What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[DGuller]

I suspect that the culture war is the winning part of the overall losing formula, and this is why it's not going anywhere.

[Syt]

One of the more terrifying parts of the "Florida Experiment" for me is that DeSantis seems to be polling better and better and getting wider and wider support for his madness as core tenets of the Republican Party's new platform as well as skewing the Overton Window so incredibly far toward his policies that any type of reasonable discussion on things is impossible. I'll freely admit I am very radical on my stances on many issues, some of which directly impact me and are not just debate fodder, but... wow. The total lack of media accountability in the face of this madness and also their continued attempts to eternally "both sides" issues at best is very, very troubling. Especially when even if they do "both sides" something, it doesn't tend to have actual affected trans people involved regarding trans representation in particular. I was hoping the lack of a Red Wave/Tsunami/whatever in 2022's elections would have convinced Republicans to find a new target other than "The Culture War" in general and trans people in particular. I should have known I wouldn't be that lucky. The number of bills being proposed is increasing, the draconian measures being demanded are increasing, and more of these bills are becoming laws. It is honestly terrifying to be trans in America right now. My one saving grace is that I live in New York, a blue state. But that will only do so much if a Republican wins the Presidency... 

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think unfortunately that targeting trans people is going to be really lucrative for Republicans for a few reasons. One is that they are such a small minority they don't have as many avenues to mainstream support as gay people did. Most people I have ever known have a gay relative, maybe not in their nuclear family, but a cousin or uncle or etc. The more it became acceptable for them to be "open", the more awareness people had of gay relatives. That made it harder and harder to sustain high levels of hate and vitriol.

By any measure, transgenderism whatever its causes, is just much less common than homosexuality. Most people do not actually have a trans relative or friend or even regularly see trans people. I've seen some estimates that there are less than 1m trans people in the United States. Like most things around the LGBT+ community, taking a "census" of that population is riddled with problems so I don't want to get bogged down on which numbers are right and why, but undeniably this is a much less common thing than homosexuality.

That means it is much easier to engage in "othering." And there are fewer opportunities to undermine that othering.

The other thing is, there are elements of the trans community--and I am not knowledgeable enough in their community to know if these are majority views there or just one set of views among many, that promote some ideas that IMO most people disagree with, and are not likely to change opinions on. Some of these ideas:

1. The idea that gender fundamentally is "fake" or purely cultural. Sorry, but I deeply believe that while specific expressions of gender are cultural to a degree, I also think gender differences, even cultural ones, have some biological origin. Most people who are male or female biologically, view that as an inextricable part of their personal identity. They do not believe they are just on a sliding scale and that their gender isn't real, and most of them actually get angry and upset if you try to tell them that is the case.

2. The idea that respect for someone's gender identification means you can never treat or regard them in any way differently than a cisgender person. There are many points in this debate--with lots of nuance. On one extreme, in my opinion, is the view that a transwoman (i.e. a biological male) should be allowed to freely compete in sports against biological females or that they should be housed in female prisons, even when they are not undergoing any gender hormone treatments or etc. Obviously most authorities and governing bodies do not hold this view, most try to "split the difference" by creating rules around testosterone levels and things of that nature, I think with enough explanation, some people will be amenable to those views. But in certain contexts when it is clear that the biological differences between the sexes still has some policy implications, I think insisting that we can never regard a trans person in any way ever as anything but a biological member of their identified gender, just isn't going to work for people.

3. The idea that any question about the medical treatments trans people receive, particularly trans children is not a valid area of discussion. There are diverse views on what sort of gender care children should receive, and even diverse views on what the best treatments are for adults. However, a significant point of rhetoric seems to be labeling anyone who doesn't adhere to certain (medically debatable) regimes is a bigot, and people just aren't going to like that.

[Barrister]

I suspect that the culture war is the winning part of the overall losing formula, and this is why it's not going anywhere.

Sadly, but yes.

The straight-up crazy part of the GOP is a losing issue - the conspiracy theories, election denying, the straight-up lying about provable facts.  That explains the lack of a red wave last November.

But the culture war stuff is a winner.  And that definitely includes trans people.  Not saying it's right, just calling it as I see it.

Look - I can definitely point to examples of trans activists, in particular on Twitter, taking much too far or extreme of views.  But trans people are just trying to live their lives as best as they can and really don't deserve to be demonized in order to score cheap political points.


