German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

[Sheilbh]

All the Greens I know are generally reasonable, not fanatics.  I think they interpret evidence with bias, but not to the point of the anti-Greens and their denial that climate change is even happening.

Yeah - that would put the craziness into perspective

Denying climate change is not a thing in the major parties in the UK - in fact Johnson's announced a new UK target to cut emissions by 78% by 2035, which is, I think, what Labour proposed at the last election.

[Zanza]

There is no climate change denial per se, but the Conservatives and the Greens have a very different view on urgency of action and acceptable impact on economic interests.

Laschet comes from the region with huge lignite open pit mines and has always supported this most dirty of all energy sources. Quite a big difference in case they try to rule together...

[The Brain]

Do the Greens still think that coal is better than nuclear?

[Duque de Bragança]

Do the Greens still think that coal is better than nuclear?

In practical terms yes, officially no.

[Zanza]

So far, the trend towards the Greens as the biggest party holds.

The conservatives have a rather uninspiring candidate who seems busy trying to convince his party that he is the right choice, mainly by trying to embrace the right. The conservatives are fighting a two front war: In the East they are losing voters to the AfD and nominate hard right candidates. In the West and in cities, they are losing voters to the Greens and Liberals. And you know how it goes when Germans fight a two front war... 

The Greens on the other hand now have a popular candidate and are able to keep their party calm. They reacted within a day when a well-known provocateur from their party used the n-word on Facebook and fired him. The recent Constitutional Court decision on climate change also helped them.

The Social Democrats seem to be the boring, moderate choice this year, but cannot inspire beyond their now small core constituency. The Liberals are gaining, probably an effect of the lockdown measures. The neonazis are infighting between their more extreme Ning and the more moderate wing. Looks like the extreme wing will win, which will move the party towards a full-blown hard nationalist course.

Let's see if Covid "being over" in summer might change these trends.

[Syt]

They straight up color the AfD brown now instead of their (self-chosen) blue? Not that I disagree, but wow.

[Zanza]

Hehe, no. That's just someone recoloring the official pictures. You can still see some blue in the top left.

[Syt]

Ah, fair enough.

[Zanza]

Here is the original: https://mobile.twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1391143115831058433

[The Larch]

Are any possible coalitions being discussed? If the Greens end up as the most voted party, who woud their coalition partners be?

I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.

[Syt]

Are any possible coalitions being discussed? If the Greens end up as the most voted party, who woud their coalition partners be?

I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.

John Milius tried to warn us.

[Zanza]

Lots of more or less likely options, in order of my perceived likelihood:

Green/Black or Black/Green "Kiwi" -- only realistic two-party coalition (although the conservatives are actually two separate parties), but grassroots in both parties against it, the leadership might like it for stability

Green/Red/Yellow "Traffic Light" -- lots of overlap on issues e.g human rights, not so much on economy and ecology, but would probably work

Green/Red/Red -- lots of similarities domestically, less on foreign policy. The Green co-lead said that the Left Party needs to commit for NATO as a prerequisite. 

Black/Green/Yellow "Jamaica" --They tried that in 2017 and it bombed when the Liberals quit. I doubt they will try again.

Black/Green/Red "Kenya" or Black/Red/Yellow - only if nothing else goes

Black/Yellow/Blue "Bahamas" -- was tried in Thuringia two years ago, but immediately collapsed as too many conservatives and Liberals still balk at joining the fascists. But a potential outcome in Saxony-Anhalt next month...

[Sheilbh]

I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.

The German Greens are not like other Greens though - especially on foreign policy

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I must say that the possibility of the Greens winning a national election in Germany was not something I expected to see.

The German Greens are not like other Greens though - especially on foreign policy

not a chance we should take

[Zanza]

Last time we had a Green foreign minister, we participated in NATO operations in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Baerbock is outspoken against e.g. Nordstream 2 and openly  supports Taiwan.

The conservative candidate has tweets that suggest he supported Assad, he is friendly on Russia, his party just faces a corruption affair with Azerbaijan of all countries.

Both are strong European federalists, so hardly your views in that area.