Predicotron: What will be the ultimate result of the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Started by FunkMonk, March 08, 2022, 10:47:05 AM

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What will the end state in Ukraine be?

Russian control of additional Ukrainian territory besides DPR/LPR/Crimea
13 (35.1%)
Stalemate; status quo pre-2022 invasion
14 (37.8%)
Ukrainian victory; DPR/LPR dissolved and Crimea returned
4 (10.8%)
Other
4 (10.8%)
Russian control of all Ukraine
2 (5.4%)

Total Members Voted: 37

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mongers

#45
March 08, 2022, 07:19:58 PM
Plenty of Crimean Tartars have been forced out since 2014 and I believe many have had to flee again as many resettled in central southern Ukraine.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

crazy canuck

#46
March 08, 2022, 08:22:55 PM
Quote from: PDH on March 08, 2022, 06:43:35 PM
Quote from: The Brain on March 08, 2022, 06:38:52 PMThere was also the hacker teenager who thought he was playing a game.
Don't drag Ferris into this.

Nothing playing a game a checkers can't solve.

jimmy olsen

#47
March 08, 2022, 10:11:05 PM
Ukrainian victory; DPR/LPR dissolved, Russia keeps Crimea and gets water rights.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Eddie Teach

#48
March 08, 2022, 10:16:34 PM
Quote from: The Brain on March 08, 2022, 04:36:59 PM
Quote from: mongers on March 08, 2022, 04:30:13 PMAnd he wasn't any sort of coward, as he went on to do some shadowy SF type stuff in the 60s.

Damn hippies.

I bet he met some gentle people there.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Sheilbh

#49
March 09, 2022, 04:25:58 AM
Quote from: Barrister on March 08, 2022, 05:10:15 PMPlan B is not an option.  He can't try again in 5 years.

If it's that kind of resolution it's unlikely sanctions will be completely lifted, thus making it harder to Russia to re-arm.  Despite the US warning for weeks that Russia was going to invade they still managed some level of surprise because nobody believed they would do it.  They'll never get that again.

They West would help re-arm Ukraine like crazy.  It was only after the shooting started that many states finally agreed to ship offensive weaponry.
Yeah - that's, I think, why the Russians have said they want "de-militarisation". Even if Ukraine agrees not to join NATO (and/or the EU - unclear as this hasn't come up in what I've read which is interesting/suspicious :hmm:) and recognises Crimea/LNR/DNR, I think it's likely that the West will be spending a lot to re-arm Ukraine and make another war by Russia even more costly. So it may be a bit more of a final settlement.

QuoteFinally Putin is 69 now.  In 5 years he's 74.  He wants to finalize his legacy and knows he doesn't have a lot of time to do it.
Yeah - and a lot of the people aorund him have aged with him. Looking at that security council meeting there's strong Brezhnev vibes. It feels like everyone is probably in their late 50s to early 70s. Not sure if they have an Andropov among them who's still insisting on getting actual reports with actual facts.
Let's bomb Russia!

Duque de Bragança

#50
March 09, 2022, 09:04:44 AM
Putin put himself in a situation without any easy way out so a bit more of Ukraine, with control strengthened with LPR and DPR "independence" would not be a loss of face.
That's one more reason wy Mariupol matters now.

I still expect trouble as in partisan war in newly occupied territories.
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