Democrats can be Trumpists too?

[crazy canuck]

If you can point me to a point in time when a US administration declared Canada a security risk (Trump's justification for granting himself authority to impose the aluminum tariff) or a US Governor purporting to order the closure of in international pipeline - I am all ears.  I think shrugging this off as normal is also part of the problem.  It is a new low imo.

I'm not disputing that Trump is Trumpist.

But a state level politician campaigning and being elected on an issue of local concern and trying to force the issue doesn't strike me as particularly Trumpists. I mean, Burnaby City Hall tried to stop a pipeline running through Burnaby. I don't think they're Trumpists. Local governments stretching beyond their authority and encroaching on Federal authority (or Provincial/ State authority to go one level down) is not particularly exceptional when it comes to environmental issues.

There was no chance Burnaby had any jurisdiction.  Their lawyers must have told them that but they proceeded with spending municipal money on a legal challenge that had no shot (and lost at every level of court).  The difference is the Federal government intervened in the proceedings and took the position the municipal government had no role.

You can see some local politicians who are not very sophisticated doin such a thing.  But when it happens at the equivalent of a Provincial/State or Federal level, you begin to wonder what is going on.

[Eddie Teach]

So that is it then - if this isn't resolved in the right way, the alternative is war.

An interesting take.

Your move, Canada. 

[The Larch]

Governor Whitmer has given her order. Let's see what happens next.

Ok, at least now I know this is about Michigan. 

[Grey Fox]

Source?

You really don't know what I am talking about?

If you really don't know and you really can't find a newspaper article let me know.  But I hope you are really not that ill informed.

I do not think this made anyone's radar in the USA. I don't know why or how it would reach the mainstream consciousness.

[Razgovory]

Well, I read the treaty and found a news story about it.  The governor of Michigan is closing a section of pipeline out of a fear of another oil spill and climate change.  The Treaty may allow this, I don't know.

In the event of an actual or threatened natural disaster, an operating emergency, or other demonstrable need temporarily to reduce or stop for safety or technical reasons the normal operation of a Transit Pipeline, the flow of hydrocarbons through such Transit Pipeline may be temporarily reduced or stopped in the interest of sound pipeline management and operational efficiency by or with the approval of the appropriate regulatory authorities of the Party in whose territory such disaster, emergency or other demonstrable need occurs.

It sounds like something that should be argued in a court.  Can Canada sue the state of Michigan?  If so, that should be the best route.

[Jacob]

There was no chance Burnaby had any jurisdiction.  Their lawyers must have told them that but they proceeded with spending municipal money on a legal challenge that had no shot (and lost at every level of court).  The difference is the Federal government intervened in the proceedings and took the position the municipal government had no role.

You can see some local politicians who are not very sophisticated doin such a thing.  But when it happens at the equivalent of a Provincial/State or Federal level, you begin to wonder what is going on.

My expectation is that there'll be conversations on the Federal level between the two countries. Maybe there'll be some interruptions followed by lawsuits and/ or arbitration, or there will be no stoppage followed by lawsuits and/ or arbitration. Neither Canada nor the US are interested in a trade dispute at this point, I don't think, which is where this will lead if Whitmer manages to actually shut the pipeline down for any length of time. I also don't think the US federal government is particularly keen on letting State level politicians enroach on Federal responsibilities like trade agreements and treaties.

So I my expectation is that Whitmer makes some strong statements and maybe there's a bit of an inconvenicence for a few days or weeks at most (with a cost, of course), but that's about it. I could be wrong. But bottom line is that I don't think there's anything particularly Trumpist about local politicians attempting to exceed their remit into foreign affairs for local reasons. Whether it's Trumpist or not (and which larger pattern this may be part of) depends on how everything proceeds after that moment.

[Berkut]

Governor Whitmer has given her order. Let's see what happens next.

Ok, at least now I know this is about Michigan. 

What, you don't know the details of this? Don't worry, CC will summarize for you in a completely impartial manner...

[Berkut]

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/business/energy-and-mining/7023162-Enbridge-to-keep-Great-Lakes-pipeline-running-defy-looming-Michigan-shutdown-order

AN actual article about the dispute.

It is going to arbitration. As these things do. As is, in fact, written into the treaty itself.

Much ado about very little.

[The Minsky Moment]

The treaty states the pipelines are subject to reasonable regulation by governmental authorities having jurisdiction. There is also a provision for a temporary suspension of all operations in the event of "demonstrable need temporarily to reduce or stop for safety or technical reasons the normal operation of a Transit Pipeline"  None of those key terms - "temporary" or "demonstrable need"  - are defined, creating some ambiguity.

This looks like a garden variety legal dispute over interpretation of a statute. The Canadian company has the right to go to federal court to get injunctive relief - including emergency injunctive relief if needed.  Looks like they would have a decent case.

[Berkut]

To be clear, I think Whitmer is a dumbass, and this is basically political posturing.

But the idea that there isn't actual concerns here, which one would be led to believe by CC's "summary" of the issue, is spurious. There are concerns. The pipeline is old, and they need to do work to make it safe, and the timing of that work (and cost) is going to be contested in a rather fraught political climate when it comes to environmental issues around carbon fuels.

It is not nearly as simple as the US just being assholes and screwing over poor, poor Canada because they are ogres. As usual.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/02/canada-enbridge-line-5-whitmer-michigan/

[Berkut]

The treaty states the pipelines are subject to reasonable regulation by governmental authorities having jurisdiction. There is also a provision for a temporary suspension of all operations in the event of "demonstrable need temporarily to reduce or stop for safety or technical reasons the normal operation of a Transit Pipeline"  None of those key terms - "temporary" or "demonstrable need"  - are defined, creating some ambiguity.

This looks like a garden variety legal dispute over interpretation of a statute. The Canadian company has the right to go to federal court to get injunctive relief - including emergency injunctive relief if needed.  Looks like they would have a decent case.

Indeed. This isn't Japan bombing Pearl Harbor.

[The Minsky Moment]

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/business/energy-and-mining/7023162-Enbridge-to-keep-Great-Lakes-pipeline-running-defy-looming-Michigan-shutdown-order

AN actual article about the dispute.

It is going to arbitration. As these things do. As is, in fact, written into the treaty itself.

Yep - article IX

However, if the Canadian company can show irreparable harm from Whitmer's order and a substantial likelihood of success on the merits, they may also be able to get a federal court TRO pending arbitration.

[alfred russel]

Crazy Canuck is really fucking stupid. I mean it would be nice if the US lived up to its treaty obligations, but if we did this country would still belong to Native Americans.

[Grey Fox]

Naive is the better word.

Imo, there's a reckoning happening in the RoC right now. They are slowly but surely learning that the Americans do not consider them, well at all.

[Jacob]

Naive is the better word.

Imo, there's a reckoning happening in the RoC right now. They are slowly but surely learning that the Americans do not consider them, well at all.

Sounds like you agree with CC's overall analysis then, even if your reaction differs.

I'm not sure though... there's always been bullshit when it comes to US-Canada relations and trade. Trump was obviously going low places, but I'm not sure there's a sea change with Biden compared to the pre-Trump era.