2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[crazy canuck]

I hope Trumpists start thinking they have it won.  Maybe a few of them decide it isn't worth their time to vote.

That's not going to happen. The whole thing about election fraud has convinced Trumpists they need to swarm the voting booth place to offset the inevitable attempts by Democrats to steal the election.

My fallback hope then is that they spend all their time observing the voting places on election day and forget to vote.

[Josquius]

Election related saw a funny/scary thing on Last Week Tonight.
Apparently the nuts are sharing around this clip from a right wing talk show where they proved illegal immigrants were voting by sending a guy around an apartment block where many of them lived. He said he was there to help illegals register to vote and many told him they were already registered- to get him to go away. Like you tell Jehovas you're a devout catholic already and don't need another god.

I hope Trumpists start thinking they have it won.  Maybe a few of them decide it isn't worth their time to vote.

That's not going to happen. The whole thing about election fraud has convinced Trumpists they need to swarm the voting booth place to offset the inevitable attempts by Democrats to steal the election.

I suspect so- it is a GOP tactic to spam shitty polls to make it look like Trump is doing better than he is, it wouldn't make sense for them to do that if their side being the ones to not turn out was a concern.

[Tamas]

And with the non-Trump side, it's a trap that you cannot win: if Harris or anyone else did the same kind of idiocy/gaffe  like one that results in overwhelming media coverage for Trump and seemingly if anything a rise in his support (and Biden did do such things on several occasions), they would get the media coverage but their support would plummet, like Biden's did.

But if they don't act like complete jackasses, they can't dominate the media like Trump.

I would never have thought that at the levels Trump has descended to, the race could still be this close. If despite everything he is able to maintain such strong support, maybe he is just a global natural disaster that is bound to happen

[grumbler]

Election related saw a funny/scary thing on Last Week Tonight.
Apparently the nuts are sharing around this clip from a right wing talk show where they proved illegal immigrants were voting by sending a guy around an apartment block where many of them lived. He said he was there to help illegals register to vote and many told him they were already registered- to get him to go away. Like you tell Jehovas you're a devout catholic already and don't need another god.

It wasn't really "many." It was a tiny sample and so the actions f a few people (some of which conceded that they were just trying to get rid of the annoying person at the door) seemed large.

[Admiral Yi]

My suggestion would be the positive case for Harris - whatever that is (as honed by the campaign). I feel like generally that should be the closing argument - think Obama's change, Trump's make America great again, Biden getting America back/putting it's soul back ("we're Americans" all the stuff about "who we are").

Do you want a positive case or do you want a slogan?

[Sheilbh]

Do you want a positive case or do you want a slogan?

It's the same thing. A good slogan is a candidate's political strategy and argument distilled (which is why you can't just move a slogan from one candidate to another - it needs to be rooted in the candidate and their argument.)

And to tie it back to Harris specifically - a criticism of her 2020 campaign was that it wasn't focused and was very reactive/responsive. It was always responding to and trying to bandwagon on x issue of the day. I do wonder if we've seen a little bit of that in the campaign since the convention. Just a little bit too much reacting and responding, not enough banging on about their own core message.

[Admiral Yi]

It's the same thing. A good slogan is a candidate's political strategy and argument distilled (which is why you can't just move a slogan from one candidate to another - it needs to be rooted in the candidate and their argument.)

This is ridiculous. Virtually every candidate in history has been in favor of "change" and had "hope."

[Sheilbh]

Okay - I'd argue more that literally every candidate in history have basically been a variation of "more of the same" or "change".

But I think that sort of demonstrates my point. The basic message really boils down to two things that everyone's heard before, so being able to work out an effective slogan (or, in another world, brand) really isn't easy. As I say in my view it needs to be rooted in who the candidate is (George H W Bush could not run as a hope and change candidate, or Angela Merkel could not foreground joy as a campaign asset) and tying it into their argument.

Much like, say, Coke or McDonald's brand identities - I don't think it's easy or something anyone else could do or something anyone could just copy.

[crazy canuck]

It's the same thing. A good slogan is a candidate's political strategy and argument distilled (which is why you can't just move a slogan from one candidate to another - it needs to be rooted in the candidate and their argument.)

This is ridiculous. Virtually every candidate in history has been in favor of "change" and had "hope."

It has been used consistently because it is has been consistently effective.

[crazy canuck]

Okay - I'd argue more that literally every candidate in history have basically been a variation of "more of the same" or "change".

But I think that sort of demonstrates my point. The basic message really boils down to two things that everyone's heard before, so being able to work out an effective slogan (or, in another world, brand) really isn't easy. As I say in my view it needs to be rooted in who the candidate is (George H W Bush could not run as a hope and change candidate, or Angela Merkel could not foreground joy as a campaign asset) and tying it into their argument.

Much like, say, Coke or McDonald's brand identities - I don't think it's easy or something anyone else could do or something anyone could just copy.

Yeah, almost every US election has the chant "Four more Years" or a variation of "Yes we Can" - if we change.

[Barrister]

Okay - I'd argue more that literally every candidate in history have basically been a variation of "more of the same" or "change".

But I think that sort of demonstrates my point. The basic message really boils down to two things that everyone's heard before, so being able to work out an effective slogan (or, in another world, brand) really isn't easy. As I say in my view it needs to be rooted in who the candidate is (George H W Bush could not run as a hope and change candidate, or Angela Merkel could not foreground joy as a campaign asset) and tying it into their argument.

Much like, say, Coke or McDonald's brand identities - I don't think it's easy or something anyone else could do or something anyone could just copy.

Things are exactly perfect and I promise no changes whatsoever" has never been a winning slogan in any election in all of history.

The difference has always been "we're on the right path" versus "we're on the wrong path" is how every party has dealt with "change" in an election.

[Sheilbh]

Things are exactly perfect and I promise no changes whatsoever" has never been a winning slogan in any election in all of history.

Which is why you're a conservative not a reactionary

The difference has always been "we're on the right path" versus "we're on the wrong path" is how every party has dealt with "change" in an election.

Fair - and I meant "more of the same" as more don't change a winning team etc than everything is perfect so there'll be no further change

[Valmy]

I think parliamentary politicians might face a bigger challenge. In our system it is absolutely the case that you can become President or Senator or even Governor and really have only very limited ability to actually advance your agenda because of all the checks and balances and so forth. So you come back saying "hey return me to office and we can continue to chip away towards our political goals."

But for people who basically have carte blanche legislatively and in an executive sense like a Parliamentary politician I have a hard time imagining how they can promise that they can get it done if given just a few more years. You almost have to say "protect the status quo from our horrible opponents!" don't you?

[Admiral Yi]

(George H W Bush could not run as a hope and change candidate, or Angela Merkel could not foreground joy as a campaign asset) and tying it into their argument.

Wubya could have run on hope and change just as easily as Bubba or Barry.  Wubya's centerpiece was No Child Left Behind, as Bubba nd Barry's were revamping health care.

Your Merkel point I concede. 

[Sheilbh]

Wubya could have run on hope and change just as easily as Bubba or Barry.  Wubya's centerpiece was No Child Left Behind, as Bubba nd Barry's were revamping health care.

Your Merkel point I concede. 

George H W Bush, though?

(I do think after Bill Clinton's "boy from Hope" campaign that Mike Huckabee's "time to give Hope another chance" was very good )