2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD

[Barrister]

But yes, it's "just" that they haven't found an alternate candidate. It'll be a bit of a challenge for "them" (whoever they are) to find a suitable candidate.

Yeah. It just feels profoundly humiliating if you're McCarthy (although maybe he's inured to that after Trump), to have to go through this vote repeatedly when there seems like a very limited chance you have the votes.

Best case scenario, you become the weakest Speaker in living memory. Worst case scenario, you're just repeatedly humiliated on national TV for a few days.

Not strictly linked to this - but I feel like the Republicans don't really have someone who can count votes at this point or they're just not able to even talk to each other.

I seriously do not understand the strategy of holding repeated votes you know you are going to lose.

Apparently several of McCarthy's opponents will vote for him in return for prime committee appointments.  Matt Gaetz for example wants to chair the Armed Services Committee.

That almost certainly won't work though as those assignments have almost certainly been promised to others...

[Sheilbh]

It makes no sense. I get there's divides which make it difficult to work out a position but are there no smoke filled rooms left to do this in private, not on the floor?!

Also lots can happen but after an election cycle when the Trumpiest bits of the GOP lost, this feels like it'll get the attention of voters in a not great way for the GOP.

[Barrister]

It makes no sense. I get there's divides which make it difficult to work out a position but are there no smoke filled rooms left to do this in private, not on the floor?!

Also lots can happen but after an election cycle when the Trumpiest bits of the GOP lost, this feels like it'll get the attention of voters in a not great way for the GOP.

It will.

But it'll allow Gaetz, Boebert and co to raise a butt-load of donations and keep them on Fox News.

[Admiral Yi]

Matt Gaetz for example wants to chair the Armed Services Committee.

Two solid years of hearings on THE DEBACLE AT KABUL.

[grumbler]

When you elect clowns, you get a circus...

I'm stealing this.

[Jacob]

Matt Gaetz for example wants to chair the Armed Services Committee.

Two solid years of hearings on THE DEBACLE AT KABUL.

That and "we must stop feminization and woke madness from making our armed forces weak and disgusting!"

[Admiral Yi]

That and "we must stop feminization and woke madness from making our armed forces weak and disgusting!"

Yeah, I sometimes forget that's a thing.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, I don't know what they will do as I've said a number of times. If Gaetz and such are angling for high-ranking committee positions--the time to make demands like that was ages ago when this is all traditionally hashed out. As noted, by waiting, those posts have certainly been promised to other Republicans who are already supporting McCarthy. If he reneges on those agreements, he likely loses votes there too, and again--with only a 5-defector threshold that isn't going to work.

As to why can't the Republicans count votes, I think it is as said--they don't know how to talk to each other anymore. Gingrich fired the first salvo in this back when he took over as Republican leader, he started calling members to his office if he found out they were going to lunch with Democrats or socializing with Democrats. This started the process of creating parties that struggle to talk with each other. The Senate still has some of that old collegiality, the House does not. Then the practice started to become normalized of many members, especially on the right, not maintaining homes in Washington, they typically fly on Tuesday mornings and stay until Friday morning and fly out, staying in temporary housing. They don't make connections in the city, by design.

Some of this started to come to a head when firebrands from the Tea Party movement were elected in 2010, but it was tempered both by the large Republican majorities, and the fact at least a decent chunk of Tea Party firebrands were actually experienced politicians of varying backgrounds--so they at least understood how procedural things needed to occur. There are signs some of the new crop came to that realization too--see MTG, but some of that 2010 crop that never learned are still around, and some new ones who have joined them (Gaetz, Boebert), essentially have never for one minute worked in a House that worked under the norms of collegiality. In fact, they have never served in a majority that has--even the ones who got elected in 2010. They normalized the concept of just never agreeing with their own Speaker and forcing him to get Democrats to vote with him to get very regular legislation done.

The problem is that can't work for the Speakership election, and the margin is so small rules change can't bypass them (because it would throw the election to Jeffries.) It's a real pickle basically where about a 12 year process of "total" obstructionists have accumulated enough votes, at a time when the Republican majority is small enough, that they may have paralyzed the Republican caucus.

If this gets resolved, and I'm guessing it will, it may very well involve pretty corrupt backroom shit--i.e. big Republican donors making personal promises to some of the holdouts or something like that. Most of them don't seem to be persuadable by many of the ordinary carrots. Some of them like Perry and Biggs have literally been in Congress for years now refusing to participate in any form of governing at all, it seems highly unlikely they will change for any reason. Some of the "new imbeciles" like Boebert and Gaetz seem pretty corrupt so I wouldn't be shocked if there are ways to buy them. The problem goes back to how small the majority is, even if they get half of these guys squared away you still have 6 more you need to wrangle before you can get to a viable vote.

