Nigeria's election

[Sheilbh]

Coming up in two days and it looks really interesting with the Nigerian Labour Party candidate possibly about to have an upset win - and probably one of the most important this year given how big and rapidly growing Nigeria is:

Young Nigerians warming to outsider Peter Obi in final race for presidency
Polls put businessman ahead of the two main parties in next weekend's elections seen as key 'inflection point' for African country
Jason Burke Africa Correspondent
Sun 19 Feb 2023 10.00 GMT

Polls in Nigeria have placed outsider candidate Peter Obi in the lead before presidential elections next weekend, heralding potentially sweeping change in Africa's most populous nation.

A win for Obi, a 61-year-old businessman turned politician, would overturn politics in Nigeria, ending decades of dominance by the two main establishment parties.

Analysts and commentators describe the election as a key "inflection point" for the country 24 years after the end of military rule. The vast country, which has Africa's biggest economy, is seen as a bellwether for democracy on the continent but is suffering multiple economic, political and social crises.

"All elections are important, but there really is a lot riding on this one. It is really important that this election is credible, is free and perceived as fair," said Leena Koni Hoffmann-Atar, an expert at London's Chatham House foreign affairs thinktank.

Though some pollsters have gushed that Obi "has captivated the country", others are cautious about the his chances of securing power.

Recent surveys have suggested Obi has between a 10% and 40% lead over his rivals, but many experts warn this could fast disappear if turnout is low, meaning a probable victory for the ruling party candidate, 70-year-old veteran powerbroker Bola Tinubu, whose slogan is: "It's my turn." More than 90 million Nigerians are eligible to vote, but less than half may actually cast a ballot.

Obi has sought to offset the advantage enjoyed by the vast political machines of the ruling All Progressives Congress and its main opposition, the People's Democratic party (PDP), through the use of social media and efforts to reach out to all communities rather than mobilise an existing loyal base.

This has led to a surge of support among young urban voters. "This is a very young electorate ... truly a Nigerian democratic generation – and the last eight years [of Muhammadu Buhari's rule] have been quite brutal for them," said Hoffmann-Atar.

A former state governor, Obi ran as the vice-presidential candidate for the PDP in 2019 but switched to the tiny Labour party last year, launching a grassroots campaign touting his experience as an administrator and outsider status that swiftly gained momentum.

Obi, a Catholic, has projected an image of a competent reformer who will tackle the country's huge problems without fear or favour. He has been helped by the evident age of other candidates and corruption allegations against several rivals. High-profile efforts to bridge Nigeria's deep ethnic and religious divides have also won support among some voters.

"Obi is viewed as a mould-breaking politician, talking about reform and doing things differently ... But it remains to be seen if he could follow through on that if he became president," said Matthew Page, a Nigeria expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Washington-based thinktank.

Few doubt the scale of the challenges facing the eventual victor. Inflation is running at record levels, Nigeria's currency has plummeted in value and there have been riots in recent days after the central bank botched an attempt to introduce new banknotes.

Thousand died in attacks by bandits, criminals and extremists across the country in 2022. A wave of kidnapping for ransom has reached into previously safe towns and cities, while the police and armed forces are widely viewed as inefficient, corrupt and brutal.

Obi's campaign pledge to apologise to victims of police brutality – a key mobilising cause for young people in recent years – has resonated widely with the youthful demographic.Though jihadists associated with the Boko Haram organisation and the Islamic State's regional branch are embroiled in a bitter internal conflict, they could still attempt to disrupt the election or its aftermath, said Vincent Foucher, an expert in extremism in west Africa with the French National Centre for Scientific Research.

One possibility is that Obi will take enough votes to prevent his rivals winning in the first round, which requires a simple majority of all votes and 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of the country's 36 states. A second-round run-off would be a first in Nigerian electoral history and might risk further instability.

"Nigeria is an incredibly resilient country, but the question is: when do these multiplying crises just get too much," said Page. Nigerians are choosing the person who may have one of the last opportunities to change the trajectory of the country."

Kind of love the bluntness of the incumbent party candidate's slogan: "it's my turn"

[Josquius]

Fingers crossed for them he is what he seems and it won't just be switching who is at the centre of the Web of corruption.

Assuming he wins. Looks good though with the data on young people registering.

[Zanza]

"It's my turn'" is great. Very authentic messaging.  I guess most politicians think that, but very few say it.

[Valmy]

We'll see. I don't know if a political juggernaut like Nigeria's APC can be taken down in just one election, no matter how corrupt and shitty they are...actually probably because they are corrupt and shitty.

I will certainly be paying some attention to how it turns out though.

[Josephus]

I have a direct interest in this. One of the politicians sent me an email offering to give me 20 per cent of a large sum of money that I have to keep in a bank account until after the election.

[Sheilbh]

We'll see. I don't know if a political juggernaut like Nigeria's APC can be taken down in just one election, no matter how corrupt and shitty they are...actually probably because they are corrupt and shitty.

I will certainly be paying some attention to how it turns out though.

