2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD

[Valmy]

My butt is firmly clenched. Need to hold the Senate.

The situation locally is also pretty bizarre. A bunch of fear mongering culture war money has flooded in take over the local school district. It is all nonsense and the local school district is one of the best in the state. It is completely manufactured outrage and man is it hard to deal with. I mean I cannot prove the schools AREN'T spreading pedophilia propaganda, I mean sure the fact there is no current problem with pedophilia in the school district doesn't seem to matter. But us locals do not have the money or resources to counter this culture war surge. We will see if we hold on on election day. It's nuts.

I feel bad for the teachers, they are working so hard and have done a great job and their reward to be smeared as pedophiles by the right wing culture warriors. For no reason at all, it is just a political strategy to seize power.

It is weird because when this outside money isn't flowing in we usually win these elections pretty handily. I will see what happens. Where is all the institutional backing and Hollywood and all these elite institutions who supposedly support the left? So much for that conspiracy theory. We never get shit but the other team just gets showered with funds from outside groups. It is frustration.

I hope the Democrats manage to win 14 Congressional seats, though the usual very low turnout in the Rio Grande Valley remains an issue. All the statewide elections will be close-ish but we should lose them all.

So that is how things look around here.

[Admiral Yi]

I was concerned at first when I saw 538's projection that the GOP would pick up two Senate seats, but upon reflection I don't think it makes much difference.  Since a GOP controlled House is essentially a given, the next hurdle up from that is a Senate supermajority, capable of overriding a Biden veto.

I guess it would give them enough votes to stop confirmations. 

Are there any other advantages I'm not thinking of?

[Jacob]

I guess we should expect a massive amount of Congressional investigations into this that and the other non-GOP politicians. And, of course, the Jan 6th Committee investigations will end or be completely redirected.

[Habbaku]

I hope they look into this Antifa thing I've heard so much about.

[Berkut]

There is no hope in a world where Herschel Walker is actually running in a dead heat for a US Senate seat.

[Barrister]

I was concerned at first when I saw 538's projection that the GOP would pick up two Senate seats, but upon reflection I don't think it makes much difference.  Since a GOP controlled House is essentially a given, the next hurdle up from that is a Senate supermajority, capable of overriding a Biden veto.

I guess it would give them enough votes to stop confirmations. 

Are there any other advantages I'm not thinking of?

Confirmations and being able to bring things up for a vote.

When the GOP-controlled House inevitably impeaches Joe Biden, would a Dem-controlled Senate be forced to hold the trial?  I know the Dem-controlled Senate did back in the 90s, but could the Senate Majority leader just go "Nah..."?

[Barrister]

There is no hope in a world where Herschel Walker is actually running in a dead heat for a US Senate seat.

He's a celebrity, man.

I still say that goes a long way to explaining Trump.

[Grey Fox]

Lots of black and other minority people are going to have quite the nightmare to wake up too starting Wednesday morning.

[Valmy]

When the GOP-controlled House inevitably impeaches Joe Biden, would a Dem-controlled Senate be forced to hold the trial?  I know the Dem-controlled Senate did back in the 90s, but could the Senate Majority leader just go "Nah..."?

The Senate was very much in the hands of the Republicans in the 1990s when Clinton was impeached. They just didn't control it enough to convict.

[Josquius]

Is there evidence that the under 40s are less partisan than older people? Looking at the Yougov poll on Qanon support, there is little difference between the age groups. 32% of 65 years+ believed senior Dems were involved in child sex trafficking rings. 31% of 29-44s and 29% of both 45-64 years olds and 18-29s.

Meanwhile older people were slighly less likely to believe in a deep state conspiracy than younger people.

Older people were substantially less likely to beleieve that vaccines caused autism than younger people

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/30/which-groups-americans-believe-conspiracies

Covid is an interesting exception to the usual norm. Lots of theories for why this is the case but it basically comes down to older people having more trust in doctors- due to their upbringing? More experience with doctors in life? Less exposure all their life to antivax nonsense?
But certainly yes, it was quite bizzare to see people who are usually signed up for the anti-fact side being very pro vaccine.  I wonder if there was also a factor of how much their life was suffering due to covid /how at risk they personally were, that was to blame.

