2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Admiral Yi]

Well we should know for sure in the next couple of day when news polls come out. If they're still in dead heat territory than something is off. Even Nate has commented how the polls have been herding recently.

Yes, he said he suspects they're herding.  Which means they might not be.

[Grey Fox]

If Harris wins this it will be because of women vote. Look for State Republicans to start campaigning for 1 household 1 vote rule.

[Tamas]

Otto FYI I have not read your long post on the small chance you are serious. Anyone voting for Trump, which is worse on what they think are policy reasons, is incapable of assessing politics and people.

[DGuller]

There's  that old professor who's been predicting outcomes since Reagan and he's going for Harris. Given that he hasn't really been wrong yet...
Not sure what his name is, which is annoying me

I don't like the logic of "he's gotten X out of X calls right, he predicts Y".  It's a classic example of survivorship bias.  If you have enough people predicting coin flips, you'll have someone who predicted every coin flip correctly so far, that doesn't mean that they have special insight when it comes to the next coin flip.  There haven't been that many elections where a call went anywhere near 50/50.

[grumbler]

Otto FYI I have not read your long post on the small chance you are serious. Anyone voting for Trump, which is worse on what they think are policy reasons, is incapable of assessing politics and people.

Otto suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome.  Trump tells him that Harris is a commie Nazi Hamas supporter that wants everyone in the US to to be surgically gender-changed against their will, and he is so credulous that he believes it.

He's a lost cause, suitable only as an example of what happens when people buy into The Big Lie.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Otto FYI I have not read your long post on the small chance you are serious. Anyone voting for Trump, which is worse on what they think are policy reasons, is incapable of assessing politics and people.

I've never said I loved Trump--we have two choices in America. Unfortunately Kamala winning is a victory for figures like the Ayatollah, there's a reason they want her to win. They know the Democrats won't hold firm in support of Israel.

I don't think Kamala is personally sympathetic to the pro-pals, but she won't have the political power to stop their ascent within her party, and to maintain her power base she will have to capitulate on key issues to them.

[Razgovory]

The Ayatollah isn't winning right now, is he?  Rashida Talib has refused to endorse Harris, instead supporting Stein.  More and more Muslim are backing Trump.  I think we may see a permeant  reversal in Muslim voting patterns.

[Habbaku]

I can't wait until Israel is erased by a Harris win. East East Palestine should be our 51st state.

[crazy canuck]

The Ayatollah isn't winning right now, is he?  Rashida Talib has refused to endorse Harris, instead supporting Stein.  More and more Muslim are backing Trump.  I think we may see a permeant  reversal in Muslim voting patterns.

Yeah, if Trump wins Michigan it won't be because of people like Otto.  It will be because parts of the Left don't think a Trump victory is all that different from a Harris victory.

If you really want to get frustrated, the Know Your Enemy podcast just debated this question.

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/know-your-enemy/id1462703434?i=1000675316529

[frunk]

Long term it makes sense.  If all you want is the US to stop supporting Israel Republicans have a much longer history of isolationism.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

There's  that old professor who's been predicting outcomes since Reagan and he's going for Harris. Given that he hasn't really been wrong yet...
Not sure what his name is, which is annoying me

I don't like the logic of "he's gotten X out of X calls right, he predicts Y".  It's a classic example of survivorship bias.  If you have enough people predicting coin flips, you'll have someone who predicted every coin flip correctly so far, that doesn't mean that they have special insight when it comes to the next coin flip.  There haven't been that many elections where a call went anywhere near 50/50.

He seems to base his predictions on a number of relevant parameters, and apparently he hasn't been afraid to do some of his predictions years in advance.
So he might on to something.
Of course he also cautioned against taking his predictions as gospel since crazy stuff does happen.
But what he does seems a little more grounded than the polls, which say everything and nothing

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Otto FYI I have not read your long post on the small chance you are serious. Anyone voting for Trump, which is worse on what they think are policy reasons, is incapable of assessing politics and people.

I've never said I loved Trump--we have two choices in America. Unfortunately Kamala winning is a victory for figures like the Ayatollah, there's a reason they want her to win. They know the Democrats won't hold firm in support of Israel.

I don't think Kamala is personally sympathetic to the pro-pals, but she won't have the political power to stop their ascent within her party, and to maintain her power base she will have to capitulate on key issues to them.

And the gop has gone full putin, who is supporting and is being supported by the Chinese, dprk, Iran (those ayatollahs)... that means Russia an ally of hezbollah and Hamas, which neatly explains why these groups have been in Moscow recently...
So it looks to me as if you're rooting for the destruction of Israel

[OttoVonBismarck]

Lichtman's "keys" are pretty well known but AFAIK no one respects them as being any real scientifically valid thing. You can boil most of his keys down to "is the economy doing well using classical economic indicators", and you can generally map out that most of the time the party in power wins elections when those economic indicators are good, so in a sense that is all his keys really show. I think he has a few keys tagged to ephemeral things like "has there been a major scandal", "has there been a war declared" things like that.

[Sheilbh]

If Harris wins this it will be because of women vote. Look for State Republicans to start campaigning for 1 household 1 vote rule.

It could be really interesting if both trends that have been talked about are true: independent (mainly white, mainly older) women breaking for Harris and younger Latino and African-American men breaking for Trump.

I think it might produce a pretty unpredictable map where you could see very white states like Iowa or Kansas swinging more Democrat while more diverse ones like, say, Virginia, North Carolina and Arizona in play for Republicans.

Edit: And I 'd add that I think the issue Harris has the strongest approval on is abortion which is +17 lead. I think gutting Roe v Wade transforms that issue. It's an issue she can talk about in a totally different way (for many reasons) than Biden which I think is possibly the biggest difference between them as candidates (obviously beyond Biden's capacity being an issue).

[crazy canuck]

If Harris wins this it will be because of women vote. Look for State Republicans to start campaigning for 1 household 1 vote rule.

It could be really interesting if both trends that have been talked about are true: independent (mainly white, mainly older) women breaking for Harris and younger Latino and African-American men breaking for Trump.

I think it might produce a pretty unpredictable map where you could see very white states like Iowa or Kansas swinging more Democrat while more diverse ones like, say, Virginia, North Carolina and Arizona in play for Republicans.

Edit: And I 'd add that I think the issue Harris has the strongest approval on is abortion which is +17 lead. I think gutting Roe v Wade transforms that issue. It's an issue she can talk about in a totally different way (for many reasons) than Biden which I think is possibly the biggest difference between them as candidates (obviously beyond Biden's capacity being an issue).

The chances of young men voting are low.  The chances of determined women voting are high.

If that is what this election is going to come down to, I am feeling much better.