[AAR] Can I get another seafood dinner for free? A Fantasy Premier League story

[clandestino]

An intro...

Last year around this time and with Covid isolation ahead I managed to convince 3 friends to play a Fantasy Premier League Draft season with a seafood dinner on the line.

It was a success for me since I ate for free and for the League since we could drum up interest and get 3 new managers this year.

Now with the extended players and the increased experience from the guys from last year I'm finding it harder to get an advantage as easily as last year, so my intention is to use this space to think about my strategies and to receive some input if someone has any to give.

For those interested we're playing the official game which can be found here: https://draft.premierleague.com

The Draft...

Before the draft I registered my team (Red Star Buraka as last year, since Estrela Vermelha da Amadora was too big a name) and got to do my homework. First of all, I didn't knew which would be my position since it would only be randomly selected at the time of the draft, only that it would be a snake like draft, with the 7th team having both 7th and 8th picks and so on. I've tried to identify which positions were of the utmost importance to fill first and the best teams to pick my guys from. The targets were Manchester United, Liverpool and West Ham since they seemed to have some decent early fixtures and/or are teams that don't rotate their lineups that often, lilke Manchester City for example.

Luckily I've got the first position in the draft which allowed me to pick the guy I think was at the time the strongest target: Mo Salah from Liverpool. The rest of the draft went fairly well, allowing me to finish with the following squad:

Goalkeepers:
Martinez AVL
Pope BUR

Defenders:
Shaw MUN
Cresswell WHU
Coufal WHU
Robertson LIV
Vestergaard LEI

Midfielders:
Salah LIV
Sancho MUN
Mahrez MCI
Greenwood MUN
Saka ARS

Forwards:
Antonio WHU
Cavani MUN
Watkins AVL

The first 3 gameweeks...

Before the fist gameweek I noticed that Vestergaard wouldn't be playing for Leicester and I've changed him in the open market for another Arsenal player, Tierney. Now, I had in previous seasons tried to avoid Arsenal players because of the team inconsistency but thought that this year would be different... Got a decent 54 points that gave me the 2nd place, with the standouts being Salah (17), Antonio (13), Greenwood (8) and Cresswell (7). Needless to say that Arsenal lost that first game against newly promoted Brentford which sealed the fate of both of my players.

In this game there is a waiver system to choose players that aren't in any squad that makes the worst placed player the first to choose. We knew beforehand that both Lukaku (CHE) and to a lesser degree Varane (MUN) would be avaliable after this first week, and the Chelsea Striker was signed by at the time bottom Brothers FC.

Before gameweek 2 both Arsenal players were released alongside the injured Watkins, bringing Reguilón from Tottenham, Sarr from Watford and Toney from Brentford. Got another decent 57 points, which although got me the 3rd place reduced the distance to the 1st (Vanillas FC at the time). This time the standouts were Antonio (16), Greenwood (10), Mahrez (6) and Reguilón (6).

Between gameweek 2 and 3 was the end of the transfer market in real life with the arrival of a few players, most noticeably Cristiano Ronaldo, which although was unavailable before the GW3 we knew would be an excellent pick for the one at the bottom after that. Regarding Red Star, this news made me release Cavani (didn't seem to have that much space at the team) for Armstrong from Southampton and releasing Mahrez for Raphinha from Leeds. If you recall, Mahrez had a good GW2 but it came from the bench and with the manager preference in rotation it was to much to me. The team got 62 points which made me 1st for the fist time with the best players being Antonio (11), Salah (10), Reguilón (9) and Shaw (6).

[clandestino]

The table...

After 3 gameweeks this was the table:

Red Star 173
Vanillas FC 156
Swiss Aspirines 143
The Blondes 140
Pharmas United 128
Brothers FC 128
Salty Tears 116

This are not the real names of the teams (except from mine), but is an easy way to remember them after a brief introduction.

The teams and players...

