German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

[Sheilbh]

If the FDP makes it, which looks likely, the "Kenya" coalition of CDU/SPD and Greens is too small to continue. Maybe add the FDP to get a "Zimbabwe" coalition... 

But there is open talk in CDU to be a minority government "tolerated" by the AfD. That would be a big move...

Would it be backed by any formal agreement or just operating tacitly?

[celedhring]

Funnily none of our lunatics openly defends exiting the EU, except the superfringe left. I guess they all know which side our bread is buttered 

No-one does

I think Brexit showed it's difficult and, on the right, Hungary and Poland show you don't need to leave to pass that agenda (with EU funding largely intact). See the difference between Salvini who plays up old-school Euroscepticism, especially about the Euro, and Meloni, who doesn't. Most seem to focus on, at most, leaving the Euro.

Leaving the Euro is a particulary Italian thing, the common currency has never been popular there and calls for abandoning have existed almost since the very beginning.

Regarding our lunatics, Vox does from time to time go on an anti-EU rant, most probably mixing it up with anti-globalism, but leaving it has never been part of their program, AFAIK.

CUP do want to leave the EU. They're probably the only ones in the separatist camp that are honest about the whole thing, the fact that an independent Catalonia would leave the EU by default and they're pretty fine with it. The rest insist that Catalonia would remain in the EU because we're too economically important (that frame of mind rings a bell  )

[Zanza]

@Sheilbh: Does not really matter as it would be an earthquake in the CDU. Their previous leader fell over similar shenanigans in Thuringia, where CDU and AfD briefly supported a FDP prime minister.

I guess if the Eastern CDU regional parties join forces with the AfD, it would cost them dearly in the West and would damage their party leader and chancellor candidate beyond repair.

[Sheilbh]

This is fascinating:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/26/german-voters-view-of-personal-wealth-causes-problems-for-the-left

Be really interesting to see comparative studies with attitudes in other countries.

[Maladict]

If the FDP makes it, which looks likely, the "Kenya" coalition of CDU/SPD and Greens is too small to continue. Maybe add the FDP to get a "Zimbabwe" coalition... 

But there is open talk in CDU to be a minority government "tolerated" by the AfD. That would be a big move...

Oh right, I forgot about the threshold.

[The Larch]

Funnily none of our lunatics openly defends exiting the EU, except the superfringe left. I guess they all know which side our bread is buttered 

No-one does

I think Brexit showed it's difficult and, on the right, Hungary and Poland show you don't need to leave to pass that agenda (with EU funding largely intact). See the difference between Salvini who plays up old-school Euroscepticism, especially about the Euro, and Meloni, who doesn't. Most seem to focus on, at most, leaving the Euro.

Leaving the Euro is a particulary Italian thing, the common currency has never been popular there and calls for abandoning have existed almost since the very beginning.

Regarding our lunatics, Vox does from time to time go on an anti-EU rant, most probably mixing it up with anti-globalism, but leaving it has never been part of their program, AFAIK.

CUP do want to leave the EU. They're probably the only ones in the separatist camp that are honest about the whole thing, the fact that an independent Catalonia would leave the EU by default and they're pretty fine with it. The rest insist that Catalonia would remain in the EU because we're too economically important (that frame of mind rings a bell  )

I'll blame it on not being regularly exposed to CUP and their very particular brand of lunacy. 

[Zanza]

Germany is okay when it comes to income distribution after state redistribution, poor when it comes to income distribution without redistribution and outright terrible when it comes to wealth distribution. We are among the worst countries in the world there, ranking with the likes of Saudi Arabia.

But yes, the perception is probably different, maybe based on the first. German billionaires seem to be more discrete than their foreign equivalents. There is also a lot of "old money" around.

It becomes a major and visible problem now as only those young people are realistically able to afford buying a house/flat that get money from their parents, be it gifts or inheritance. 

