What does a BIDEN Presidency look like?

[grumbler]

Do we have any New Yorkers here who can tell us how likely Andrew's candidacy is?

I thought NYC generally despised Trump, and I'd expect that the Guiliani name would be pretty closely associated with Trump at this point.

He's never even run for elective office before.  I suspect his campaign will die in the primaries.  Not a new Yorker, though, so that's mostly spitballing.

Andrew Yang (and before him, Trump) seem to indicate that's not such a big obstacle.

But I'm not even an american.

Andrew yang has never been elected governor of New York (nor, in fact, has he been elected to any political office, I believe).   Trump never got elected governor of anything.  His presidential run was a classic black swan event.

[Valmy]

Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor of a state without having been elected to any political office. But he and Trump were world famous celebrities. I don't think just being Rudy's kid quite has that same star power.

But we will see I guess.

[The Brain]

He can call on every landscaper on the East Coast.

[grumbler]

Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor of a state without having been elected to any political office. But he and Trump were world famous celebrities. I don't think just being Rudy's kid quite has that same star power.

But we will see I guess.

Schwarzenegger is an argument against my assumption, I agree.  Interestingly, he never faced a primary.  He was elected in a nonpartisan special election to his first term, and was unopposed by his party in the second.

[The Minsky Moment]

I have no sense who is likely to win a GOP primary in NY.  Baby Rudy has name recognition.  The leading candidate is a US Rep from Long Island with a bunch of county chair endorsements all over the state.  They are both in the Trumpy whacko wing of the party.

[Barrister]

It's not like the state of New York has never elected the son of a famous politician to the position in the past...


(man - looking up the wiki page of Andrew Cuomo the guy has worked in politics from absolutely day one after graduating from law school (Albany).  He went immediately to working for his father's campaign, to being a NY asst AG, to "briefly" working for a private firm before starting a non-profit, to then working for Mayor Dinkins, then getting an appointment with Clinton...)

[garbon]

It's not like the state of New York has never elected the son of a famous politician to the position in the past...


(man - looking up the wiki page of Andrew Cuomo the guy has worked in politics from absolutely day one after graduating from law school (Albany).  He went immediately to working for his father's campaign, to being a NY asst AG, to "briefly" working for a private firm before starting a non-profit, to then working for Mayor Dinkins, then getting an appointment with Clinton...)

Did anyone argue that it hadn't?

[Valmy]

It's not like the state of New York has never elected the son of a famous politician to the position in the past...


(man - looking up the wiki page of Andrew Cuomo the guy has worked in politics from absolutely day one after graduating from law school (Albany).  He went immediately to working for his father's campaign, to being a NY asst AG, to "briefly" working for a private firm before starting a non-profit, to then working for Mayor Dinkins, then getting an appointment with Clinton...)

I mean no time to waste man. Joe Biden worked as a lawyer for about a year before running for elected office.

[grumbler]

It's not like the state of New York has never elected the son of a famous politician to the position in the past...

Andrew Cuomo was elected to statewide office (Attorney General) before he successfully ran for governor.

(man - looking up the wiki page of Andrew Cuomo the guy has worked in politics from absolutely day one after graduating from law school (Albany).  He went immediately to working for his father's campaign, to being a NY asst AG, to "briefly" working for a private firm before starting a non-profit, to then working for Mayor Dinkins, then getting an appointment with Clinton...)

You left out the fact that Cuomo was crushed in the primary when he ran for governor in 2002, without ever having held an elected office (just as I am predicting for Giuliani).

[Barrister]

You left out the fact that Cuomo was crushed in the primary when he ran for governor in 2002, without ever having held an elected office (just as I am predicting for Giuliani).

You think he'll get crushed in the primary?

I think he'd get crushed in the general, but with the way Trump has such a pull over GOP voters, who knows how he'll do in a primary.

[Valmy]

Well Minsky already said his opponent is also very Trumpy.

[Barrister]

Well Minsky already said his opponent is also very Trumpy.

But policies don't matter - only proximity to the Orange Man.

[grumbler]

You left out the fact that Cuomo was crushed in the primary when he ran for governor in 2002, without ever having held an elected office (just as I am predicting for Giuliani).

You think he'll get crushed in the primary?

I think he'd get crushed in the general, but with the way Trump has such a pull over GOP voters, who knows how he'll do in a primary.

Lee Zeldin is a combat veteran, four-term congressman, and a Trump supporter who voted against certifying the 2020 election.  In addition, he has, by NY Republican Party rules, already locked up the nomination (having been endorsed by more than half of the state's county party chairs).   What makes you think Giuliani will even make it to the general election?

[grumbler]

Oh, and Zeldin was one of the leaders of the Trump defense team in the 2020 House impeachment hearings.

[Barrister]

You left out the fact that Cuomo was crushed in the primary when he ran for governor in 2002, without ever having held an elected office (just as I am predicting for Giuliani).

You think he'll get crushed in the primary?

I think he'd get crushed in the general, but with the way Trump has such a pull over GOP voters, who knows how he'll do in a primary.

Lee Zeldin is a combat veteran, four-term congressman, and a Trump supporter who voted against certifying the 2020 election.  In addition, he has, by NY Republican Party rules, already locked up the nomination (having been endorsed by more than half of the state's county party chairs).   What makes you think Giuliani will even make it to the general election?

If you say Zeldin's got the nomination locked up I'll believe you.  I'm not discussing this from a position of strength.

But if GUiliani Jr. were to get Trump's endorsement, and if it were put to a pure primary vote of Empire State Republicans, don't you think he'd stand an excellent shot - no matter how much better qualified the other guy is?