Red Star - yours truly
Vanillas - newcomer, got the first few weeks right and now believes he's good at it. Star: Bruno Fernandes
Swiss Aspirines - 4th place last year, lives in Switzerland so we don't mind that he pays the most (I believe he doesn't either...). Star: Kane
The Blondes - 2nd place last year. Star: Grealish and Havertz
Pharmas United - 3rd place last season. Stars: Son and Rashford
Brothers FC: newcomer, brother of Blondes. Stars: Mané and Lukaku
Salty Tears: newcomer, whines a lot. Stars: Ronaldo and Aubameyang

Before gameweek 4...

With the national teams break we had a few more time to look at our teams and although I'm happy with the team I've got, it seems that there's a lack of depth at the Forwards position. Antonio has been great, but he's from a midtable team and I'm not sure he can keep with the current form for long. Toney is a target man in a newly promoted team and Armstrong a new signing in a team that probably will be fighting relegation, both were playing in the Championship last season. Unfortunately the picks available at the moment aren't that great, maybe the best is Dennis from Watford (also newly promoted). That made me try to charm a couple of players I've identified as the ones with deeper choice in that position (Swiss Aspirines and The Blondes) for a transaction but got turn down coldly.

Another problem was having two defenders from West Ham since the good fixtures are ending and the defense didn't seem that great. On the other hand, Wolves seem great this season and although they lost all their games so far, they were though fixtures with Leicester and Man Utd Away and Tottenham at Home (that is run by Wolves previous manager). Their next 10 or 11 fixtures seem great and I went for them, so Coufal and Sarr were released for Saiss and Traoré.

Team for the gameweek 4:

[clandestino]

A few considerations before this gameweek:

1. Is it worth to play with another defender over one forward?
2. Is Sancho worth it? Can I try to exchange him with a fellow player? What kind of target can I have? How will Man Utd play with Ronaldo back?
3. If pivoting a few players to Chelsea and Leeds because of fixtures who should I release?

[clandestino]

Gameweek 4 results and analysis...



Worst week so far... but managed to keep the first place, winning a few points in relation to 3 other players and losing some to another 3.

Unsurprisingly the players that managed to score well this week were the ones that were at the bottom of the league when Lukaku and Ronaldo became avaliable.



About the team, the big disappointments were Spurs (Reguilón) and Antonio being sent off. The rest more or less worked as expected, with the players from Man Utd and Liverpool being the top performers, since both Saiss and Cresswell were in the bench and didn't contribute in the end, which leads to my previous considerations:

1. Is it worth to play with another defender over one forward?
2. Is Sancho worth it? Can I try to exchange him with a fellow player? What kind of target can I have? How will Man Utd play with Ronaldo back?
3. If pivoting a few players to Chelsea and Leeds because of fixtures who should I release?

1. With insight this seems clear, the best option would've been to play a 4-5-1. This seems to be the path forward although now we have a few more options in the market at the front: both Werner and Firmino were released by the opposition and even if they aren't an option to play at the moment because of manager options and injury could be an opportunity to snatch one and keep in the bench waiting for better times (Firmino seems the better option of the 2). Apart from those two, a couple of forwards rose to the occasion this week, namely Edouard (CRY) with 2 goals scored in only 12 minutes playing and Hwang (WOL) with 1 in 27. Edouard seems to be the better option of the two, since CRY is a work in progress at the moment and a new player will not disrupt the team that much and I believe it will be easy for him to play since both Benteke and Ayew have been disappointing IMO. On the other hand, it's Crystal Palace, a work in progress and they will be playing Liverpool away next gameweek... Hwang on the other hand is at a more established squad that keeps having trouble scoring. As a Wolves fan I've got to see their last games and it's not clear if Lage will keep with the attacking trident of Trincão-Jimenez-Traoré, since both Hwang and Podence were important in the 2nd half against Watford. The next fixtures keep on being great: BRE(h), SOU(a) and NEW(h).

2. So far it seems he's not that great, but his potential is to good to just release him. Another problem is the beginning of the European competitions and the need to rotate the players at the front. Against Young Boys, Greenwood was at the bench and Sancho was substituted at 36' as the sacrifice after Wan-Bissaka was sent off, which seems a good indicator that both will play against WHU. I guess I'll probe the competition to see if there's any interest...