[Zanza]

In practice,however, wealth—and therefore capital income—in Germany is extremely concentrated. On average, Germans are richer than almost anyone else in Europe. The average German is about 50 percent richer than the average Italian and twice as wealthy as the average Spaniard. The distribution of wealth is so unequal in Germany, however, that the median German household is far poorer than the median Spanish household and only about as wealthy as the median Greek or Polish household. According to a comprehensive survey by the European Central Bank, Germans on lower incomes have less net wealth, in absolute terms, than low-income Estonians and Hungarians. Many Germans either have no assets at all or owe debts greater than the assets they do own.

The skewed distribution of wealth is exacerbated by the types of assets held by the richest Germans. Only 10 percent of German households directly own shares in listed companies, and only 13 percent own mutual funds. (There is likely significant overlap in those two groups.) Most important, 90 percent of all businesses in Germany—accounting for more than half of all corporate cash flow—are family-owned businesses held by just 10 percent of German households. These businesses are passed from generation to generation because they are mostly exempt from inheritance tax as long as jobs are preserved for seven years after the handover.

The perverse result is that the effective tax rate on German inheritances of more than €10 million is about 1 percent, while the effective tax rate for inheritances of €100,000 to €200,000 is roughly 14 percent. A legal change in 2016 modestly tweaked the exemptions, but the basic inequity remains.

Aus: Klein and Pettis, Trade Wars Are Class Wars, pp. 155-156, Yale University Press 2020.

Unlike many other countries, Germany's property taxes are not based on market values. Instead, they are based on assessments dating back to either 1964 (in the former West Germany) or 1935 (in the former East Germany). The result is that German property tax payments are far lower than in other countries, such as the United States.
This is regressive, because only 44 percent of German households own their main
residence. That is one of the lowest shares in the rich world. Moreover, German homeowners are far richer than the majority of Germans who rent. According to the Bundesbank, the median homeowner with a mortgage has more than fourteen times as much net wealth as the median renter. Most German homeowners do so without a mortgage, however. The median net wealth of these households is more than twenty-six times as high as that of the median renter. Part of the explanation is that a third of all German homeowners own multiple residential properties that they rent out to others. Homeowners are also far more likely to own one of Germany's many family
businesses. A recent study found that, unlike in other countries, rising rents in Germany systematically transfer income from people on low incomes to people with high incomes.

[Syt]

Someone's been reading the same Reddit thread as me.

Wikipedia has a comparison of Median and Mean Adult Wealth in Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth_in_Europe

[Zanza]

Was a coincidence that I saw that after sheilbh had posted the other study here, but it definitely fits.

[The Brain]

The perverse result is that the effective tax rate on German inheritances of more than €10 million is about 1 percent, while the effective tax rate for inheritances of €100,000 to €200,000 is roughly 14 percent.

In Sweden inheritance tax is 0%.

[Sheilbh]

Someone's been reading the same Reddit thread as me.

Wikipedia has a comparison of Median and Mean Adult Wealth in Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth_in_Europe

Interesting and surprising. I assume there's probably some link to home ownership rates?

[Admiral Yi]

I've read before about the very low German participation in the stock market.  It puzzles me.  I can understand the link between Weimar hyperinflation and fear of inflation, but I don't see the link to fear of stocks.

I understand Japan is in a similar boat, so maybe there's some kind of "lose a World War" phenomenon. 

Any thoughts or insights?

[Syt]

Germans are very conservative when it comes to saving money. Also, people can save less than they used to. With many people renting instead of owning, and rents generally going up faster than wages ... domestic demand has been low for years now, and fewer and fewer people can afford to put money on the side to finance a property. In the 70s or 80s it wasn't unusual that a working class family with a single earner could aspire to build a house (with support from the bank, often) and pay it off till they retire. That is a tall prospect even for many middle class households these days. The most common form of wealth generation is inheritance.

[Zanza]

So Saxony-Anhalt voted now and the Conservatives got a very good result on low turnout. Looks like the polarization and focus on whether the AfD could become the biggest party helped them. The current governor is also rather popular. 

Poor result for SPD, Left and Greens. Good result for FDP (Liberals), which matches their overall trend.

This helps Laschet (guy with hat) in the race to the chancellorship and damages Baerbock.