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A Collection of Unimitigated Pedantry

Started by Jacob, January 15, 2021, 03:47:41 PM

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The Minsky Moment

I'd put money on a well-conditioned and trained US marine against a Congolese militiaman any day of the week.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

grumbler

That societies eventually become decadent and grow weaker than rising neighboring societies is a truism.  That's not the Fremen Mirage as defined by the guy who invented the term, though.

There is an element of truth in the idea that tough conditions weed out the unfit, leaving only survivor-types, and that, the tougher the conditions, the stronger the survivors (as individuals).  But the necessary corollary is that the tougher conditions leave fewer survivors, and it isn't at all clear that god is even more on the side of the tougher battalions than he is on the side of the bigger ones.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

crazy canuck

Yep, if given a choice, I think I would rather be on the side of the well fed, well equipped and well trained.

Habbaku

Quote from: Eddie Teach on January 25, 2021, 11:23:20 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 24, 2021, 08:21:04 PM
The extreme example the author uses is a strawman.  If it was true we'd have been conquered by the Inuit by now, but the basic idea of civilization causing weak, decadent, soft men is a pretty common one and that the reverse, that privitation makes strong warriors is a common one.  Am I spelling "privitation" correctly?Because the autocorrect does not like that word.

Two mediocre warriors > one strong one

Organized, competently-led, well-trained, logistically-supported warriors > strong ones.
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.

-J. R. R. Tolkien

The Brain

Guy roaming the badlands with Lorenzo Lamas hair > trained militia type.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Razgovory

I reject the idea that any sort of poverty makes a warrior better.  All it does is make warriors hungrier.  I don't know what "decadence" is exactly in this situation or why it should make a soldier inferior.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

The Minsky Moment

Every organized, settled society faces the problem of civil-military relations. One common solution in pre-modern times is that the autocratic ruler is also the leader of the army, but that just pushes the problem into a succession problem - e.g. the weak heir in a purely hereditary system or disputed successions in other system.  There are also many other kinds of solutions but no pre national solution can permanently fix the problem of how to ensure the simultaneous loyalty and effectiveness of a settled military force across time.

Nomadic or less organized societies don't face exactly this type of problem but they tend to a default state of disunity or tribal-based divisions.  Every now and then such societies can be united by a some combinations(s) of a charismatic leader, an unusually effective or lucky military leader, or a wave of religious fervor.  If that moment of unification happens to coincide with a relative low ebb in the civil-military cohesion of a neighboring settled society, then that settled society is in trouble.  That is a dynamic described in ibn Khaldun's Muqaddimah and it is one played out in Dune.  It doesn't really have anything to do with individual warriors being made "tough" by privation - although that could be true in individual cases.  Herbert's space Arabians live quietly for centuries in the long shadow of Herbert's space Perso-Byzantines; its not until the outsider Liet-Kynes activates them that they unify and become political conscious in a way that is catalyzed when other charismatic outsiders are suddenly thrust in their midst.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

grumbler

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 25, 2021, 02:35:10 PM
Every organized, settled society faces the problem of civil-military relations. One common solution in pre-modern times is that the autocratic ruler is also the leader of the army, but that just pushes the problem into a succession problem - e.g. the weak heir in a purely hereditary system or disputed successions in other system.  There are also many other kinds of solutions but no pre national solution can permanently fix the problem of how to ensure the simultaneous loyalty and effectiveness of a settled military force across time.

Nomadic or less organized societies don't face exactly this type of problem but they tend to a default state of disunity or tribal-based divisions.  Every now and then such societies can be united by a some combinations(s) of a charismatic leader, an unusually effective or lucky military leader, or a wave of religious fervor.  If that moment of unification happens to coincide with a relative low ebb in the civil-military cohesion of a neighboring settled society, then that settled society is in trouble.  That is a dynamic described in ibn Khaldun's Muqaddimah and it is one played out in Dune.  It doesn't really have anything to do with individual warriors being made "tough" by privation - although that could be true in individual cases.  Herbert's space Arabians live quietly for centuries in the long shadow of Herbert's space Perso-Byzantines; its not until the outsider Liet-Kynes activates them that they unify and become political conscious in a way that is catalyzed when other charismatic outsiders are suddenly thrust in their midst.