Although it is a two party system. It's only two elections ago that the PDP won big. I've no idea and it'll be really interesting to see how the Labour Party does across the country given that the PDP has historically been big in the south and the APC in the north. I've no idea if Labour - especially given that, from what I've read they were basically a minor party taken over by a big-name candidate - have a similar sectarian/regional base or if they're more national.

I know very, very little. But it's a huge country, that's growing rapidly so is important (I think of Jake's thread on this as well) so feels like it should have some good reporting and deserves a thread.

[Valmy]

I know very, very little. But it's a huge country, that's growing rapidly so is important (I think of Jake's thread on this as well) so feels like it should have some good reporting and deserves a thread.

Well it is growing but its rate of growth is fortunately slowing, much like the rest of Africa.

I have followed Nigeria off and on over the years and my experience generally doesn't make me super hopeful that things are going to work out quickly. Typically Nigerians don't vote in large numbers (which you would expect in a country so young) so if by some miracle this was a high turnout election well that might make a big difference. But hey we will see. I am a little jealous Nigeria has the good sense to have their elections on a Saturday.

[Valmy]

This probably isn't a good sign: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nigeria-s-electoral-body-suspends-senatorial-election-after-candidate-killed/ar-AA17TJG6

Nigeria's electoral body suspends senatorial election after candidate killed

Abuja (Reuters) -Nigeria's electoral commission has suspended the senatorial election in southeastern Enugu, where the opposition Labour Party candidate was killed, the commission's chairman Mahmood Yakubu said on Friday.

One opposition party candidate and the driver of a campaign minibus belonging to another party were killed in a series of coordinated attacks in Enugu State on Thursday ahead of an election on Saturday, police said.

"There will be no senatorial election in Enugu East senatorial district," Yakubu said at the Independent National Electoral Commission's (INEC) news conference, it's last ahead of Saturday's election.

"Materials already delivered for the senatorial election will remain in the custody of the central bank in the state until the new date for the election."

Yakubu said voting for the senatorial seat would now be held on March 11, when Nigerians elect the country's state governors.

Nigerians are due to elect their next president and lawmakers against a chaotic backdrop of armed conflict in the northeast, high levels of crime and shortages of cash, fuel and electricity.

[viper37]

Bola Tinubu* has been elected President.  The opposition is contesting the results.


*From the party that was in power, APC.

[Josquius]

So much for hope of democracy then.

[Admiral Yi]

The problem in Nigeria doesn't seem to be lack of democracy, at least I understand the term, but an electorate which is content to elect corrupt officials.  The voters of Iraq freely and fairly elected corrupt officials.  The voters of South Africa freely and fairly elected Zuma.

[Sheilbh]

The problem in Nigeria doesn't seem to be lack of democracy, at least I understand the term, but an electorate which is content to elect corrupt officials.  The voters of Iraq freely and fairly elected corrupt officials.  The voters of South Africa freely and fairly elected Zuma.

Well they voted for Buhari for two terms who had and still has a reputation for personally not being corrupt and for being very anti-corruption.

But he's been a really bad President in every other respect and in terms of getting things done. He's really ineffective. It's a bit like Ghazi literally writing books on failed states so should be a great leader of Afghanistan - and yet.

That probably goes to why corruption can endure is that it is very often a way of getting things done and if it's embedded in a system it can be difficult to replace. It's why political machines emerge. Just trying to end it without building up functioning state capacity to replace it I think is probably doomed to failure.

Also the election was chaotic and the opposition are saying it was rigged - although I'd note that Obi narrowly beat the winning candidate in his home state which would seem odd in a rigged election. But this is another in a run of elections since 1999, there have been peaceful transfers of power between parties in those 24 years, the democratic institutions seem to be growing stronger (if not necessarily more competent in this election) and this is the first election in 24 years where none of the candidates have a military background. There may be more allegations to come out but I don't think we can dismiss hopes of democracy on an insurgent, unexpectedly popular third party candidate failing to actually win. 

[viper37]

The problem in Nigeria doesn't seem to be lack of democracy, at least I understand the term, but an electorate which is content to elect corrupt officials.  The voters of Iraq freely and fairly elected corrupt officials.  The voters of South Africa freely and fairly elected Zuma.

But he's been a really bad President in every other respect and in terms of getting things done. He's really ineffective. It's a bit like Ghazi literally writing books on failed states so should be a great leader of Afghanistan - and yet.

So, it's like voting for Justin Trudeau, but you don't even get things done with corruption.

[Valmy]

So much for hope of democracy then.

It was not going to happen in just one election. The APC is too powerful of a political force.

The results from the senate and house are still outstanding though.

A President, House of Representatives, and a Senate? Sounds like they used our Constitution as a model

[Gups]

The problem in Nigeria doesn't seem to be lack of democracy, at least I understand the term, but an electorate which is content to elect corrupt officials.  The voters of Iraq freely and fairly elected corrupt officials.  The voters of South Africa freely and fairly elected Zuma.

Reading Francis Fukuyama's Political Order and Decline in which he argues pretty convincingly that the creation of a democracy prior to the creation of an independent bureaucracy almost inevitable creates a patronage/client based system in which votes are exchanged for favours. He cites Greece, Italy and the US up to the progressive era reforms contrasting to Prussia/Germany and Britain.