Quo Vadis GOP?

[DGuller]

The ultra left are a problem because they scare some people into voting for the right, which is what leaves us with Manchin and Sinema as kingmakers in the first place.

The ultra left politicians like Pelosi and Hillary Clinton?

I didn't say anything about politicians.  Most of the "defund the police" idiots who made the left own the very real decrease in the feeling of physical safety are not politicians.

[Berkut]

Democrats need to run on basic messages, since people are dumb. "Medicare for all. The vote is for everybody. Clean air, clean water".

Just hammer that shit, nothing else, billboards everywhere etc. The alternative is using the gqp playbook and just lying and abusing power, which no democrat seems to be ready to do (yet).

I think this is right.

Keep it simple, for the stupids.

[Zoupa]

Democrats need to run on basic messages, since people are dumb. "Medicare for all. The vote is for everybody. Clean air, clean water".

Just hammer that shit, nothing else, billboards everywhere etc. The alternative is using the gqp playbook and just lying and abusing power, which no democrat seems to be ready to do (yet).

It would also help to actually deliver on these things too.

You need a working majority for that.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Voting rights cloture motion fails.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-brace-for-likely-defeat-of-voting-rights-push-due-to-gop-filibuster/2022/01/19/2f9a734c-792d-11ec-bf97-6eac6f77fba2_story.html

Sinema and Manchin join the GOP in opposing voting rights.

[Valmy]

So why does Sinema want to lose? That's weird. She is not exactly winning tons of Democratic support here and if she thinks the GOP is going to not try to replace her she has another thing coming. SIs there some big constituency among Arizona Democrats for things like low wages and GOP voting policies? Who is going to vote for Sinema in the next election? I get where Manchin is coming from but I don't get her politically.

Oh well. I don't get politics. Sheilbh will come in and probably explain how it is a genius move.

[Sheilbh]

Democrats need to run on basic messages, since people are dumb. "Medicare for all. The vote is for everybody. Clean air, clean water".

Just hammer that shit, nothing else, billboards everywhere etc. The alternative is using the gqp playbook and just lying and abusing power, which no democrat seems to be ready to do (yet).

Yeah.

It's that old line that because the vast majority of people don't pay attention to politics most of the time (because they're normal, well-adjusted, thriving) a line is only starting to cut through to the general public when the political obsessives are making it a meme/making jokes about how they constantly hear it.

Oh well. I don't get politics. Sheilbh will come in and probably explain how it is a genius move.

As I say I've no idea what's motivating Sinema it seems very weird - apart from the inherent untrustworthiness and duplicity of the Greens, America's Lib Dems.

But I think there is an element with Sinema of empty formalism - of repeating the forms but with the meaning removed. So I understand she was close to McCain and a huge admirer of McCain. I think to an extent she is playing the role of ornery, diffficult Arizona Senator who bucks their party/makes life difficult for Majority Leader. But there's no content or ideology there driving that, as there was with McCain. It's just performance.

[alfred russel]

I don't think it is at all hard to explain Sinema, whether she sees a long term future in the senate or not.

If she just wants to win reelection, she is from a state that went to Biden by 0.3%. Virginia and New Jersey indicated about a 10-12% shift to republicans since then, and polling appears to back that up. 2024 is a lifetime away but it isn't hard to imagine she anticipates a risk of a shift to republicans versus 2020, and in this environment her chances of winning a general election in Arizona would be miniscule. Yes she is inviting a primary challenge, but in the 400 or so senate elections since 2000, i'm not sure there has ever been a primary challenger that beat an incumbent senator and won the seat. If there really is a shift to republicans in 2024, a democratic strategy of replacing Sinema with a challenger to her left is doomed. They might be able to beat Sinema in the primary but a challenger to the left is almost certainly going to lose in an Arizona general.

bottom line, Sinema may assess that she is from a swing state and history shows that her main risk is in the general, and assuming some risk in a primary is worth it for insurance in the general.

On the other hand, if she doesn't want a long term senate career, could anything set her up better for a fox news gig, or even better as a lobbyist? She will have a record as a centrist democrat, progressive on more social issues, but conservative on more corporate type issues.

[Zoupa]

Or, she's bought and paid for.

[DGuller]

It does get kind of hard to find innocent explanations for those two (not that we should let off the hook the other 50 who vote in tandem and make these two the kingmakers).  By this point the talk of those two idiots about the need to work together with Republicans is sounding less genuine than Russian claims about needing to protect itself from Ukraine.  Do they really expect their election prospects to get better with a more rigged system?

