2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[OttoVonBismarck]

I have mixed feelings on that, Biden is a weak candidate but I am not convinced any likely Dem nominee is not weaker.

The big thing that worried me in the 2020 primary is the strongest candidates other than Biden were all people that IMO would do much worse than Biden in a general election. Sanders / Liz Warren are popular but I can't see them doing as well in Georgia / Arizona, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Biden seemed likely to lose to Sanders in the primary if not for the intervention of a powerful black democrat before a key primary, and the willingness of the other centrist Democrats to clear the field for Joe.

It's been talked about to death and I don't fully understand the "why" of it, but I can think of 10 viable Republican Presidential figures who could run, I cannot think of any strong Democrats of that same stature. All the high ranking Democrats I can think of who could challenge just seem to have bad structural issues.

Sanders / Warren are far too lefty, ditto AOC. Kamala Harris (fairly or not) has a poor personal political brand at this point.

Who does that leave us with?

J.B. Pritzker (Governor Illinois)
Gavin Newsom (Governor California)
Pete Buttigieg (SecTrans)

Do we really think those three seem very strong as candidates? I guess I don't see it.

The Dems have a real problem here in terms of lack of "bench." Meanwhile the GOP have a lot of "plausible" figures:

Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Glenn Youngkin, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie

[Valmy]

Who does that leave us with?

J.B. Pritzker (Governor Illinois)
Gavin Newsom (Governor California)
Pete Buttigieg (SecTrans)

Do we really think those three seem very strong as candidates? I guess I don't see it.

I don't know. But Bernie didn't have a strong brand until he started running. If these governors started running for President one could get traction. Most of the "strong bench" the Republicans have seem like duds to me, but you might have a stronger sense of the right leaning independents that went Biden than I do.

[Jacob]

I'm dismayed by Biden's announcement that he will seek reelection.  I hope he pulls a Johnson and pulls out later.

Why?

Because you have something against Biden's policies or personality and there are other candidates you personally would find more palatable?

Or do you personally find Biden just fine, but worry that he's less likely to win due to age or some sort of baggage?

[Admiral Yi]

Why?

Because you have something against Biden's policies or personality and there are other candidates you personally would find more palatable?

Or do you personally find Biden just fine, but worry that he's less likely to win due to age or some sort of baggage?

Mostly because he looks like a walking cadaver.  Partly because I get the impression the general public is somewhat buying into the Republican attack lines.  Partly because I disapprove of cancelling student debt via presidential directive.  Partly because he's a little spendier than I'm comfortable with.

[Sheilbh]

I'm dismayed by Biden's announcement that he will seek reelection.  I hope he pulls a Johnson and pulls out later.

I really like Biden and I think in terms of actual policies and delivery, he's possibly the most effective and impressive president in my lifetime.

But I do think he's a little old and worry about him in a general election.

The problem is, as far as I can see, the Democrats have a very weak bench - and frankly that's on them even just in terms of post-Biden if he wins another term. It feels like it's been an issue since Obama's victory (and I think part of the problem is leaders hanging around for too long in senior positions which makes it challenging to refresh the party/allow others to build a national profile). Harris has not impressed - weirdly she's a bit like DeSantis for me, on paper I thought they sounded like very compelling candidates for their parties, then I saw them

I see lots about Whitmer but it seems probably too soon for her? Aside from that it seems like a lot of 2020 candidates who either I don't think have really improved their position (Harris, Buttigieg, Klobuchar) or are not compelling if you want to replace a candidate for being too old (Warren, Sanders). Maybe Newsom, maybe Pritzker - but it's not an exciting selection with someone who is clearly and obviously superior to Biden.

I also think that in 2020 it felt to me like the only candidates who really thought it was even worth Democrats trying to win blue collar, white working class voters at all were Sanders and Biden - and they came at it from different perspectives and with different values. I'm not sure of the leading Democrats that there's many who want to make that pitch/have that vision of the party - and, I could be wrong, but I think it is still a necessary part of any Democratic pitch.

[Valmy]

Yeah the Diane Feinstein disaster isn't the first time we have seen that in the Senate. The Democrats are really suffering because she didn't step aside. And it is entirely nonsensical in her case since there was a zero chance her place was going to be taken by some Republican.

And the Presidency is a job that traditionally takes in young spunky politicians and spits out old broken gray haired retirees. It is just such a high stress and demanding job. An 80 year old seems a very risky choice.

And Biden was always considered kind of a goof ball and man of highly flexible convictions. He did kind of gain some softness as old uncle Joe as he got older and picked up some of that Obama shine. He has done better than I would have thought he would have done but he was never seen as this great leader.

Finally it is way past time for these Baby Boomers to go into retirement. Trump, Biden, the lot of them. They need to be playing golf. It is time to get people more in touch with the modern times to be the leaders of this country.

[Admiral Yi]

There is simply zero chance a person who looks like Klobuchar will ever win the presidency.

