Quo Vadis GOP?

[Admiral Yi]

I say 150,000 in the US.

[alfred russel]

Hard to say. I don't think Trump is the primary driver of culture war craziness though.

With masks he certainly was the primary driver.  The whole concept of anti-lockdown protests and anti-mask rallies is so absurd it's hard to imagine that people would consider it if Trump had not endorsed this bullshit.  I suspect that he influenced the anti-lockdown protests in other countries.  The man is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths.

You are giving Trump way too much credit if you think that Trump--one of the most unpopular leaders internationally the US ever had--touched off a global trend of anti lockdown rallies. I get that his leadership was absolute shit on this front, but he ultimately wore masks and advocated their use. He has advocated vaccines.

[alfred russel]

That's why I said some of those 600,000 people.  Obviously many would die anyway, but I have a hard time believing that obvious buffoonery and politicizing did not exacerbate the death toll significantly.

Cigarette smoking causes 480,000 deaths EVERY YEAR per the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm

So a new disease came along and killed more people than it could have with a different response. A response that would have resulted in a shittier covid experience for the bulk of us that couldn't live normal lives.

If on day 1 Trump somehow stopped smoking but also somehow convinced the US to have virtually no covid response and the estimated 2 million people died from covid, we would have roughly come out neutral in terms of death but day to day life would have been less intruded on.

The focus is all on covid because it is shiny and new and there are lots of scary stories on the news, but in terms of carnage there are other preventable things that no one cares about because they are just consistent background noise.

[HisMajestyBOB]

600,000 dead is nothing compared to being unable to go rock climbing. 

[HisMajestyBOB]

The worst thing the Nazis did, btw? Stopped Dorsey's great grandpa from going rock climbing in the Alps for four whole years.

[grumbler]

The worst thing the Nazis did, btw? Stopped Dorsey's great grandpa from going rock climbing in the Alps for four whole years.

And those were the years that the hills were alive with the sound of music.

[alfred russel]

The worst thing the Nazis did, btw? Stopped Dorsey's great grandpa from going rock climbing in the Alps for four whole years.

Both of my grandfathers got free trips to Europe out of the Nazi regime.

[Sheilbh]

I could be wrong - but I suspect the bigger impact of a Trump administration on covid response was actually incompetence/indifference/infighting within the Federal government. Especially once it was clear Trump didn't really care and sort of wanted to underplay it - I think there was a fair amount of "working towards Trump" among a lot of his appointees (especially the dimmer ones).

I get the sense that there was just a bit of a vacuum in a lot of places where the Federal government should have been helping spread information, coordinating etc and a lot of states were sort of left on their own (there was, incidentally, a similar process in Russia but it was more deliberate). As I say I might be wrong but I suspect that may have had a bigger impact than the public messaging failures.

It was my constant panic during the Trump years: what happens if there's a crisis? Because it wasn't just that I thought Trump wouldn't deal with it well, but that the people willing to be appointed in a Trump administration would also not be able to make the sort of gears of state work as they should.

[alfred russel]

600,000 dead is nothing compared to being unable to go rock climbing.

It is just a bizarre trope on this forum. I'm been vociferously complaining about getting a government order to not leave my home last year, facing penalties of up to a year in jail.

Imagine tomorrow the government of some state announces that some minority group can't leave their homes for non essential reasons under penalties of up to a year in jail and that policy is in place for a few weeks or a month. That shit would be (quite rightly) massively criticized for a very long time. Would it be better if it was everyone subject to that policy rather than just a minority group?

I get that they weren't actively trying to be oppressive but the WHO has come out against lockdowns in all but the worst cases which I was never in. It was as extreme government reaction. It never should have happened.

[Sheilbh]

Also I support lockdown's but AR is right that it is - and always has been - ridiculous to impose on outdoor gatherings as if they're the same as indoor gatherings when, in the context of an airborne disease, they're nowhere near the same risk.

I still think we don't emphasise enough the importance of that difference and focus too much, still, on stuff that has limited effectiveness in reducing transmission. But stopping people from doing outdoor things, making people wear masks outdoors etc is not really that helpful.

[Solmyr]

Hard to say. I don't think Trump is the primary driver of culture war craziness though.

With masks he certainly was the primary driver.  The whole concept of anti-lockdown protests and anti-mask rallies is so absurd it's hard to imagine that people would consider it if Trump had not endorsed this bullshit.  I suspect that he influenced the anti-lockdown protests in other countries.  The man is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths.

You are giving Trump way too much credit if you think that Trump--one of the most unpopular leaders internationally the US ever had--touched off a global trend of anti lockdown rallies. I get that his leadership was absolute shit on this front, but he ultimately wore masks and advocated their use. He has advocated vaccines.

Dude, our extreme rightwingers love Trump. One of the leading figures and presidential candidate of Finland's far right nationalist party (with 20-25% support) speaks of being at Trump's prayer breakfast like a religious experience.

[viper37]

Also I support lockdown's but AR is right that it is - and always has been - ridiculous to impose on outdoor gatherings as if they're the same as indoor gatherings when, in the context of an airborne disease, they're nowhere near the same risk.

don't know about Georgia, but restrictions on outdoor gatherings were the same as indoor for only the first few months, before we knew with certainty it was airborne, and could be transmitted asymptomatically.

there was no mask mandate for outdoor activities here, until the UK variant gave birth to the 3rd wave.  And small outdoor gatherings were always tolerated, compared to indoor ones.  No ban on outdoor activities outside the first few months (March-May).

[Berkut]

Like I said, Trump was not alone in getting many thousands more killed then needed to be. He had considerably help from the useful idiots out there doing their part to undermine and politicize the response.

[Jacob]

The president of the US has a bully pulpit and institutional influence. It has the most impact in the US, but American influence is felt throughout the world.

If Trump had been "this is a serious issue" and "follow the science" out the gate, fewer people would've died in the US and across the world.

Leadership matters.

[Razgovory]

The president of the US has a bully pulpit and institutional influence. It has the most impact in the US, but American influence is felt throughout the world.

If Trump had been "this is a serious issue" and "follow the science" out the gate, fewer people would've died in the US and across the world.

Leadership matters.

Yeah, I think it's easy to underestimate the influence an American president has.  Other leaders have done damage as well, most notably Bolsarno in Brazil, the US president is the one everyone looks to.  Love us or hate us the US is still the most powerful country on Earth and that power comes with responsibility.