2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Zanza]

I think several of the Republican contenders are authoritarian and might go for a Orban-like erosion of American democracy versus Trump's more open coup instigation. Not convinced that's the better alternative, as it might be more successful and pervasive than Trump's blunt narcissism and personality cult based attempt.

[Valmy]

BY anyone else's standards... there's one only candidate who tried to overthrow the government.  So yes.  Stop me if you've heard this before - anyone but Trump.

The GOP is politically, morally, ethically bankrupt at this point. Anyone but Trump is hoping that a bunch of other fascists are as incompetent at governing as he was. 

I agree that the GOP is bankrupt but I think BB has it right.

Thus far Trumpism without Trump has been pretty weak electorally. I still think getting Trump himself defeated is mission #1. These other guys are a concern...sure...but I just don't see a fanatical cadre forming behind DeSantis or Nikki Haley or Pence or whomever. And if somebody is going to set themselves up as a fascist dictator they need a fanatical cadre willing to do things the rest of us won't. And they need a cause to get a majority of the people super engaged. Twitter-brain nonsense about anti-wokeism, in the style of DeSantis, isn't going to get it done.

Can a engaging leader who can mobilize the real grievances of Americans and form a fanatical party behind him and pair that with experience and knowledge of a political operator with intelligence and skill emerge? Sure. But nobody behind Trump has any of those talents.

The primary goal is to see Trump defeated. Trumpism without Trump is certainly a thing that will need to be dealt with, but it kind of seemed like it is being dealt with in the 2022 election for example. His hand picked candidates faced defeat.

I just don't see this super talented brilliant boogieman out there. But even if there was I don't see how that changes anything. We are already engaged in a political struggle with the right wing populists on every front. It is not like we are hiding some secret weapon waiting to mobilize it at some point.

[Josquius]

Is there any candidate with a chance who isn't a fascist shit bag?

By your standards, no.

You guys do love pulling this one out of your arse.

BY anyone else's standards... there's one only candidate who tried to overthrow the government.  So yes.  Stop me if you've heard this before - anyone but Trump.

From all I've heard De Santis is the same but competent (hes the one with the stupid Martha's vinyard refugee troll?)
Heard some ridiculous nonsense from some minor candidates too.

But someone like Jos or Oex - Trump's biggest sin isn't the whole overthrowing democracy bit - it's that he's right-wing.  Which I understand, kind of, but profoundly disagree.

So if a left of centre person pulled the same shit he'd be fine?

[Oexmelin]

But someone like Jos or Oex - Trump's biggest sin isn't the whole overthrowing democracy bit - it's that he's right-wing.  Which I understand, kind of, but profoundly disagree.

 

Trump's biggest sin is appealing to an existing authoritarian strain in the American right and amplifying it tremendously. That is a siren's call that is being answered by many on the right - not just in the US, but elsewhere too. That is my main concern. That a lot of the GOP have cynically embraced this, and a not insignificant part of the GOP actively, and genuinely embraced this, has to be punished.

To pin everything on Trump is missing that underlying trend, and making yourself blind to similarly concerning types of stunt-politics, Schmittian embrace of power for power's sake that exists, and thrives, quite outside of Trump.

Trump fits very poorly on the right-wing dichotomy. But the people who are applauding, and egging him on are right-wing. I know this is uncomfortable if you self-describe as conservative, but that's how it is right now. 

[Grey Fox]

But someone like Jos or Oex - Trump's biggest sin isn't the whole overthrowing democracy bit - it's that he's right-wing.  Which I understand, kind of, but profoundly disagree.

Being right wing is to want to overthrow democracy.

[OttoVonBismarck]

As a lifelong Republican until 2016, I generally think any Republican is a danger to the Republic.

Trump is a certain type of danger--the type to try an overt autogolpe or coup, albeit in a manner that is highly unlikely to actually succeed.

The anti-democratic bent of basically all Republican Federal judges appointed by Trump, however, is to my mind a long term risk.