I think I made this point before - are trans people really that rare though?  I can think of three people in real life (one de-transed), and Sophie and BuddhaR online, who are trans that I know...

[The Larch]

I read some political comentator over here writing about DeSantis and his background and wondering how much of his beligerant culture warrior attitude is a seriously held belief and how much is him deciding that it's a winning political strategy and going full hog on it. What do you guys think?

[Zoupa]

I read some political comentator over here writing about DeSantis and his background and wondering how much of his beligerant culture warrior attitude is a seriously held belief and how much is him deciding that it's a winning political strategy and going full hog on it. What do you guys think?

It doesn't matter.

[Barrister]

I read some political comentator over here writing about DeSantis and his background and wondering how much of his beligerant culture warrior attitude is a seriously held belief and how much is him deciding that it's a winning political strategy and going full hog on it. What do you guys think?

It doesn't matter.

It was like wondering whether Trump believes all the nonsense coming out of his mouth or not.  In the end it really doesn't matter.

[The Brain]

He tried so hard, and got so far.

[The Larch]

I assume that the motivation of the author was to wonder if, in case he's only spousing those culture war issues for political convenience, how likely he is to drop them or only follow them half-heartedly once he has achieved his political aims.

[Admiral Yi]

It was like wondering whether Trump believes all the nonsense coming out of his mouth or not.  In the end it really doesn't matter.

It matters in terms of evaluating the stupidity of the people who buy into his message.

[Admiral Yi]

Caught a bit of the State of the Union.  Not bad.

[Josquius]

I suspect that the culture war is the winning part of the overall losing formula, and this is why it's not going anywhere.

Sadly, but yes.

The straight-up crazy part of the GOP is a losing issue - the conspiracy theories, election denying, the straight-up lying about provable facts.  That explains the lack of a red wave last November.

But the culture war stuff is a winner.  And that definitely includes trans people.  Not saying it's right, just calling it as I see it.

Look - I can definitely point to examples of trans activists, in particular on Twitter, taking much too far or extreme of views.  But trans people are just trying to live their lives as best as they can and really don't deserve to be demonized in order to score cheap political points.


I think I made this point before - are trans people really that rare though?  I can think of three people in real life (one de-transed), and Sophie and BuddhaR online, who are trans that I know...

Out of how many people you know is the question.
They're different so they stand out, but consider you "know" hundreds on hundreds of people and the 1% or less of the population figure holds up.
I guess this an issue with twitter nonsense too- it isn't the majority, but it stands out so gains inflated value.

[Syt]

[The Minsky Moment]

I read some political comentator over here writing about DeSantis and his background and wondering how much of his beligerant culture warrior attitude is a seriously held belief and how much is him deciding that it's a winning political strategy and going full hog on it. What do you guys think?

It doesn't matter.

This.

Just because he went to good schools and got high standardized test scores doesn't mean he's not a SOB.  We already learned this lesson with Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton.  Despite the widespread (and false) view of "top" US universities as undifferentiated pools of radical leftists, plenty of the students who attend are determined right-wingers   - and use their educational experience to build credentials and/or bolster their own view of themselves as courageous cultural warriors holding the fort of  Christian truth against the evil atheist hordes.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Another way of looking at--are there "crazy" Republicans who know a lot of the things they argue for, or points they make, are unreasonable and even blatantly stupid and untrue? Absolutely. Hawley, DeSantis, Cruz all likely know a significant portion of things they advocate for are bad ideas. They have broader goals of promoting conservative political power, and are simply "disinterested" in the validity or reasonableness of the bricks they need to use to construct that power. They are as comfortable using "bad bricks" as they are "good bricks."

In a political environment where being a respectable George H.W. Bush or Nelson Rockefeller style Republican was more effective at building conservative political power, those three would be that type of Republican instead. That doesn't at all mean they are safe to entrust with power--the opposite, in fact. They are demonstrating that they do not care at all about anything other than the accumulation of power for their political faction and do not care at all about egregious harms anything they undertake for that purpose might cause.

I guess it means if you were in a bar with them where they knew no one would ever record or repeat what was said, you might be able to have a more reasonable conversation with them than with "genuine" crazy people like Lauren Boebert or Paul Gosar, but from a governance perspective that difference has no meaning at all.