If we are going to Geek about this, I'd note that it was Pardot Keynes who was the outsider.  His son Liet Keynes was a Fremen, pretending for the sake of his people to be an Imperial and an outsider to Arrakis.

And I think we cannot underestimate the impact of the Bene Gesserit in seeding the idea of a messianic/charismatic future leader amongst the Fremen.  Paul Atreides didn't just luck into a situation made for him.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: grumbler on January 25, 2021, 08:46:14 PM
If we are going to Geek about this, I'd note that it was Pardot Keynes who was the outsider.  His son Liet Keynes was a Fremen, pretending for the sake of his people to be an Imperial and an outsider to Arrakis.

And I think we cannot underestimate the impact of the Bene Gesserit in seeding the idea of a messianic/charismatic future leader amongst the Fremen.  Paul Atreides didn't just luck into a situation made for him.

You are correct; it's been a while since I read the books.  But the point is the same - even reinforced - that without the influences and sparks from the outside, the Fremen would have remained quiescent.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

crazy canuck

The thing that really binds us together.  A deep understanding of what is truly important - Sci Fi and Fantasy literature.  :)

grumbler

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 25, 2021, 09:05:24 PM
You are correct; it's been a while since I read the books.  But the point is the same - even reinforced - that without the influences and sparks from the outside, the Fremen would have remained quiescent.

I quite agree.  Even the conquering groups like the Huns and Mongols only set out to conquering when the climate changed and they could no longer support their current numbers on the steppes.  Without that influence they, too, would have remained quiescent (as, indeed, they did for most of history).
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Barrister

Quote from: grumbler on January 25, 2021, 10:11:44 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 25, 2021, 09:05:24 PM
You are correct; it's been a while since I read the books.  But the point is the same - even reinforced - that without the influences and sparks from the outside, the Fremen would have remained quiescent.

I quite agree.  Even the conquering groups like the Huns and Mongols only set out to conquering when the climate changed and they could no longer support their current numbers on the steppes.  Without that influence they, too, would have remained quiescent (as, indeed, they did for most of history).

How about the Arabs, who are probably the most direct Fremen inspiration?
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

grumbler

Quote from: Barrister on January 25, 2021, 10:15:42 PM
Quote from: grumbler on January 25, 2021, 10:11:44 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on January 25, 2021, 09:05:24 PM
You are correct; it's been a while since I read the books.  But the point is the same - even reinforced - that without the influences and sparks from the outside, the Fremen would have remained quiescent.

I quite agree.  Even the conquering groups like the Huns and Mongols only set out to conquering when the climate changed and they could no longer support their current numbers on the steppes.  Without that influence they, too, would have remained quiescent (as, indeed, they did for most of history).

How about the Arabs, who are probably the most direct Fremen inspiration?

The Arabs were hardly poor people.  The Bedouin lived a pretty hard life (and Mohammed was a Bedouin) but the Arabs were at the heart of the global trade system in the classical and post-classical era, and Syria was notoriously rich.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Razgovory

The other super soldiers in that novel were the Sardukar and they were so tough because they lived on a hellish prison planet (I guess the one Alex Jones is always going on about).  The freemen beat the Sardukar because they were even tougher, forged from by the desert planet Arakis.  In reality hardened criminals make terrible soldiers.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Valmy

Quote from: Razgovory on January 25, 2021, 02:14:07 PM
I reject the idea that any sort of poverty makes a warrior better.  All it does is make warriors hungrier.  I don't know what "decadence" is exactly in this situation or why it should make a soldier inferior.

I don't think this theory really works in the period after gunpowder was invented. Before that nomadic types were militarily comparable than the settled civilizations, sometimes better.

But how often has this worked out since 1500 or so?
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Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."