3. Chelsea is a non question, since there aren't any decent players available and their good games only start at GW7. Leeds on the other hand seem a more interesting proposition with NEW(a), WHU(h) and WAT(h). The only players picked are Raphinha (mine), Meslier and Dallas (Swiss Aspirines) and Bamford (the Blondes). Since their results so far were terrible that might enable a transaction, the other prospects being Harrison as MID or Ayling/Firpo as DEF. The weakest links in these poistions seem Sancho and Traoré as MID and Reguilón as DEF, but since Leeds usually aren't that great at the back maybe it's not a great solution.

Waivers deadline will be tomorrow, so let's see how well we play the market this time.

[clandestino]

Team, Market and Bias Analysis

As the transactions between players seem like a dwindling possibility perhaps it's time to analyze my transfers with the market availability. It's better to start with the end, trying to find any bias that might be hurting my analysis:

TEAM		FPL Pts		PLAYERS		EURO
LIV		267		2		Y
CHE		260		0		Y
MCI		259		0		Y
MUN		220		3		Y
EVE		206		0		N
WHU		203		2		Y
TOT		197		1		Y
CRY		186		0		N
BHA		185		0		N
BRE		180		1		N
LEI		153		0		Y
AVL		148		1		N
WOL		137		2		N
SOU		133		1		N
BUR		113		1		N
NEW		112		0		N
ARS		104		0		N
LEE		103		1		N
WAT		99		0		N
NOR		84		0		N

First of all, it seems that the FPL points ranking is fairly similar to the league table with a few notable exceptions: CRY and BRE slightly better than real, with BHA and LEI slightly worst. The fact that I don't field players from CHE and MCI is mainly related to their managers tendency to rotate the squad and my opponents rating them higher than me. The true stalwarts of these teams (Lukaku, Dias, etc) are taken. So this seems fine. One team that I *might* be overlooking is Everton. The only decent players still available are Townsend in MID and Coleman in DEF. I might have a negative bias against CRY as well, but it seems easier to fix this, not this week though since they'll be playing against Liverpool. Wolves are overrepresented but it's the team that I follow and their fixtures seem nice and maybe I should thread carefully on Leeds at the moment.

Bench: I'll start here since that might influence my decisions elsewhere. Antonio is suspended for one game but he's my only decent forward and the options are few as discussed previously. So, that's one place. WHU will be playing Man United so Cresswell seams like a poor option in terms of clean sheet or assist points, but I still like WHU and this player so I'll bench him as a last option, so I need another viable player to fill the 1st bench spot, someone that I would be happy to field in the starting 11. With this in mind, Firmino will not be a transfer target this week.

Forwards: IMO here lies the main problem of the team. Another week of Toney (12 points total) and Armstrong (15), another week of poor results. Even reducing the presence of the forwards in the team, I still have to play at least one and the good option is suspended as mentioned. Currently these are the options available at the market:



The question is, from these poor options which would I be happier to have rather than them? Regarding fixtures, Armstrong will be playing MCI(A), WOL(H) and CHE(A) and Toney WOL(A), LIV(H) and WHU(A) so pretty terrible ones which increase the options that I can consider. Edouard and Hwang as mentioned before look like good *speculative* options and I guess I can't have both because of that, so against my better judgement I'll be targeting Saint-Maximin and Pukki as well, since I'm garanteed they'll be playing for sure. The conclusion then seems to be to release Armstrong and Toney and signing one of the pair Saint-Maximin/Pukki and one from the pair Edouard/Hwang. Just need to think about which ones to target first and hope my opponents don't go for my targets before I do.

Defenders: With Cresswell in the bench, the rest is Robertson, Shaw, Saiss and Reguilón. I'm perfectly happy playing the first 3, but I guess Reguilón will be released since they will be playing Chelsea, with their defense completely obliterated (Dier and Sánchez injured and Tanganga suspended). Currently these are the players in my watchlist:



From these my main targets will be Marçal or Maguire (I just need to answer if I'm comfortable with having possibly 4 Wolverhampton players as Marçal seems a better option, but Maguire is not that far behind). Livramento has terrible fixtures and Stones and Chilwell are players that aren't playing at the momento but might start soon and would be good speculative options if I could afford the space. The other 4 are second tier options, maybe in the order Dunk, Ayling, Firpo and Castagne.

