US Election Week 2020

[Josquius]

And this is what tens of millions of people in the US and elsewhere believe in

[Sheilbh]

And this is what tens of millions of people in the US and elsewhere believe in

I think a chunk of them believe the con which is the sort of concerning bit

[Tamas]

I think only a tiny minority of Trump supporters genuinely believe the cheating narrative. A larger percentage of them practice the self-convincing and denial which has allowed them to stick with Trump - they don't believe it but they deliberately don't pause to think about it.

The rest, I suspect, know full well its a silly excuse, but they play along because it is the way to defeat the other tribe, and nothing else matters at this stage.

[Grey Fox]

My TDS was so strong that I expected this to be an actual concerted effort to undermine democracy & keep the Trump administration in power past January.

Instead it's just grifters grifting the head grifter(s). Fucking Conservative.

[Sheilbh]

A thought - could all of this cause Republicans to actually fight back and try to re-take control of their party?

Just thinking with Trump already talking about a 2024 run, if you're a possible Presidential candidate you've probably spent the last four years trying to work with/praise Trump to avoid pissing off his base. Either he'd win or he'd move on and the politics of supporting Trump make sense because it could help your run in 2024/not piss off his base.

If you've got 2024 ambitions and you think you might have to beat Trump to do it, the politics sort of shift and you don't really get any upside from supporting Trump you're just boosting a rival.

No idea if it will lead to anything but I feel like it's a different calculation for, say, Rubio or Cruz or even loyalists like Hawley and Cotton than before this election.

Much as I wish more Republicans had backbone to stand up to Trump there wasn't much benefit for them politically if they did it (again I think McConnell on a purely political level possibly played this all very well). But now there are political benefits to confronting Trump because chances are a 2024 nomination is going to go through, not with, him (and he'll pull this stuff if he loses those primaries and create chaos at the convention).

[Syt]

A thought - could all of this cause Republicans to actually fight back and try to re-take control of their party?

[Grey Fox]

No, the primary system makes this impossible.

[Eddie Teach]

I think only a tiny minority of Trump supporters genuinely believe the cheating narrative. A larger percentage of them practice the self-convincing and denial which has allowed them to stick with Trump - they don't believe it but they deliberately don't pause to think about it.

The rest, I suspect, know full well its a silly excuse, but they play along because it is the way to defeat the other tribe, and nothing else matters at this stage.

I'm a bit confused. Do Trump supporters stop being Trump supporters if they accept the results or is that just something that has never happened?

[alfred russel]

A thought - could all of this cause Republicans to actually fight back and try to re-take control of their party?

What does this mean? The president is generally the de facto leader of the party, but with Trump toppled it is presumably Mitch McConnell. Trump is just an out of work president like George W. Bush, only he didn't win re-election.

I think that the 2020 elections are going to be seen as a massive triumph for Trumpism, however. Cruz and Rubio were Lyin' Ted and 'Lil Marco to Trump 4 years ago, but now are dedicated Trumpists. The republicans went into the 2020 elections as the incumbent party with massive unemployment, a terrible economy, unrest in major cities, a president that had just been impeached, and 2020 generally accepted as an annus horribilis. They came out of the elections with a senate majority and a bunch more house seats (maybe even a majority after 2022 redistricting), 27 governors, and more state legislatures. They also appear to have made real inroads with minorities for the first time since civil rights. Romneyism is dead.

[Caliga]

I think that the 2020 elections are going to be seen as a massive triumph for Trumpism, however.

How can that be when Trump lost?

For sure the Republicans did really well overall, though... better than they should have by all conventional parameters, as you stated.

[Sheilbh]

What does this mean? The president is generally the de facto leader of the party, but with Trump toppled it is presumably Mitch McConnell. Trump is just an out of work president like George W. Bush, only he didn't win re-election.

W couldn't run again and H.W. or Carter didn't leave office with a fairly big, loyal fanbase. So to win the nomination in 2024 they might have to beat Trump. Because he's lost this election and there's a reasonable chance he'll run again. If he won again then the smart choice is to stay loyal to Trump and try to pick up a big chunk of his vote.

But if he's the competition again you've got two choices: either you try and compete with him for his vote or you try and win the rest.

