2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD

[Valmy]

Is there a chance that moderate Republicans (if they still exist: P ) just go independent or switch over to the Democrats, enabling the possibility of a D speaker?

Zero chance. It would end all of their political careers.

Well I don't know. Maybe there is one or two who might conceivably change parties and the Democrats in their district would be happy to vote for them and the district is purple enough for them to win elections...but that is a special unicorn in today's gerrymandered districts and not enough to flip the House.

[HVC]

Any really old republican that can retire on a laugh?

[Josquius]

McCarthy has said just recently he doesn't want another vote tonight, and he thinks talks are "progressing", how true that is, or how fruitful that may be, we can only guess.

7 votes now, still undecided.

Biden is either laughing at the GOP's stupidity in his office or pulling his hair because nothing gets done.  Can't decide how this will reflect on the GOP for their long term electoral prospect.

Surely the Democrats will get the blame?
Cultists have a habit of not being at fault.

[Admiral Yi]

Surely the Democrats will get the blame?
Cultists have a habit of not being at fault.

Disagree.  This can't be spun.  The disfunctionality of the Republican Party is playing out in real time.  Republican voters have to pick a side in the fight.

[Sheilbh]

It will.

But it'll allow Gaetz, Boebert and co to raise a butt-load of donations and keep them on Fox News.

Yes. On the other hand I think the GOP will only change if they're made to feel a political cost.

I think the mid-terms were definitely part of that and this probably is too.

[Solmyr]

[Razgovory]

Surely the Democrats will get the blame?
Cultists have a habit of not being at fault.

Disagree.  This can't be spun.  The disfunctionality of the Republican Party is playing out in real time.  Republican voters have to pick a side in the fight.

I've seen people spinning it as a "healthy discussion".  That will hold for a while, but if this takes weeks.

[Jacob]

Is there much exposure of the content of the healthy discussion? I.e. are the holdouts open about what they're holding out for or the point they're making, or is it just a "no I won't vote for that guy because I don't like him"?

[The Brain]

Forget it, Jake.

[Valmy]

Is there much exposure of the content of the healthy discussion? I.e. are the holdouts open about what they're holding out for or the point they're making, or is it just a "no I won't vote for that guy because I don't like him"?

It is very vague.

To the best of my knowledge McCarthy has caved on every single point (to the point that I don't even really know the point of him being speaker as he would be totally under the control of the most irresponsible member) but somehow that still isn't enough. But a large part of this is building celebrity brands and getting on TV and being seen as the most fabulously disruptive Republican. This behavior is going to be rewarded by the right wing media. These holdouts are going to be big national stars among the fascist sympathizers. So it is not really about opposing McCarthy specifically but showing you are against the corrupt establishment.

[grumbler]

It is very vague.

To the best of my knowledge McCarthy has caved on every single point (to the point that I don't even really know the point of him being speaker as he would be totally under the control of the most irresponsible member) but somehow that still isn't enough. But a large part of this is building celebrity brands and getting on TV and being seen as the most fabulously disruptive Republican. This behavior is going to be rewarded by the right wing media. These holdouts are going to be big national stars among the fascist sympathizers. So it is not really about opposing McCarthy specifically but showing you are against the corrupt establishment.

Yep.  It is pure 100% virtue signaling.  These are the most virulent "drain the swamp" groupies, and the swamp isn't drained until the government is bankrupt and election outcomes are no longer in the hands of the voters.

[Oexmelin]

Forget it, Jake.

It's Washingtown.

[Barrister]

Is there much exposure of the content of the healthy discussion? I.e. are the holdouts open about what they're holding out for or the point they're making, or is it just a "no I won't vote for that guy because I don't like him"?

Each of the 19 have different reasons.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/05/mccarthy-bid-00076520

Sounds like there was movement last night (mainly concessions by McCarthy), but 5 very hard no votes, and McCarthy only has room for 4 nos.

[Sheilbh]

Is there much exposure of the content of the healthy discussion? I.e. are the holdouts open about what they're holding out for or the point they're making, or is it just a "no I won't vote for that guy because I don't like him"?

From Bloomberg's Congressional reporter with a, I assume, serious Tweet

Billy House
@HouseInSession
Letting some anti-McCarthy Republicans just vote "Hell No!" is one of the pitches under way, a dressed-up way of voting "present," and thus lowering the threshold of pro-McCarthy votes need to reach a simply majority.

To the best of my knowledge McCarthy has caved on every single point (to the point that I don't even really know the point of him being speaker as he would be totally under the control of the most irresponsible member) but somehow that still isn't enough.

Practically speaking, given how narrow the House is isn't that inevitable anyway?

Surely the alternatives are that you either have someone who is incredible at party management and can unify the GOP Reps or you have someone who is very good at picking off rogue Democrats or building bipartisan coalitions. From what I've read of McCarthy - that's not his skillset (I'm not entirely sure what is). So you're at the mercy of any taxi-ful GOP reps who agree to vote together.

[Valmy]

Well before it would have taken 9 or 10 I think. McCarthy has conceded it would take just one.

From what I've read of McCarthy - that's not his skillset (I'm not entirely sure what is).

His skillset is kissing up to Trump.