Midfielders: I'm happy with my current selection, especially since Greenwood didn't play midweek and Sancho was subbed at around the 30 minutes mark, so they should be in ManU starting eleven. I'm not completely confident in the pair going forward, but they will stay for another gameweek at least. Salah is my best player and despite playing midweek I can't see Klopp subbing him against CRY with Firmino injured. Traoré and Raphinha are good attacking options playing against weak opposition. I believe there's similar potencial in the market, but no one clearly superior at the moment. Here's the current watchlist:



Gallagher seems the most consistent but his fixture is awful, Townsend as a way to expose my team to Everton players (might be needed), Sarr and Harrison with good fixtures, Ziyech excellent player in a rotating squad and Maddison a good player from a good squad in terrible form. I don't think I'll be exchanging players here.

Goalkeepers: Not much to do here this week, decent keepers both playing at home, hope to play Martinez at home vs Everton although he's doubtful, if not Pope will play with Burnley at Home vs Arsenal which seems decent as well. One note, initially the goalkeepers were chosen with the idea of having similar quality ones, one playing at home, the other away, but they are synchronized already. This week this is not a problem, but I'm thinking about releasing one (probably Pope) in exchange for one of Guaita CRY, Ramsdale ARS or Bachmann WAT or someone that might be available next week. 

[clandestino]

Team for GW5...



Regarding the waivers resolution, managed to get my 1st options in both Forwards (Edouard over Hwang and Saint-Maximin over Pukki), but only my 3rd option in defense with Coleman, opening up my team to an Everton player.

As mentioned I'll go for a more defense and midfield focus this week with a 4-5-1. The bench has the players with the tougher matchups.

Surprisingly The Blondes' manager tried to release Havertz, trying to bring Kovacic which failed since he was already chosen. This is probably the person that I was closer to opening some negotiations and he was aware of my interest in the player. When questioned about it, he showed some interest in negotiating the player, asking for Greenwood in return. As a counter proposal I offered Sancho which he rejected. I was thinking about exchanging Greenwood for Havertz in the heat of the moment, when noticed that it would be too late for this gameweek so this will remain a point to think about for the next one.

Havertz would open my team to Chelsea which I currently don't have a player, while reducing the weight of Man Utd. Both are rotating risks for different reasons. I believe that Havertz is the best option playing behind Lukaku and will play most games, but Tuchel is known for his rotation preferences and he has some strong players for a couple of positions (Havertz, Mount, Ziyech, Pulisic... even Werner). Greenwood is having a fantastic start of the season and he has secured one of the 2 places around Ronaldo. There is also competition for these places and although weaker (Sancho, Pogba when Fred/McTominay come back, Rashford when back from injury, Lingard) I feel that OGS doesn't trust Greenwood that much and maybe hopes for a couple of bad performances to have an excuse to start him from the bench. Maybe I'm being cynical here, but it's something to check this week, along with how will the teams selection change after the Champions League games. Both are a strong option to play when the managers decide to rest their star strikers.

Regarding fixtures, Chelsea will play MCI at home next gameweek, but after that has a sequence of 5 games among the theoretical easier ones: SOU(H), BRE(A), NOR(H), NEW(A) and BUR(H) and I'm hoping to get a return from someone from Chelsea for those gameweeks, Havertz being arguably the best option (other available at the moment being Thiago Silva and Chilwell in defense if Tuchel benches Alonso, and maybe Ziyech and Hudson-Odoi in midfield). Manchester United fixtures don't seem that great during those same 5 gameweeks with EVE(H), LEI(A), LIV(H), TOT(A) and MCI(H) while hosting AVL next week.

In conclusion, I'm finding it difficult not to pursuit the exchange if available next week. There's also the option of trying to delay it to the week after that, but that seems too greedy and would probably backfire. Might consider if there's the need to bench any of the team stars because of a short injury or suspension (like Antonio this week).