Apparently Millenials and Gen Z are unlikely to identify with either party and an increasing amount of Millenials note they are independents.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/397241/millennials-gen-clinging-independent-party.aspx

Which with the republicans embracing the extreme right I would suggest is more promising for the Democrats.
Purely anecdotally when I was in Japan I met a lot of young conservative Americans...almost universally they now vote Democract, the only exception being one who was already pretty nuts and has gone off the deep end.

[OttoVonBismarck]

FWIW I don't know without further evidence that less party identification is a sign of less polarization. There's a lot of extremists who now identify as independents, but exclusively vote for one party. I think a certain segment of the population, and more so with the young, just dislike the idea of being part of a "party." Like I know several extremer Trumpers who would sooner have their toenails pulled off than vote for a Democrat who will vigorously deny being a Republican. There's a weird dissonance for many of them where they think being a Republican means having fealty to the party, which many of them hate. A lot of them actually think elements in the party are anti-Trump or undermine the "real" conservative agenda, and don't want to be seen as associated with that.

[DGuller]

In current times, being "neutral" is a statement in itself, just like being neutral in Russia-Ukraine war.  Being in the middle is no virtue when one side is clearly an unmitigated evil, even if you take claims of neutrality at face value.

[Grey Fox]

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/11/elon-trump-resentment/672030/?utm_content=edit-promo&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_term=2022-11-07T23%3A48%3A57

Interesting article on, mostly, Trump and the resentment campaign.

I put this in this mid-term election because it's mainly a election article.

[Berkut]

In current times, being "neutral" is a statement in itself, just like being neutral in Russia-Ukraine war.  Being in the middle is no virtue when one side is clearly an unmitigated evil, even if you take claims of neutrality at face value.

I suspect as it relates to the younger generation, it isn't that they are so much "neutral" is that their faith in institutions has been so badly damaged that they don't have any particular belief that either side gives much of a shit about them at all.

My kids friends (so far as I can tell) despise the GOP, but they don't look at the Democrats as any kind of saviors either.

[OttoVonBismarck]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-08/midterm-elections-joe-biden-s-economy-is-second-only-to-one

Biden's Economy Is Second Only to One at Midterm
More than a dozen measures of relative prosperity show this administration has outperformed six of its last seven predecessors.

ByMatthew A. Winkler
November 8, 2022 at 5:12 AM EST

As Americans cast their votes near the end of Democrat Joe Biden's second year in the White House, his 42% approval rating and the outcome of such midterm elections historically favoring the party not currently in charge gives the edge to Republicans. But the history of more than a dozen measures of relative prosperity shows Biden outperformed the last six of his seven predecessors and the 46th president has no peers reducing the nation's budget deficit.

The reality is that Biden has a credible economic record in the looming showdown with Republicans threatening to cut Social Security and Medicare spending while opposing any increase in the nation's borrowing limit next year. Growth in gross domestic product, jobs created, expanding home equity levels and the strengthening dollar combined to make the Biden economy over his first two years superior to every midterm presidency since Jimmy Carter.

As if that's not enough, the almost 10 percentage-point decline in the federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP -- to 5.4% from 15.6% -- is unprecedented. Presidents Bill Clinton and Carter reduced the deficit 2.4 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, in their first two years while it expanded 1.1 percentage points under Donald Trump, 1.3 percentage points under George H.W. Bush, 1.7 percentage points under Ronald Reagan, 3.7 percentage points under Barack Obama and 4.5 percentage points under George W. Bush, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

To be sure, the sudden scourge of inflation that was sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic eroded wage gains and prompted the Federal Reserve to tighten credit the most for any eight-month period. Stocks and bonds fell into bear markets, putting a big dent into savings and retirement accounts, with the central bank signaling no end to rising interest rates. But even as the bond market sustained losses for the first time in a first-term presidency going back to 1988 when such data was first compiled, benchmark Treasury securities proved a better investment than debt from the rest of the world, where inflation accelerated at a faster rate.