[Sheilbh]

If she just wants to win reelection, she is from a state that went to Biden by 0.3%. Virginia and New Jersey indicated about a 10-12% shift to republicans since then, and polling appears to back that up. 2024 is a lifetime away but it isn't hard to imagine she anticipates a risk of a shift to republicans versus 2020, and in this environment her chances of winning a general election in Arizona would be miniscule. Yes she is inviting a primary challenge, but in the 400 or so senate elections since 2000, i'm not sure there has ever been a primary challenger that beat an incumbent senator and won the seat. If there really is a shift to republicans in 2024, a democratic strategy of replacing Sinema with a challenger to her left is doomed. They might be able to beat Sinema in the primary but a challenger to the left is almost certainly going to lose in an Arizona general.

bottom line, Sinema may assess that she is from a swing state and history shows that her main risk is in the general, and assuming some risk in a primary is worth it for insurance in the general.

But from what I understand her polling is worse than Mark Kelly who's just being a "generic Dem", so I don't see that approach working. Especially given that in recent elections the trend has been that what matters most is getting out your party's vote.

Plus from a distance it looks like the US is becoming more national and maybe parliamentary (just without the upside of always being able to pass legislation), where national swing between the parties is what matters and there are increasingly few hold-outs where their personal vote is so large they can resist uniform swing one way or the other. Manchin is one, I'm not sure I've seen anything that makes me think Sinema is or that it's the type of state where that approach works (as opposed to, say, a West Virginia Democrat or a New England Republican).

[alfred russel]

It does get kind of hard to find innocent explanations for those two (not that we should let off the hook the other 50 who vote in tandem and make these two the kingmakers).  By this point the talk of those two idiots about the need to work together with Republicans is sounding less genuine than Russian claims about needing to protect itself from Ukraine.  Do they really expect their election prospects to get better with a more rigged system?

Democrats ran a candidate in West Virginia that has constantly talked about dealing with republicans, not being a liberal, generally against abortion rights, and did stuff like take a shotgun and shoot a copy of a cap and trade bill in a campaign ad. At a certain point, isn't he who he always said he is?

[grumbler]

It does get kind of hard to find innocent explanations for those two (not that we should let off the hook the other 50 who vote in tandem and make these two the kingmakers).  By this point the talk of those two idiots about the need to work together with Republicans is sounding less genuine than Russian claims about needing to protect itself from Ukraine.  Do they really expect their election prospects to get better with a more rigged system?

Democrats ran a candidate in West Virginia that has constantly talked about dealing with republicans, not being a liberal, generally against abortion rights, and did stuff like take a shotgun and shoot a copy of a cap and trade bill in a campaign ad. At a certain point, isn't he who he always said he is?

Well, he always said that he was a Democrat, but he has always really been a Republican.  That works for him in West Virginia, but works against Democrats nationally because he confuses the public on the actual vote balance in the Senate.

I frankly don't understand his popularity in WV.  He's generally been against things that would help the average West Virginian, and only favored those policies that hurt the people but help the coal industry.

[alfred russel]

But from what I understand her polling is worse than Mark Kelly who's just being a "generic Dem", so I don't see that approach working.

I don't think that is true. Her polling is in line with Mark Kelly overall, but probably much better for a general election. The reason being that while a large percentage of democrats don't like her, they are likely to favor her in a general election anyway, and she is doing better among most other voters.

Especially given that in recent elections the trend has been that what matters most is getting out your party's vote.

Sorry Sheilbh but this is really silly. I'm not sure that it is ever true, but her next reelection is in 2024 in a presidential year (and the following election is 2030). I doubt people are going to decline to show up to vote in an election with the president on the ballot because sinema doesn't support reforming the filibuster or whatever.

It is the same shit that Minsky Moment was trying to argue a year ago with Warnock in 2022. That he has to keep his base fired up to get reelected. It was so dumb I just can't get it out of my head. Stacey Abrams is running for governor in 2022. Anyone who ever wanted to show up to vote in a non presidential year is going to show up in Georgia in 2022. People downballot from the primary race don't have to motivate people to turn out: they just have to maximize the number of votes that they get from the people that are showing up.

[viper37]

Or, she's bought and paid for.

Of course. No one in his right mind would ever be a centrist without being bought.

[Syt]

Democrats need to run on basic messages, since people are dumb. "Medicare for all. The vote is for everybody. Clean air, clean water".

Just hammer that shit, nothing else, billboards everywhere etc. The alternative is using the gqp playbook and just lying and abusing power, which no democrat seems to be ready to do (yet).

It would also help to actually deliver on these things too.

What was the last major federal GOP legislation that positively affected the average American, or a significant portion of Americans long term? (Genuine question, I don't know.)