It seems unlikely to me that anyone will be able to compete with Trump for his core vote (and he'll be the favourite for 2024 nomination all the way through until 2023 because of recognition, loyalty etc etc). So that leaves you winning the rest and the way to do that is going to be to draw contrast between yourself and Trump (and the others).

I think that the 2020 elections are going to be seen as a massive triumph for Trumpism, however. Cruz and Rubio were Lyin' Ted and 'Lil Marco to Trump 4 years ago, but now are dedicated Trumpists. The republicans went into the 2020 elections as the incumbent party with massive unemployment, a terrible economy, unrest in major cities, a president that had just been impeached, and 2020 generally accepted as an annus horribilis. They came out of the elections with a senate majority and a bunch more house seats (maybe even a majority after 2022 redistricting), 27 governors, and more state legislatures. They also appear to have made real inroads with minorities for the first time since civil rights. Romneyism is dead.

I don't disagree with any of that except I don't think Rubio and Cruz are dedicated Trumpists; I think they made a calculation that it was in their interests to act like dedicated Trumpists. They were probably correct - again, what's the upside of opposing him when he's in office? And, if he's re-elected you can try and pick up his base in 2024.

My thought is that the calculation changes if you might have to beat Trump in 2024 to win. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see this start to play out in 2022 - I think you could see the Trump wing of the party primarying RINOs who weren't loyal/vocal enough now and pushback against that.

For sure the Republicans did really well overall, though... better than they should have by all conventional parameters, as you stated.

Maybe - I'd put a huge caveat around the economy because this isn't the 2008 crash. I don't think the raw numbers matter because people live in the world and they're not stupid. They know there's a pandemic, they know why the economy's in trouble and they think it will recover once the pandemic's over.

It's not that there are fundamental issues which are being unwound. And the consequence of the government support (plus fewer opportunities to spend money) is that for a significant number of people they actually have more savings now than they did at the start of the pandemic. I'd be astonished if voters blamed Trump/GOP for the economy and I imagine, probably, generally give them credit because of the general trend of the last four years, despite the impact of the pandemic.

[alfred russel]

I don't disagree with any of that except I don't think Rubio and Cruz are dedicated Trumpists; I think they made a calculation that it was in their interests to act like dedicated Trumpists. They were probably correct - again, what's the upside of opposing him when he's in office?

Rubio and Cruz are probably career politicians focused on nothing other than keeping their jobs, getting on TV, and getting into the white house.

My point really is that I doubt either of them is going back to the days of running on a 5% reduction in the top marginal individual tax rate, lower corporate taxes, and the conventional foreign policy / defense that was the republican standard before 2016. They are going to be populists in 2024, and if Trump runs they will try to beat Trump with their own brand of Trumpism. The pitch will probably be that Trump is an actual anchor to the Trumpist movement America wants.

[Sheilbh]

My point really is that I doubt either of them is going back to the days of running on a 5% reduction in the top marginal individual tax rate, lower corporate taxes, and the conventional foreign policy / defense that was the republican standard before 2016. They are going to be populists in 2024, and if Trump runs they will try to beat Trump with their own brand of Trumpism. The pitch will probably be that Trump is an actual anchor to the Trumpist movement America wants.

Yeah I mean I think Romney represented the highpoint of a Republican party where it was always 1986. It's been out of date for a long time and it's, rightly, dead now.

They will definitely need their own brand of Trumpism because you can't out-Trump Trump, and people aren't going to vote for the knock-off when they can go for the original. But they will need to draw contrasts with Trump, they will need divisions with him, proper attack lines (because he'll be doing all of that to them) if they want to have a chance to win.

[DGuller]

I still think that a lot in GOP are waiting for a moment of weakness to denounce Trump and create a Clean Wehrmacht myth.  I think they're just waiting for Trump to be out of power, and have his popularity eroded.  I imagine that a lot of his supporters may stop debasing themselves once there is nothing to get out of that bargain.

[Valmy]

Well the nice thing about Trumpism for them is it allows them to discard conservative constitutional and fiscal policies which were always a big annoyance. They can go all in on culture war and cultural conservatism and identity politics which is a much easier seller.

So unless they were much more committed to those old conservative principles than I think they were, I don't see any need to discard Trumpism. Now they even get a stabbed in the back myth to help energize the identity politics and culture war base.