Italian Politics

[Tonitrus]

I guess we should be fortunate that Germany isn't due for another election for a while.

[The Larch]

Seats haven't been allocated yet but most results are in, it pays to check the numbers, IMO.

- FdI are the clear winners, with 26% of the vote, a massive jump from their previous 4%.
- PD ended up second with 19%, basically keeping the same result from 2018.
- M5S dropped to third overall with 15%, a massive drop from their previous 32%. The biggest loosers of the election, probably.
- Lega also dropped significantly, receiving almost 9% from their previous 17%. It's obvious that FdI's rise has eaten away from them.
- FI dropped as well, and are down to 8% from their previous 14%.
- The center alliance, a new group including PD splinter Renzi, got almost 8% as well.

In total, the right wing alliance (FdI, Lega, FI, plus a minor irrelevant rump Christian Democrat party [there is always some minor irrelevant party trying to claim the mantle of the defunt Democrazia Cristiana]) got 44% of the vote, while the left wing alliance (PD, minor left wing parties that got small % and the failed Di Maio new party) got 26 %. Without knowing the exact amount of seats each party gets, I'd assume that with the current electoral system in place the right wing alliance should be able to rule by itself relatively comfortably.

[Zanza]

I guess we should be fortunate that Germany isn't due for another election for a while.

Why? The AfD in Germany is significantly weaker than similar parties in other countries and the CDU is not as populist yet. The next election in Germany is in Lower Saxony in two weeks and polls predict a majority for the center-left Social Democrats and Green Parties.

[Gups]

Seats haven't been allocated yet but most results are in, it pays to check the numbers, IMO.

- FdI are the clear winners, with 26% of the vote, a massive jump from their previous 4%.
- PD ended up second with 19%, basically keeping the same result from 2018.
- M5S dropped to third overall with 15%, a massive drop from their previous 32%. The biggest loosers of the election, probably.
- Lega also dropped significantly, receiving almost 9% from their previous 17%. It's obvious that FdI's rise has eaten away from them.
- FI dropped as well, and are down to 8% from their previous 14%.
- The center alliance, a new group including PD splinter Renzi, got almost 8% as well.

In total, the right wing alliance (FdI, Lega, FI, plus a minor irrelevant rump Christian Democrat party [there is always some minor irrelevant party trying to claim the mantle of the defunt Democrazia Cristiana]) got 44% of the vote, while the left wing alliance (PD, minor left wing parties that got small % and the failed Di Maio new party) got 26 %. Without knowing the exact amount of seats each party gets, I'd assume that with the current electoral system in place the right wing alliance should be able to rule by itself relatively comfortably.

How stable is the alliance do you think?

[Valmy]

So is Berlusconi going to be PM again? Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose?

[Barrister]

So is Berlusconi going to be PM again? Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose?

As I understand it - highly unlikely.  Berlusconi's party was in third place amongst the right-wing alliance.

Giorgia Meloni is expected to be PM.

To be clear, I had to google to get Meloni's name - I am not an expert in Italian politics.

[Valmy]

Yeah I don't know anything, I just saw his face there at the victory party. 

Radical nutters win in Italy. Hopefully not radical enough that this is the last fair election in Italy for awhile.

[Barrister]

Yeah I don't know anything, I just saw his face there at the victory party. 

Radical nutters win in Italy. Hopefully not radical enough that this is the last fair election in Italy for awhile.

Reading up on it, Meloni's party is euroskeptic and anti-immigrant, but has been firmly in support of Ukraine (unlike her coalition partners), which at least makes me thing they won't just be a Russian shill.

[Valmy]

Immigrants and the EU, the causes and solutions to all of Europe's problems.

[Tonitrus]

I guess we should be fortunate that Germany isn't due for another election for a while.

Why? The AfD in Germany is significantly weaker than similar parties in other countries and the CDU is not as populist yet. The next election in Germany is in Lower Saxony in two weeks and polls predict a majority for the center-left Social Democrats and Green Parties.

Just a bad joke on historical parallels.  If i recall right, Italy went fascist first with Mussolini, then Germany shortly thereafter.

