Ethiopia's Descent Into Civil War and Conflict in the Horn Of Africa

[Tamas]

Afghanistan-as-was.

Not comparable.  Ethiopia's GDP doubled in the last 6 years (to 2020) with GDP per capital reaching almost double that of Afghanistan.  it's true that the country suffers from a lot of intra-regional and ethnic tensions but the current conflict was really a "war of choice" by the central government; it was avoidable and should have been avoided.

Indeed. They thought they can overrun the rebels and now face the possibility of losing their capital. USA-level debacle.

[DGuller]

  When was the US capital under threat from the rebels?

[Duque de Bragança]

Capitol ≠ Capital

[crazy canuck]

When was the US capital under threat from the rebels?

Under threat?  January of this year.

[The Minsky Moment]

USA-level debacle.

Also not *exactly* comparable.   

[Agelastus]

Afghanistan-as-was.

Not comparable.  Ethiopia's GDP doubled in the last 6 years (to 2020) with GDP per capital reaching almost double that of Afghanistan.  it's true that the country suffers from a lot of intra-regional and ethnic tensions but the current conflict was really a "war of choice" by the central government; it was avoidable and should have been avoided.

The question was "Can you come up with any country with a worse recent counter-insurgency record than Ethiopia? Other than the US, of course."

So, the western backed government of Afghanistan failed to crush the Taliban.

Before that the Taliban failed to crush the Northern Alliance.

Before that the ex-Mujahideen government of Afghanistan failed to crush the Taliban.

Before that the Communist government of Afghanistan failed to crush the Mujahideen.

Not a very proud record, particularly with 2 different superpowers backing a couple of the governments for several years before pulling out.

--------------------------

And yes, the current war in Ethiopia was a "war of choice". One I suspect was intended from the moment the current incumbent became President and that may now have blown up in his face quite spectacularly.

[Tamas]

I'd argue that the pro-western Afghan government was not an independent entity like the Ethiopian one, but a puppet state of the US.

[The Brain]

Not very fair. Belgium has waffles, beer, and pedophiles. Not necessarily in that order.

No mention of the FN ? For shame

Or "the sepulchral city".

Leave Debussy alone.

I love Debussy.

[jimmy olsen]

At some point the topic just gets discussed to death, and you can't muster up any more energy for it.

How often have we discussed Ethiopia? Almost never

[jimmy olsen]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/05/nine-ethiopian-factions-to-form-alliance-against-government

Nine anti-government factions in Ethiopia are to form an alliance, as pressure mounts on the country's prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, with rebel forces advancing toward the capital.

The alliance, called the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces, includes the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which has been fighting Abiy's government for a year in a war that has killed thousands of people and forced more than 2 million more from their homes.

Two of the groups, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the Agaw Democratic Movement (ADM), confirmed the announcement was genuine.

[Duque de Bragança]

Not very fair. Belgium has waffles, beer, and pedophiles. Not necessarily in that order.

No mention of the FN ? For shame

Or "the sepulchral city".

Leave Debussy alone.

I love Debussy.

[mongers]

The Ethiopian government is throwing entirely untrained civilians into battle; echoes of Stalin's extremism during the dark days of 41-42?

[jimmy olsen]

The Ethiopian government is throwing entirely untrained civilians into battle; echoes of Stalin's extremism during the dark days of 41-42?

Referring to this?

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1457483721473503235
https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1457487568426225670

Across the Amhara region militias continue to form to go to fight on the front lines. Pictures show hundreds of men rallying in western Gojjam before heading to the front.

It does seem like perhaps some standardization is taking place with this group in regards to rifles. Though they are obsolete and inferior to what they will go up against, it's better than the machetes which were being handed out last month. Will keep an eye out for trends.

[Tamas]

I mean, aren't these guys supposed to go against sort of guerrillas who also defeated a regular army? That's not the kind of enemy I would pick a fight with untrained.  I guess it will depend on their morale i.e. how much (and how validly) they feel they are protecting their families etc. by fighting.

[Razgovory]

We are about to see why simply giving someone a rifle doesn't make them a soldier.