To show you how some of these people are operating--McCarthy is a major Republican fundraiser (most people in position to vie for Speaker are), his leadership PAC he controls funneled millions of dollars to some of these same people who are now refusing to let him become Speaker and also refusing to even promote a viable alternative, so in thanks for him helping them get elected they are...making their entire party seem incoherent and ungovernable.

I don't really know how you negotiate with them, like I said, I think some of these people move, but the fact there are 20 of them and I know some of the most recalcitrant ones are literally mentally ill-level insane. To give you a rundown on some of the worst:

Paul Gosar - Associated with Holocaust deniers and right wing militia / violence groups like the Oathkeepers / Proud Boys. In 2018 he spoke at a rally in London of the English Defence League, an extremist group in the UK.

Bob Good - Has appeared in Virginia with local militia groups, has expressed views at times suggesting he believes Christian theology should trump civil / constitutional law, he once voted against legislation designed to reduce domestic violence on the premise that "instead people should follow God's laws."

Lauren Boebert - Has embraced the QAnon conspiracy theory, has expressed the belief the separation of Church and State should be ended, and has said she does not believe non-Christians should be allowed to hold elected office, she once accosted a group of Orthodox Jews touring the U.S. Capitol asking them if they were on a "reconnaissance mission" which confused both them and most political observers.

Mary Miller - Has expressed support for Christian nationalism and supremacy of religious rules over civil laws, two days into her first House term in 2021, she quoted Adolf Hitler at a rally of "Moms for America."

These are some of the most crazy. Of the 20--12 maintain to this day Trump actually won the 2020 election, 19 formally objected to the vote certification, they are also the core of a small group of Republicans that have voted against the following things:

- Admission of Finland / Sweden to NATO
- Awarding Capitol Police Officers who were injured on January 6th the Congressional Gold Medal
- A Congressional denunciation of the Myanmar military coup

These bills all had as few as 12-21 Republican objectors so it's the true fringe here. They also were part of somewhat larger but still small groupings of House Republicans to vote against more expected things like Defense Authorization bills, Ukraine funding and etc.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Gaming out a 'sequence of possible outcomes', I think it may look something like this:

1. McCarthy by hook or crook finds a way in. If this happens it likely involves dealmaking to get the current 20 objectors down to a relatively small number. There is strength in numbers, as the objectors shrink, a nastier amount of lensing can be applied to a few of the final holdouts. Maybe Trump even steps in to denounce them--all of these candidates are extremely loyal to Trump and based their entire 2022 campaigns on fealty to Trump as an organizing principle. It is possible in such a scenario Kevin gets to a low enough defector number he gets in.

2. They will reach a point of "exhaustion" with Option 1 and the caucus is going to move on. I think the immediate next choice would be Steve Scalise, he is the 2nd in leadership and is a little more conservative (but not much) than McCarthy. I also think at least some of the opposition to McCarthy is as simple as these objectors are recalcitrant hostage takers, who dislike anyone "in charge", since McCarthy was in charge they have personal ire towards him--possibly reduced for Steve Scalise who was only number two. Undermining this a bit is at least some of the 20 have made comments saying they wouldn't support Scalise either, as he has been associated with some things they dislike (i.e. facilitating basic operation of the U.S. Government.) Scalise likely picks up some of the 20 right away though, and may have a better chance of whittling down the opposition.

It is possible Scalise isn't interested, in which case this role is filled by another conservative but mainstream part of the caucus, Elise Stefanik of New York being a top option and then a few other lesser knowns.

3. If #2 is exhausted I think things start to get really convoluted and crazy. Potentially deals will be bandied about with the Democrats. Possibly the threat of such deals encourages enough of the 20 to break and vote for a Republican who can get a majority vote.

McCarthy has said just recently he doesn't want another vote tonight, and he thinks talks are "progressing", how true that is, or how fruitful that may be, we can only guess.

[viper37]

McCarthy has said just recently he doesn't want another vote tonight, and he thinks talks are "progressing", how true that is, or how fruitful that may be, we can only guess.

7 votes now, still undecided.

Biden is either laughing at the GOP's stupidity in his office or pulling his hair because nothing gets done.  Can't decide how this will reflect on the GOP for their long term electoral prospect.

[Admiral Yi]

He's not going to pull his hair.  He paid good money for it.

[viper37]

He's not going to pull his hair.  He paid good money for it.

Well, AOC seems to be laughing at it at least.

Edit:

[Valmy]

Scalise and any of these Republicans: https://archive.is/iMwCb are unacceptable. The Democrats should staunchly oppose all of them.

Now a Republican who didn't vote to overturn the 2020 election maybe something can be done. But McCarthy and Scalise and the rest of them are dangerous insurrectionaries who should never be trusted.

[Syt]

Is there a chance that moderate Republicans (if they still exist: P ) just go independent or switch over to the Democrats, enabling the possibility of a D speaker?

[viper37]

Is there a chance that moderate Republicans (if they still exist: P ) just go independent or switch over to the Democrats, enabling the possibility of a D speaker?

The dreamer must awaken.