[Valmy]

The problem is, as far as I can see, the Democrats have a very weak bench

The only way to get a strong bench is to run people for President.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm not a Biden fan but I wasn't a big fan when I voted for him. I basically knew the spending and student debt stuff would come with his election (I also strongly assumed the SCOTUS would quash any student debt forgiveness--even though I think the law allows it, wisely or unwisely). Unfortunately when we as voters are put into situations where we're picking between Biden and Trump, there's only bad options and determining which is less bad. To me Biden is easily less bad.

The reality is a good Democratic candidate is probably more lefty than I personally want, since I recognize I am not really a genuine part of the Dem base--I'm a NeverTrumper in permanent exile since the GOP went full fash on us.

I've said it before but I really think the Dems were unlucky with Obama's timing. Obama is much more suited to be a politician of this era IMO than the era in which he ran. A Democrat with strong charisma who is very grounded in practical government. Like I spent a lot of Obama's Presidency dogging on him, and I still take issue with some of his governing style and specific policies. But just in terms of being someone who can energy his party's voters and navigate the current moment, I think Obama would be stellar.

Biden to his credit is also grounded in practicality maybe moreso than Obama, in fact I think Biden has gotten a lot more done with bipartisan legislation than Obama was able to do. But Biden is really bad in a number of ways--he has poor charisma. He had poor charisma at age 50 too, but now he has poor charisma and is visibly very, very old.

I also think Biden is generally a weak campaigner. He was very fortunate that 2020 you could basically get away with a "Rose Garden" campaign. 2024 won't be like that.

[garbon]

I actually want Trump to win the nomination.  Cause I know he won't win the presidential election

Those were my thoughts in 2016.

Yes. I recall being in Palm Bea h listening to him and Palin and thinking what a joke.

[FunkMonk]

With Florida likely closed off for the foreseeable future, is the capture of Arizona/Georgia again likely needed for Joe to win? Those were pretty close and I'm unsure if he'll do well enough to win there again.

[DGuller]

My main concern with Biden is that the perception of him being mentally feeble is there, and it's shared by many who aren't even Trump voters.  Whether that's fair or not is beside the point in politics, it's a narrative that will not go away, and will have confirmation bias going for it.  Every video of him pausing while walking, stumbling while walking, or shitting while walking, will be used to reinforce that narrative.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Right, I think that is one reason Ron would likely beat him. But unless the state of play changes a lot, it will be Trump v Biden, and people prone to worry about cognition probably already jumped off the Trump train in 2020 and aren't likely to go back. Like I don't speak for all the centrist Biden voters, but speaking for myself I thought Biden seemed unfit for the Presidency in 2020, but Trump was more unfit and more dangerous. Like I said, bad choices.

Edit: FWIW, in terms of most of his political actions and governing, I think Biden has done a fine job. I have some gripes with some policies. I think Biden has actually gotten a lot more done for Democrats than many of the Democrats who elected him with their noses held would have expected. Now, I don't know if that's because he's just so bad at public speaking he is actually a lot better intellectually "in real life" than he appears, or if we have a "Prime Ministership" going on where his staffers are really running the country (ala late stage Reagan.) I'm fine with either option if the alternative is Trump.

[OttoVonBismarck]

With Florida likely closed off for the foreseeable future, is the capture of Arizona/Georgia again likely needed for Joe to win? Those were pretty close and I'm unsure if he'll do well enough to win there again.

So of the states that have flipped back and forth between '16 and '20, if Biden holds WI, PA and MI and loses AZ and GA, and everything else stays the same, he wins 276-262.

Remember part of why Trump's election fighting efforts were so uphill battle is even if he could flip AZ and GA (which he couldn't), he still needed one more Biden state to flip.

Most likely a lot of these states move in tango though, in most scenarios where Biden wins, I assume he wins all 5 of these, and in most where he loses he probably loses at least 4 of them.

The only hitch is abortion scrambles it a bit. From everything we can see the GOP politics on abortion right now really hurt them badly in PA / WI / MI, whilst being less of a problem in the Sun Belt.

[Josquius]

I'm dismayed by Biden's announcement that he will seek reelection.  I hope he pulls a Johnson and pulls out later.

Yeah. Me to. I thought there was some kind of unspoken agreement that he was conscripted just because getting Trump out of office was such a priority that we needed some steadying and non-scary Obama hold over. He seemed like he was doing this act of public service and then stepping aside for the younger generation. Granted Kamala Harris was a dud as a hand picked successor but...was that particularly surprising after the Democratic Primary?

But I guess that is a danger of having unspoken agreements. So now we are looking at the prospect of two not particularly liked men in their 70s running for President.

It'll be curious to see trump attack bidens age. I really hope Biden points out he said the exact same shit about him when he was 2 years younger than the current trump...


Honestly I'm quite comfortable with bidens announcement. He did seem to be just a bland Meh at least America isn't collapsing anymore steady hand but he has turned out rather good.