ok, but isn't that the same mechanism by which the US displaced much of its Indigenous population?  Would you say the US did not engage in actions of a colonizer?

[crazy canuck]

Hamas cannot have been hoping for a hostage swap given their brutality.  They must have done this hoping to create the reaction from Israel that is now coming. If it was not already an eternal conflict, it will be now.

I disagree--I think it is usually prudent to believe what they tell us. Hamas was talking hostage swap on day 1, and every indication is they assumed Israel would just do a few rounds of bombings and then negotiate.

Something worth remembering is not all actors make good decisions, and Hamas is a terrorist group with a shaky command structure--apparently only a small part of their military command even was involved in this operation's planning, which means lots of the organization would never have had a chance to weigh in or even possibly warn that the idea could be bad. It is not dissimilar to how Putin's Russia made decisions leading up to the Ukraine invasion, where lots of false ideas (like that they could just drop a few special forces around Kyiv and take the city's airport--that entire special forces team died to the last man) spread because of no critical voices in Putin's circle.

Good points.  I did not realize Hamas had made those statements. 

[The Minsky Moment]

'Hard questions' will be asked after mass killing of civilians: Analyst
Sultan Barakat, a professor in conflict mediation and humanitarian studies at Hamad Bin Khalifa University, says the massacre of Israeli civilians should not have been carried out and Hamas leaders will investigate what happened.

"I suspect Hamas, when the dust settles, will be asking hard questions whether they could have achieved their objective without going into the civilian areas. I don't think these were predetermined attacks, particularly the music festival. They really could have hurt Israel just by concentrating on military bases and security checkpoints, which on its own is a great win for them," Barakat told Al Jazeera.

I call BS.  Hamas has always been in the business of attacking civilians. Historically their main weapon was suicide bomb attacks on civilian targets.  This operation was carefully and extensively planned; they didn't just accidentally murder a huge number of civilians by mistake.

[Threviel]

Also difficult to see how they cold mobilize 1-2000 invaders, mock Israeli villages for practice, personel and equipment to fire 5000 missiles on a given day, equipment to go through the fence, and only have small numbers in the leadership inowing about it.

[Iormlund]

By following a classic terrorist cell-type structure, I'd guess.

Most participants might not have known of the scope until Saturday.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Also difficult to see how they cold mobilize 1-2000 invaders, mock Israeli villages for practice, personel and equipment to fire 5000 missiles on a given day, equipment to go through the fence, and only have small numbers in the leadership inowing about it.

Hamas has all the structures of a state, various ministries etc. Many of its top leaders and governing council are outside of its organizations that handle their military stuff. Same way the Secretary of the Treasury has no idea what missions the Navy SEALs are planning.

[Jacob]

Good points.

So maybe Hamas - or the decision makers within Hamas who organized the attack - thought "this will be a daring and impressive strike, and we'll get hostages that we can use for leverage" - and either they didn't appreciate how the massacre part of the action would change perception, or the massacre part weren't planned but happened somewhat spontaneously.

If so, then for Israel the main objective at this point is to draw a hard line and make the consequences so severe that Hamas or any other actors do not engage in such acts again. There doesn't really need to be any further goals or plan beyond massive reprisal on the theory that Hamas - and Palestinians in general - will learn "not to do this again" even if they build up the capability to (which Israel will do its best destroy).

Does that sound about right?

[Threviel]

Difficult to see a group tasked with taking hostages end up decapitating babies. Could they possibly have been medicated with anxiety-lowering medication, gang war style?