Where will be the focus of Ukraine's next big counter attack?

[Josquius]

:panzer:

[Admiral Yi]

voted Mariupol

[Crazy_Ivan80]

 No Jaron option?

Anyway, I'm  guessing to the south: melitopol - berdyansk - mariupol. Cut the occupied region in half, capture a biggest port to deny it to the enemy, cuts the railways to Crimea and brings kerch in range to permanently take that bridge out of commission.

[chipwich]

Brest-Litovsk

[celedhring]

No Jaron option?

Anyway, I'm  guessing to the south: melitopol - berdyansk - mariupol. Cut the occupied region in half, capture a biggest port to deny it to the enemy, cuts the railways to Crimea and brings kerch in range to permanently take that bridge out of commission.

What worries me about that, is that the flanks of such an advance look very vulnerable to me...

I'm thinking North Luhansk, that would fuck over the Russian troops in the rest of the Donbass.

[mongers]

I'd laugh if the Ukrainians did something like 1904-05 but properly and seized Vladivostok by amphibious assult. :grin:

[Valmy]

No Jaron option?

Anyway, I'm  guessing to the south: melitopol - berdyansk - mariupol. Cut the occupied region in half, capture a biggest port to deny it to the enemy, cuts the railways to Crimea and brings kerch in range to permanently take that bridge out of commission.

If this was a game of HoI4 that is exactly where I would attack. But I don't know how realistic that is in real life.

I wonder if something that would surround and destroy the forces attacking Bakhmut, Operation Uranus style, would be more realistic. I don't know.

[The Larch]

If Ukraine manages to get a reasonably strong tank force with what it is getting from the West it'd make more sense to use them in the south, where the geography is better suited for that, and leave the Donetsk/Luhansk grinder alone for the time being.

[mongers]

Or less ambitiously, what about a strike WNW from Kharkiv, were they had so much success inthe summer and head for Saratov and then onto the nearby Kazakh border?

That way Ukraine cuts off half of Southern Russia incl all russia forces in Ukraine and they get to bag Engels strategic airforce base on the way, picking up a few nice Tu160s.

[The Larch]

Or less ambitiously, what about a strike WNW from Kharkiv, were they had so much success inthe summer and head for Saratov and then onto the nearby Kazakh border?

That way Ukraine cuts off half of Southern Russia incl all russia forces in Ukraine and they get to bag Engels strategic airforce base on the way, picking up a few nice Tu160s.

I think that if the Ukrainian army enters Russian territory in force and takes the war to them is bringing the nuclear clock much closer to midnight than anyone would be comfortable with...

[Jacob]

My credentials are purely airmchair derived, but I'd think there are some other risks involved in entering Russia as well.

If there were ever Ukrainian troops in Russia there's a high risk that we'd be seeing images of Ukrainian excess against Russian civilians (whether real or manufactured), which in turn could affect the narrative around the war. I also expect it would significantly help Putin's domestic situation and likely generate a "rally to defend to motherland" effect among civilians and troops.

So IMO the potential gains from entering Russian territory in force would have to be fairly high to outweigh those risks.

[Valmy]

Any invasion of Russian territory is a political impossibility IMO. Ukraine is too dependent on international goodwill.

[Josquius]

Any invasion of Russian territory is a political impossibility IMO. Ukraine is too dependent on international goodwill.

An unfortunate fact that Russia can really exploit as ukraine retakes more territory.

[Sheilbh]

My credentials are purely airmchair derived, but I'd think there are some other risks involved in entering Russia as well.

If there were ever Ukrainian troops in Russia there's a high risk that we'd be seeing images of Ukrainian excess against Russian civilians (whether real or manufactured), which in turn could affect the narrative around the war. I also expect it would significantly help Putin's domestic situation and likely generate a "rally to defend to motherland" effect among civilians and troops.

So IMO the potential gains from entering Russian territory in force would have to be fairly high to outweigh those risks.

Also I think if this war demonstrates anything it's that people are willing to fight for their national territory - even if they're perhaps less motivated for national "territory".

So I agree totally - but I'd add that I think it would have a big effect on the morale and will to fight of Russian soldiers. I think it would profoundly transform the war Ukraine was fighting.

[PJL]

Or less ambitiously, what about a strike WNW from Kharkiv, were they had so much success inthe summer and head for Saratov and then onto the nearby Kazakh border?

That way Ukraine cuts off half of Southern Russia incl all russia forces in Ukraine and they get to bag Engels strategic airforce base on the way, picking up a few nice Tu160s.

I think that if the Ukrainian army enters Russian territory in force and takes the war to them is bringing the nuclear clock much closer to midnight than anyone would be comfortable with...

Yeah that's my concern when they enter Crimea for precisely that reason. But the Ukrainians should at least try first.