Property prices thread

[Tamas]

Right, when to buy a home? We are looking in what is essentially the massive commuter belt outside of London's own mass transit system. The pandemic caused a noticeable upward push on prices on properties around here, but it seems to have stalled most recently.

Big question is what will happen when things reopen. Are all the pent-up demand gone? Most of it is still waiting to be unleashed post-lockdown?

What I think/hope is a big factor is that second/third/fifth properties are the investment option of choice for the English middle class (who they then blame the immigrants for daring to come in and rent them, and rich foreigners for driving the prices up). If inflation will actually start this year, interest rates might actually go up and then the buy-to-let deals will become less lucrative as the rents peasants like me can afford won't be enough to cover the mortgage payments with a profit.

Is that a realistic thing to hold out for? It feels like big changes can happen, but it's hard to see if those will result in a reducing even crash of prices, or they will fix the upward trend for another decade.

[Maladict]

House prices have continued going up here despite Covid, with March 2021 as the highest monthly increase in twenty years.
Maybe something else is causing the stall?

[Valmy]

It seems home prices in Central Texas remain defiant of anything that might slow their ever upward climb to infinity. Which is awesome for everybody since Texas has super high property taxes. I don't know who all these sick bastards are who moved here during COVID but it seems nothing will stop the red hot growth in this part of the country. We even have pretty significant COVID restrictions, I don't get it.

If I lived in California, with my income, I would actually pay less total tax. I hope all those conservatives fleeing California for the Texas tax haven made sure to check their property values first 

It always seems to work out that way for me. When Donald Trump did his big "tax cut" I ended up paying more tax. I live in the state that famously doesn't have big taxes but I pay more than equivalent me in California. It is almost like the Middle Class gets screwed or something 

[Sheilbh]

Anecdotally there were a lot of people in London buying because of the stamp duty cut (or moving out and buying somewhere new/bigger). I've also heard reports of a big surge in people looking for family homes - probably inevitable after couple have been trapped in a one bedroom flat together for 12 months that they either split up or move somewhere bigger

There's been reports in the press on the decline in interest for certain London areas and a spike for country areas - which probably affects you quite a lot. But the decline in London has only impacted prices in a few boroughs (Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster from what I've seen), which makes sense because the people who live there can afford to move to a very comfortable version of the countryside and are senior enough to get away with permanently working from Porthleven

I am aiming to have enough for a deposit on a flat in my area over the next 12-18 months (hopefully while the 95% LTV mortgages are available because otherwise ) and I don't think there's any point in holding out for inflation or an interest rate rise (for a start given covid, given Brexit the inflation would have to be really bad for the BofE to start raisisng rates, no?). I just don't think it's very likely.

Separately:

The Telegraph
@Telegraph
Replying to
@Telegraph
There's been a surge in demand for village properties in rural locations with extra bedrooms and outdoor space.

We take a look at villages you can move to near London with £500,000


https://telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/le

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1379012450922733571

I saw that thread - and especially that map - and after searching for local Communist militias I can join, felt that you and I are both a bit fucked

[Jacob]

In Canada traditionally the "property prices just keep rising" phenomenon was confined primarily to Vancouver and Toronto. Now, apparently, it's a nationwide phenomenon.

Whether that means a correction is coming, I can't say. But it seems the "property prices just keep going up" thing is pretty widespread.

[PDH]

A lot of the "Bay Area Flight" has actually been people moving from The City (San Francisco) to other parts of the Greater Bay Area.  Sadly, that includes Santa Cruz which was already in a huge upward spiral of prices.  People are buying houses unseen, in one case in Berkeley a house sold for a million more than offered because of bidding wars.

My cardboard shack under the interstate is looking sweeter by the day.

[Valmy]

My cardboard shack under the interstate is looking sweeter by the day.

It will cost $500,000 after the bidding war.

[Grey Fox]

It has come apparent that I could sell my house for 450-500k$

That's a serious increase from 2 year ago & more than double from 10 years ago.

[Josquius]

Generally waiting for house prices to drop is a losing game.
Maybe prices will go down one or two percent in the next year... but that'll save you less than what you've spent on rent over that year.

But generally yes, city centre flats are due for a sharp decline whilst balanced places, leafy but with decent rail access to the bright lights, are going to rise in popularity. Which is a shame as that's what I've been envisioning as my goal since before corona.
Read a piece earlier about big interest in Eyemouth due to the new train station being built there- I am very tempted. Well. If I hadn't just moved and all those other factors.

[Tamas]

I saw that thread - and especially that map - and after searching for local Communist militias I can join, felt that you and I are both a bit fucked

It's ridiculous.

[Grey Fox]

Berry is selling her flat, iirc.

[Valmy]

Generally waiting for house prices to drop is a losing game.

The last time we had a big realestate crash in central Texas was the mid 80s after Reagan doomed us all with his tax plan.

Since then there is no point where waiting would have benefited you at all. It has always gone up COVID or 2008 economic crisis be damned. I am sure in most other growth areas it is similar. The only thing that waiting could benefit you on is loan terms unless you are some millionaire who pays cash. But you can just refinance for that.

[Valmy]

So just how big are these £500,000 castles you can buy near London? Do they have their own drawbridges and moats?

[Tamas]

Berry is selling her flat, iirc.

Yeah thanks but that's not the right area for us and is a flat.

I have long resigned from my ambition from a detached or even semi-detached property, but I am holding out still for a reasonably located sideways flat aka terraced house. Sideways soundproofing can be pretty effective, and there'd be a tiny garden.

There are acceptable 3 bedroom ones in the decent but inconvenient without a car areas where we are looking from £375,000 upwards. But 375 is the utmost upper limit of what I'd be willing to pay and it's quite above what my wife has accepted as an idea yet.

[Tamas]

Generally waiting for house prices to drop is a losing game.

The last time we had a big realestate crash in central Texas was the mid 80s after Reagan doomed us all with his tax plan.

Since then there is no point where waiting would have benefited you at all. It has always gone up COVID or 2008 economic crisis be damned. I am sure in most other growth areas it is similar. The only thing that waiting could benefit you on is loan terms unless you are some millionaire who pays cash. But you can just refinance for that.

Apparently there was a big drop here in the 90s.

I was reading couple of weeks ago that the government's new scheme of 5% deposit support (where the government guarantees such loans with the nominal reason of helping first buyers) will not (yet) be used for actual flats by the banks, as they are deemed too much risk with the furlough scheme ending and economic outlooks too uncertain. The article (Guardian) claimed it was this 90s crash that lives in the banks' memory.