MLB 2021

[Syt]

At any rate, today's game PIT-CIN is off to a painful start.

Bottom of the 1st, Reds batting:
- HR on first pitch
- ground out into double due to fielding error
- BB
- BB
- BB (score 1, 2 strikes thrown on the 3 BBs)
- Sac Fly, scoring 1
- Line drive double, scoring 2
- ground out, putting Kuhl out of his misery

I know, it's rebuilding, it's not about the scores but about the progress, but sheesh.

Still waiting for a decent start by any of the Bucs' starting rotation.

[Barrister]

The Royals are currently sitting atop the AL Central standings with a 3-1 record.

I see no reason why they shouldn't hold onto that position all year.

[Valmy]

And exciting April 7th pennant race is underway with Toronto, Baltimore, and the Yankees all battling it out for first place!

[The Minsky Moment]

I think technique (or at least player development and selection) has changed: everyone wants to hit for power.

Yes the emphasis from development level on up is making hard contact and emphasizing bat speed, velocity off the bat and launch angles.  Pair that with emphasis on power pitching and FB velocity and you have formula for high strikeout, high HR outcomes. 

[alfred russel]

I think technique (or at least player development and selection) has changed: everyone wants to hit for power.

Yes the emphasis from development level on up is making hard contact and emphasizing bat speed, velocity off the bat and launch angles.  Pair that with emphasis on power pitching and FB velocity and you have formula for high strikeout, high HR outcomes.

Unfortunately it is self reinforcing. The guy who doesn't hit for power but makes up for it with speed on the bases and his glove is devalued. Stealing a base isn't so relevant if the guy hitting behind you is more likely going to either hit a home run or strike out. Defensive value is marginally less relevant in an era with less balls to be fielded (due to more strikeouts and home runs) and runners less aggressive on the basepaths (aggression down because less point in risking an out if the path across the plate is increasingly via a home run).

[The Minsky Moment]

Correct these kinds of trends can continue until same step is taken to reverse them.  One of the positive steps of the minor league reorg is that MLB apparently intends to use the new controlled minor leagues as labs to test various innovations.  Hopefully we will see some efforts aimed at restoring balance.

[Valmy]

Yeah I vastly prefer the ball to be in play as much as possible. As fun as it surely was for the Yankee fans to watch the Orioles strike out 14 times yesterday might have been

[The Minsky Moment]

Mets put on a shift vs Bryce Harper and he put down a bunt for a base hit, moving over the runner from second.  Nice to see from a $30 million man.

[Syt]

Speaking of salaries. The Pirates payroll this season is estimated at 46 million. Of those, 11 are for Gregory Polanco. I know they're not the biggest spenders, but this seems excessively low.

[The Minsky Moment]

They are definitely not underpaying Polanco. 

[Syt]

They are definitely not underpaying Polanco.

[alfred russel]

Mets put on a shift vs Bryce Harper and he put down a bunt for a base hit, moving over the runner from second.  Nice to see from a $30 million man.

Does anyone know what the WAR would be of a player like Harper if he walked every at bat? I assume it would lead the league.

[The Minsky Moment]

It would be the highest single season WAR of all time by a large margin.

It depends slightly on the weightings used each year in calculating weighted on base (WOBA)

A typical value for BB in the formula is around 0.7 so that would be a WOBA of 0.700.  If we assume a league average WOBA of .320 (it was .318 in the 2019 NL), a 1.25 scaling factor, and 650 plate appearances that translated into 198 runs above average (compare to 74 in Harper's MVP year).

For simplicity assume no park effects (Philly is pretty neutral); I am also excluding baserunning and other fiddly adjustments.  Harper plays RF which gets a negative positional adjustment but he plays it pretty well so assume its wash. You then have to add runs to adjust for the difference between replacement and average - at full-time it should be around 20.  Total runs over replacement is 218, which translated into a WAR in the 21-22 range.

The record for WAR (Bref) version by a non-19th century pitcher is Walter Johnson (1913) at 16.5
For a position player it is Babe Ruth (1923) at 14.1.  The best post war position player season was 1967 Yaz at 12.4
Barry Bond's highest single season bwar was 11.9.

This is another way of showing why just walking a Ruth or a Bonds every time they come up is not an optimal strategy.

[The Minsky Moment]

There are stats on average pitch velocity but a 30 second google didn't turn them up.

Fangraphs reports pitch velocity data from 2007 on.

In 2007 avg velocity of a fastball (4 seam) was a little above 91.  By 2008 it was inching above 92, and by 2014 it was up to 93
Fastball velocity appears to stabilize between 2017-2020 at between 93 and 93.5
In the early games of 2021 it is up to 94, but it may dip as we go deeper into the season.

[frunk]

Mets put on a shift vs Bryce Harper and he put down a bunt for a base hit, moving over the runner from second.  Nice to see from a $30 million man.

Does anyone know what the WAR would be of a player like Harper if he walked every at bat? I assume it would lead the league.

Barry Bonds without a Bat