We have a Supreme Court now who has basically said there is no judicial remedy to even the most serious gerrymandering. We have instances where States like Ohio have been told by their own State Supreme Court to follow a citizen passed law against gerrymandering--the legislature simply refused. The court largely did nothing about it, because the State Supreme court lacked any strong remedy under its powers and the Federal courts refused to intervene. The Ohio Republicans then won some Supreme Court elections the next election cycle which removed the majority on the court that was trying to uphold the duly passed citizen initiative against gerrymandering.

While that is one State's narrative, variations of it are happening across red states. State legislators are largely making it so it is all but impossible for Democrats to wield power, even if they win substantially more than 50% of the total votes cast in State legislative races. The States that allow citizen referendums, which could be a potential bulwark against this, are duly passing laws stripping away the referendum process.

The Federal Supreme Court is doing everything it can to destroy unions, a major source of opposition to Republican policies, it has forced us to permit unlimited campaign spending (before Citizens United, billionaires spent around $30m on an election cycle, they now regularly spend $2-3bn a cycle.)

The Federal Supreme Court is letting States pass laws like Texas's SB6, which before Dobbs, let the State "end run" around Roe v Wade by letting "private litigants" use a bounty system to harass people engaging in otherwise constitutionally protected behavior. This Supreme Court has had ample chances to address it, and refuses, leaving the laws in place. The "bounty system" style laws being used to target otherwise constitutionally protected behaviors have spread to other subject matters of Republican concern and other States.

When Democrats have attempted to adopt similar tactics, the right wing judiciary blocks them, showing clear political favoritism.

America has always had an archaic and flawed democracy, but the Republican party is systematically abusing every single element of those flaws to entrench minority rule right now, and about the only fix I can see against that is for Democrats to win elections--and a lot of them. Most importantly they need to hold the White House often enough and long enough to whittle away at the massive tilt to the right of the Federal judiciary (not just the Supreme Court, but the judiciary as a whole.)

Another major thing Democrats need to do is learn to wield power when they have it far more ruthlessly. A good example is the concept of the Senate "blue slip" on Federal judicial nominations. Historically, a "blue slip" has allowed a Senator from a given State to basically "block" a judicial nominee in the committee level that he did not like. This rule allowed more conservative States to generally influence the shape of judges appointed from their region even if they were the minority party in the Senate. This was a tit-for-tat rule, it meant that more liberal areas had more liberal judges appointed and more conservative areas had more conservative judges appointed. It did not mean a Democrat was going to appoint a far right judge, but it tempered the sort of judges they could appoint.

Under Trump, Republicans largely quit allowing blue slips and pushed through far right judges in courts all across the country. Now that the Democrats control the Senate, they are letting Republican Senators use blue slips to stop Biden from doing the same. Just another in a long list of examples where Democrats are behaving asymmetrically in what is truly a fight for the Republic.

[DGuller]

If you're going to say that Donald Trump is a unique moral hazard to American democracy - then you have to act like it.  Anyone but Trump.

If you're saying Asa freaking Hutchinson is just as bad as Trump because they both, I dunno, support a 6 week abortion ban (I have no idea what Asa Hutchinson's abortion policy is - same with Trump actually) then you're completely losing the plot.

To get to the point...

I don't like many of De Santis's policies - but I don't think he'll try to overthrow democracy.

Mike Pence - I don't mind some of his policies, hate that he worked with Trump, and know from past experience he won't overthrow democracy.

I could go down the list but you get the idea - some candidates I like (Tim Scott seems pretty good), mixed on others, hate others - but it has to be Anyone But Trump.


But someone like Jos or Oex - Trump's biggest sin isn't the whole overthrowing democracy bit - it's that he's right-wing.  Which I understand, kind of, but profoundly disagree.

Beeb, I think that you're often getting unfair flack for being one of the few conservatives left here, but here I think it's going to be fully deserved.  It almost looks like you're playing dumb here.  Justifying support for non-Trump candidates by talking about policy seems like a deliberate obfuscation, when the real issue is the systematic dismantling of democratic institutions.  Every single GOP politician on the federal level is fully onboard with whatever new measures are enacted to further shield GOP power from the voters.