Aside from the $1.4 trillion reduction in the deficit, which is the largest drop in US history, the Biden economy broke another record when non-farm payrolls increased 7.6% to 153 million, the most since such data became available in 1939. At the same time, the US enjoys an unemployment rate of just 3.7%, hovering near a 50-year low. Jobs under Carter in the second half of the 1970s rose a greater percentage, 10.2%, but total payrolls were much smaller back then at 88 million. They climbed 6.1% during Clinton's first two years, 3% under Trump, 2.1% under the first Bush and declined 3% under Obama and 1.7% under the second Bush, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Manufacturing employment under Biden climbed 6% to 12.9 million, the most since 2008 and a percentage gain exceeded only by Carter's 9.1%. Factory workers declined 3.5% and 13.2% during the Bush midterm presidencies, 10.5% under Reagan and 9.8% under Obama. They increased 3.5% for Trump and 2.7% for Clinton, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nominal GDP reached a record $26 trillion in September, rising 18.2% under Biden and beating every midterm presidency since Carter's 28.1%, when GDP was just 9.6% of today's total. Homeowners'  equity in real estate advanced 31.5% to $29 trillion, a percentage gain unsurpassed since the 40% increase to $1.5 trillion under Carter. Dollar strength underlined the Biden economy's rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic, appreciating 23.3% against major world currencies -- the most for any midterm presidency since Reagan was in the White House. The dollar depreciated for every other president in their first two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nominal GDP reached a record $26 trillion in September, rising 18.2% under Biden and beating every midterm presidency since Carter's 28.1%, when GDP was just 9.6% of today's total. Homeowners'  equity in real estate advanced 31.5% to $29 trillion, a percentage gain unsurpassed since the 40% increase to $1.5 trillion under Carter. Dollar strength underlined the Biden economy's rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic, appreciating 23.3% against major world currencies -- the most for any midterm presidency since Reagan was in the White House. The dollar depreciated for every other president in their first two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

For all of the economy's presumed flaws since he took office 22 months ago, Biden is proving to be among its ablest stewards. No major developed nation has recovered faster from the Covid-19 pandemic. With unemployment at all-time lows in 11 states and less than 3% in 17 others, Biden policies helped create almost 700,000 manufacturing jobs as companies invested in domestic industries amid the century's biggest commitment to rebuilding roads, airports, bridges and ports. Any presidency achieving this much while overseeing the record decline in the federal deficit during the quickest rebound from recession speaks for itself.

It is interesting the perception--that frankly it seems the Democrats barely even contest on the airwaves or anywhere else, is that the economy is really bad right now. When by almost every measure of economic performance and measure of prosperity, the economy has improved from the time Biden was sworn in. Not only has it improved, it has improved more than it did for 6 of Biden's 7 predecessors.

What's the deal? Well if you look to the predecessor whom Biden is 2nd to, it is an ominous warning--that predecessor is Jimmy Carter. And there are actually some comparables between the two men.

Both did some things that I think deserve credit for helping the economy. Both also were primarily benefitting from the fact the economy had previously been in the gutter and was undergoing a corrective surge during their first years in office. There are probably reasons neither man got much credit--at least psychologically I think many people don't perceive all of the positives in the economy because they are just coming off a period of extreme economic disruption. In Carter's case coming out of the Ford era recession and in Biden's coming out of the various covid economic disruptions. The facts on the ground were improving for the country both in Carter's first two years and Biden's, but the tone was not. People did not feel positive about the future of America, in either Carter or Biden's first two years.

Biden has faced a far better funded, more comprehensive, and effective propaganda campaign designed to paint the picture of his administration being a failure and the country being a hellscape. The whole "country being a hellscape" line of attack in fact is now a good 12-year project by the forces promoting it and it has become almost innately entrenched in that side of the country as directly linked to not just the election of Democrats but the existence of Democrats at all.

Interestingly Carter was to be knocked out of office two years later by Reagan, one of the first major, national level candidates in the GOP to start trotting out the idea that America was a huge shithole (but hey vote for me and we'll restore it.) You can find some elements of the genesis of that line of argument in Nixon's '68 campaign, albeit Reagan really set the tone that was carried forward.

Personality wise, defenders of either men would likely concede that tonal and personality wise Carter/Biden both suffer from not being "strong leaders." They just are not bombasts, braggarts, and neither has "swagger." At the time they were elected this was a good thing, but for both men it seems like people decided they didn't like more restrained and quiet leaders almost immediately after casting their ballots.

Inflation was high for both Presidents, as were gas prices, which tend to be very visible economic indicators that upset people.