2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Solmyr]

It won't matter in the end because the SCOTUS will declare it a Trump victory.

[Habbaku]

It won't matter in the end because the SCOTUS will declare it a Trump victory.

Why didn't they do that in 2020?

[Sheilbh]

The chances of young men voting are low.  The chances of determined women voting are high.

If that is what this election is going to come down to, I am feeling much better.

Yeah - and a thing that I keep thinking may be significant and gives me a bit of hope is the GOP blowing up their mail voting infrastructure for Trump's 2020 bull.

I could be totally wrong but that feels like a massive, tactical mistake which will have consequences over multiple elections.

Edit: As I say I could be totally wrong and it might not matter but I just feel like it's big and we've not fully seen the impact yet.

[PJL]

It won't matter in the end because the SCOTUS will declare it a Trump victory.

Why didn't they do that in 2020?

Too many states went for Biden. I think that would be a definitely possibility this time if it all went down to Pennsylvania. But if more that one, then the SCOTUS will side with the Dems.

[PJL]

Otto FYI I have not read your long post on the small chance you are serious. Anyone voting for Trump, which is worse on what they think are policy reasons, is incapable of assessing politics and people.

I've never said I loved Trump--we have two choices in America. Unfortunately Kamala winning is a victory for figures like the Ayatollah, there's a reason they want her to win. They know the Democrats won't hold firm in support of Israel.

I don't think Kamala is personally sympathetic to the pro-pals, but she won't have the political power to stop their ascent within her party, and to maintain her power base she will have to capitulate on key issues to them.

If you feel like that, then the sensible course of action would be to vote for Harris as president but Republican down ballot. For the Republicans are more likely to be pro-Israel under Harris than Trump. Moreover according to John Bolton, Harris will provide continuity with Biden vis a vis foreign policy, whereas Trumps unpredictable and transactional nature will undermine US allies, including Israel.

[Gups]

If Harris wins this it will be because of women vote. Look for State Republicans to start campaigning for 1 household 1 vote rule.

It could be really interesting if both trends that have been talked about are true: independent (mainly white, mainly older) women breaking for Harris and younger Latino and African-American men breaking for Trump.

I think it might produce a pretty unpredictable map where you could see very white states like Iowa or Kansas swinging more Democrat while more diverse ones like, say, Virginia, North Carolina and Arizona in play for Republicans.

Edit: And I 'd add that I think the issue Harris has the strongest approval on is abortion which is +17 lead. I think gutting Roe v Wade transforms that issue. It's an issue she can talk about in a totally different way (for many reasons) than Biden which I think is possibly the biggest difference between them as candidates (obviously beyond Biden's capacity being an issue).

The chances of young men voting are low.  The chances of determined women voting are high.

If that is what this election is going to come down to, I am feeling much better.

A probably linked point is that the latest NYT/Sienna poll of swing states found 40% of voters had already cast their ballots and Harris had an 8% lead. Trump had a lead amongst those who hadn't voted yet but said they were very likely to. This gives me hope.

I was giving Trump a 65% chance a few days ago but leaning back towards a coin toss

[Josephus]

I was giving Trump a 65% chance a few days ago but leaning back towards a coin toss

Yeah I've been a bit more optimistic the last few days too. Fingers crossed

[HVC]

"It's the hope that kills you"

[celedhring]

It would be the cherry on top of one of the shittiest years I've ever had, so I have no doubt Trump will win.

(I know it won't affect me directly in the short term, but it will embolden our own far right).

[OttoVonBismarck]

It won't matter in the end because the SCOTUS will declare it a Trump victory.

Why didn't they do that in 2020?

Because it is largely an alarmist, nonsensical claim. There's two justices on the Supreme Court (Alito + Thomas) who might be willing to legitimately steal an election, but I even think for those two figures, you need a 2000 Bush v. Gore scenario. Which notably had several important factors:

• Election came down to a single state
• The state in question was incredibly close, with a fewer than 1000 vote margin in the initial count
• The butterfly ballot + punch card format meant it was incredibly difficult to actually conduct a reliable, accurate count no matter what level of recount was done. Additionally, due to partial impression, handling of the ballots could also "modify" the state of the ballot, which is an additional problem
• There is a genuine judicial controversy over the ongoing process, which has no clear precedent nor any clear "correct" resolution

FWIW, I have never said the decision in Bush v Gore was legally correct, but I do think it was a convoluted scenario in which even a perfectly nonpartisan court (which the 2000 court was not) would have struggled to determine in a way satisfactory to all. I also said at the time, pushing on 25 years ago now--that had the initial count been 500 in Gore's favor, I think the entire scenario would have played out with Gore winning. I basically think the machinery of our government defaulted to favoring the guy who won that initial, election night count. Right or wrong.

There's just no way the Supreme Court rolls an election result where you have multiple states. I think even if it came down to one state, if the margins were significant (say 15,000 or more) it is highly unlikely they would issue a ruling reversing whatever the initial count says.

[Josquius]

A thought. If this election does come down to women turning out and men not, and the breakdown on gender lines being as expected.... That's a really huge deal.
More so than the first woman president thing which is just a non issue this election.
I know crystal ball gazing types have for a while been predicting the rise of women and a flip in the balance of power. This could really stand out as the pivotal moment in that.

[Admiral Yi]

• There is a genuine judicial controversy over the ongoing process, which has no clear precedent nor any clear "correct" resolution

A "genuine judicial controversy" which the injured party made no attempt to adjudicate, believing it would be more advantageous to leave in the long list of unproven allegations of rigged election.

I assume you are talking about replacing Biden with Harris after the primary.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[crazy canuck]

A thought. If this election does come down to women turning out and men not, and the breakdown on gender lines being as expected.... That's a really huge deal.
More so than the first woman president thing which is just a non issue this election.
I know crystal ball gazing types have for a while been predicting the rise of women and a flip in the balance of power. This could really stand out as the pivotal moment in that.

It's not all men, it's young men.  And Otto.

[grumbler]

• There is a genuine judicial controversy over the ongoing process, which has no clear precedent nor any clear "correct" resolution

A "genuine judicial controversy" which the injured party made no attempt to adjudicate, believing it would be more advantageous to leave in the long list of unproven allegations of rigged election.

I assume you are talking about replacing Biden with Harris after the primary.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.

He's talking about Bush v Gore.  The USSC first stopped the recount, then two days later said that the recount could not be restarted because it couldn't be completed in time.  Had they not made the first ruling, they couldn't have made the second one either, because the recount would have been completed.  The halting of the recount process was not a genuine political controversy, it was a blatantly partisan ruling.[/list]

[Admiral Yi]

New poll has Democrats up in two Iowa Congressional districts, including mine.