[grumbler]

I can see the point Beeb is making, but I disagree that anyone is preferable to Trump.  DeSantis would do far more damage to the US than Trump if either were elected.  DeSantis knows how to enact policies that effectively target the "evil minority of the day" whereas Trump only knows how to bluster about them.

I disagree completely that DeSantis would not try to overthrow democracy.  He'd just be more subtle about it.

Pence is more narrow-minded than DeSantis, but also much less likely to punch down for anything but religious reasons.  He's not a demonizer or a threat to democracy, but also is very unlikely to get elected, given the grudge so many in his party hold against him for "betraying" Trump by certifying the election.

I think that Trump is too damaged to win a general election, so he's probably the one I'd like to see win the nom.

[Barrister]

I think that Trump is too damaged to win a general election, so he's probably the one I'd like to see win the nom.

When polled, voters right now prefer Trump to Biden, 45.5 to 43.7.  Trump also beats Harris 46.8 to 42.5.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

It was a close election last time magnified by all the pandemic stuff.  Now obviously a lot of time between now and November 2024 but it's ridiculous to say Trump can't win.  Trump has a fanatical base of support unlike any other candidate out there.  FFS he still has people out there thinking he's a great businessman from The Apprentice, while other's thinking he's personally selected by God (or Q, or both) to be leader.  A lot of Americans still think he won in 2020.

As for indictments, enough people think it's just "the deep state" taking its revenge on him.

If it winds up being Biden, I think we're just one Biden health scare, or one economic downturn, away from Trump 2.0.


And I get what you're all saying about Republican gerrymandering, or Supreme Court Justices, or DeSantis trying to bully Disney.  But that's all still authoritarian in a normal 'within the lines' kind of way.  Trump is the one who has called for the Constitution to be overturned.

If it winds up being DeSantis vs Biden then you can all try to convince me (and my all important non-citizen non-vote) to support Biden go ahead.  But we're at the GOP Primary stage, and the only priority should be stopping Trump.

[PJL]

And I get what you're all saying about Republican gerrymandering, or Supreme Court Justices, or DeSantis trying to bully Disney.  But that's all still authoritarian in a normal 'within the lines' kind of way.  Trump is the one who has called for the Constitution to be overturned.

If it winds up being DeSantis vs Biden then you can all try to convince me (and my all important non-citizen non-vote) to support Biden go ahead.  But we're at the GOP Primary stage, and the only priority should be stopping Trump.

Got it - you're more okay with Hitler passing the Enabling Act in 1933 than with him trying to do a coup / overthrow the Bavarian regional govt from the outside in 1923. At least the former to you is within the system. Getting rid of democracy is okay if it's legal.

[PJL]

IMO, the biggest danger to the US right now is what happend to 1940's South Africa or what Hungary is like under Orban. I don't think it will be as extreme as the Nazis under Germany, but there is a very real risk that the US will be become a 'partial' democracy, where only the right sort of people will have a disproportinate voting share (a bit like Tsarist Russia between 1905-1914).

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't think that's a fair representation of BB's point.

That being said, I do disagree that Trump is a unique threat. Trump didn't create any of the trouble we have, he is a symptom of the trouble. That trouble is that a large segment of the country has become "enraged", by a number of things. We could debate it to death, but it mostly appears to be rage about violations of cultural values, uppity blacks, LGBT people who dare to exist outside of private residences and etc. These people see an apocalypse coming--because younger people overwhelmingly are hostile to anti-ethnic minority views and anti-lGBT views, even many young conservatives do not share the level of vitriol this core group of angry MAGAites have--at least not in the same percentages as Gen X and Boomers.

If anything, Trump is just a really gross, really bombastic expression of this cultural rage. This cultural rage has created deep acceptance of the idea that anything is justified if it keeps Democrats from getting elected. Since Trump is just a symptom, and his expression of it is often incompetence, it is not the case that opting for a more competence / restrained person with the same goals and thoughts is safer. DeSantis is never going to run a coup, be he will continue policies and judges that will make America less and less democratic.