[Zanza]

I guess we should be fortunate that Germany isn't due for another election for a while.

Why? The AfD in Germany is significantly weaker than similar parties in other countries and the CDU is not as populist yet. The next election in Germany is in Lower Saxony in two weeks and polls predict a majority for the center-left Social Democrats and Green Parties.

Just a bad joke on historical parallels.  If i recall right, Italy went fascist first with Mussolini, then Germany shortly thereafter.

Your recollection is wrong. There were more then ten years between Mussolini's March on Rome and Hitler becoming German chancellor. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I guess we should be fortunate that Germany isn't due for another election for a while.

Why? The AfD in Germany is significantly weaker than similar parties in other countries and the CDU is not as populist yet. The next election in Germany is in Lower Saxony in two weeks and polls predict a majority for the center-left Social Democrats and Green Parties.

Just a bad joke on historical parallels.  If i recall right, Italy went fascist first with Mussolini, then Germany shortly thereafter.

Your recollection is wrong. There were more then ten years between Mussolini's March on Rome and Hitler becoming German chancellor. 

given that this close to a century ago the term 'shortly' is becoming appropriate :p

[Syt]

Hitler's own march shortly after Mussolini's in '23 did not go too well, actually.

[The Larch]

Seats haven't been allocated yet but most results are in, it pays to check the numbers, IMO.

- FdI are the clear winners, with 26% of the vote, a massive jump from their previous 4%.
- PD ended up second with 19%, basically keeping the same result from 2018.
- M5S dropped to third overall with 15%, a massive drop from their previous 32%. The biggest loosers of the election, probably.
- Lega also dropped significantly, receiving almost 9% from their previous 17%. It's obvious that FdI's rise has eaten away from them.
- FI dropped as well, and are down to 8% from their previous 14%.
- The center alliance, a new group including PD splinter Renzi, got almost 8% as well.

In total, the right wing alliance (FdI, Lega, FI, plus a minor irrelevant rump Christian Democrat party [there is always some minor irrelevant party trying to claim the mantle of the defunt Democrazia Cristiana]) got 44% of the vote, while the left wing alliance (PD, minor left wing parties that got small % and the failed Di Maio new party) got 26 %. Without knowing the exact amount of seats each party gets, I'd assume that with the current electoral system in place the right wing alliance should be able to rule by itself relatively comfortably.

How stable is the alliance do you think?

It's Italy, so stability can never be taken for granted in a government coalition, but in recent history the right has been a bit better at sticking together than the left. It will depend on how the parties get along, mostly FdI and Lega, which AFAIK have already some brewing tension between them, but I think that the seat distribution with the current electoral system will make any potential alternative highly unlikely.

Another potential issue are FdI's growing pains. It has to be remembered that they were, until very recently, a fringe party. How they go from that to ruling party is yet to be seen.

[The Larch]

In terms of "winners and losers", I'd say there's only a clear winner, and that's FdI and Meloni, who we can assume that will now be in charge of the new government, barring any possible shenanigans by Mattarella, who is the one actually in charge of picking the PM. Not picking Meloni, as unpleasant as it might be, could cause a constitutional crisis.

Losers there are plenty... Letta (PD) took all the wrong decisions during the campaign (failed to keep Renzi and other moderates from splitting, refused a M5S electoral alliance that could have been successful), and has now resigned. Di Maio (ex M5S) failed spectacularely and is now out of the picture for the time being, as he didn't even manage to win his own seat. Conte (M5S) has taken the party from being in government for the first time and being the most voted party in the country to a split, making the government fall and provoking the elections, then a lacklustre 3rd spot and, more or less, irrelevance in the current parlamentary arrangement. Even Salvini (Lega) could be said to be a loser as well, as after getting the best historical results for the Lega in 2018, becoming the foremost party of the right in the country, has now swiftly plumetted back and must to accept a junior role to FdI in their coalition.

Funny thing is, at least in term of voting % (it remains to be seen how that translates to MPs), theoretically a PD(+smaller allied parties)+M5S+"Moderates" has a higher % of votes than the winning coalition, so their domination is not as absolute as it might seem at first. Then again, it's virtually impossible to unite those parties together.