America is likely not meaningfully vulnerable to a real coup in its current form, what it is vulnerable to is what has happened in Hungary or Russia or countries like that. Where you do things that are mostly legal to just steadily make the country undemocratic. Boiling the toad is an apt analogy.

[Barrister]

And I get what you're all saying about Republican gerrymandering, or Supreme Court Justices, or DeSantis trying to bully Disney.  But that's all still authoritarian in a normal 'within the lines' kind of way.  Trump is the one who has called for the Constitution to be overturned.

If it winds up being DeSantis vs Biden then you can all try to convince me (and my all important non-citizen non-vote) to support Biden go ahead.  But we're at the GOP Primary stage, and the only priority should be stopping Trump.

Got it - you're more okay with Hitler passing the Enabling Act in 1933 than with him trying to do a coup / overthrow the Bavarian regional govt from the outside in 1923. At least the former to you is within the system. Getting rid of democracy is okay if it's legal.

What?

I'm saying Trump=Hitler in your scenario.  (Note I wouldn't ordinarily make this comparison - PJL started it).

Hitler also made it quite clear, in 1923, that he wanted to overthrow the existing government.  So you have to oppose Hitler no matter what.

If you have a chance to put Hermann fucking Goring in charge of the Nazi Party in 1933 you go ahead and do it.  Anyone But Hitler.

Now obviously this is not a great analogy.  In large part because obviously the entire Nazi party was rotten to the core, whereas Trump helped take over an existing party that still has at least some muscle memory of being much more responsible (did you see the attack by Ted Cruz on the Ugandan "death to gays" law, and the attacks he got in response?)  And like I said - I'd LOVE to see Tim Scott become the nominee, as one example.

So yeah - maybe Goring winds up being as bad as Hitler in the end.  But we know how fucking bad Hitler is.

[Valmy]

I can see the point Beeb is making, but I disagree that anyone is preferable to Trump.  DeSantis would do far more damage to the US than Trump if either were elected.  DeSantis knows how to enact policies that effectively target the "evil minority of the day" whereas Trump only knows how to bluster about them.

I disagree completely that DeSantis would not try to overthrow democracy.  He'd just be more subtle about it.

Pence is more narrow-minded than DeSantis, but also much less likely to punch down for anything but religious reasons.  He's not a demonizer or a threat to democracy, but also is very unlikely to get elected, given the grudge so many in his party hold against him for "betraying" Trump by certifying the election.

I think that Trump is too damaged to win a general election, so he's probably the one I'd like to see win the nom.

Does DeSantis know how to enact these policies? Is he this smooth political operator? Because he kind of seems like a blunderer to me. He got fortunate in a big way with his Covid policies in Florida. And good for him and good for Florida, I guess I don't live there so I don't know exactly the nature of his policies and what their impacts were but Floridians seem to like them. But I haven't seen him have a similar touch since.

But again I am not discounting the fact that these other people are dangerous. They have proven they can be. What makes Trump uniquely dangerous is his ability to attract fanatical followers and appeal to people outside of the conservative bubble. The normies. When I hear DeSantis talk he is going on and on about wokeness and COVID and all this stuff that if you are not in the conservative social media bubble you probably do not care about that stuff at all. I just don't see "DEFEAT WOKENESS AND NO MORE COVID SHUTDOWNS" mobilizing the masses.

So I agree that defeating Trump is #1 priority. Anybody is better than Trump. But I also agree they are all bad and should all lose. If I knew how to do that I would be advancing that plan. The all Republicans lose all the time plan. But there is no such strategy. We have to take this one step at a time. Step #1: Stop Trump. Step #2: Stop whomever the person is who stopped Trump.

[Barrister]

So I agree that defeating Trump is #1 priority. Anybody is better than Trump. But I also agree they are all bad and should all lose. If I knew how to do that I would be advancing that plan. The all Republicans lose all the time plan. But there is no such strategy. We have to take this one step at a time. Step #1: Stop Trump. Step #2: Stop whomever the person is who stopped Trump.

I maintain some hope that whomever Stops Trump might be worthy of supporting, but you get it.

#1 Stop Trump.

If #2 is Stop the next guy, then so be it as well.