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US Election Week 2020

Started by Barrister, November 03, 2020, 01:17:04 PM

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alfred russel

#2040
November 11, 2020, 06:40:16 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on November 11, 2020, 06:26:01 PM
QuoteThat is a 35 point swing in a single district. I doubt that was projected by a computer model in 2010--I'm sure the district mappers assumed this would be a safe republican district through 2020. The further out you get from redistricting the less effective a gerrymander is going to be. The 35 point swing to the democrats in this district is offset by swings to republicans in other districts--I don't see why a 2020 redistricting can't account for these changes and move georgia back to a 9-5 congressional delegation.

Mainly because the more Democrats there are the harder it is to do this, it's not actually that complicated.

You don't need a computer program to figure out how to flip #6 back.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%27s_congressional_districts

It is straightforward. 4, 5, and 13 are all safe D. Just cut off the southern more democratic parts of 6 and add to those. 6 can take R territory from 7 and 11, which can make up their territory with the most R territory in the state (9 and 14).

Congressmen are politically connected and don't want their districts radically overhauled (especially to endanger their own reelection), but if you wanted to get really radical I don't see why you couldn't draw a map that was 10 R and 4 D.

Now that the USSC has given a green light to basically do whatever the states want, they may go for it.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

11B4V

#2041
November 11, 2020, 06:42:16 PM
 
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2020, 06:34:57 PM
Another good thing about Biden winning is that the Bernie Bros can't say "I told you so".

:yes:
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

Habbaku

#2042
November 11, 2020, 08:30:16 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2020, 06:34:57 PM
Another good thing about Biden winning is that the Bernie Bros can't say "I told you so".

It is pretty sweet justice to see Biden win, no matter how closely, vs. the assured loss of Bernie in the same environment.

We came this close to giving Trump a Corbyn to slap around.
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.
-J. R. R. Tolkien

FunkMonk

#2043
November 11, 2020, 10:43:01 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2020, 06:34:15 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 11, 2020, 06:24:37 PM
A good size block in AZ broke mas o menos even; Trump needs 68.3% of 35,599 remaining, has been breaking 56% Trump.


Biden might actually be able to win even if it is a small margin.

Yeah it looks like it'll be called for Biden soon. It's over.

From Goldwater to Biden. Amazing.
Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.

Eddie Teach

#2044
November 11, 2020, 10:59:01 PM
I think Goldwater would have voted for Biden.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

katmai

#2045
November 11, 2020, 11:33:34 PM
Arizona
Quote11,635 vote lead for Biden
22,456 ballots left
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son

Razgovory

#2046
November 12, 2020, 01:24:05 AM
It looks like Biden will just barely win.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

11B4V

#2047
November 12, 2020, 01:46:41 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 12, 2020, 01:24:05 AM
It looks like Biden will just barely win.

A win is a win.
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

DGuller

#2048
November 12, 2020, 01:53:52 AM
Better a narrow win than a decisive loss.  A decisive win is better than either, though.

Valmy

#2049
November 12, 2020, 02:36:53 AM Last Edit: November 12, 2020, 02:38:26 AM by Valmy
Quote from: Razgovory on November 12, 2020, 01:24:05 AM
It looks like Biden will just barely win.

In Arizona.

He did about as well as I predicted:



I missed on Florida, Georgia, and Arizona (probably...).

I was only off by two EVs.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Syt

#2050
November 12, 2020, 02:48:20 AM


Is this true? :unsure:
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Eddie Teach

#2051
November 12, 2020, 03:08:02 AM
Did Iowa's turnout go down?  :hmm:
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Syt

#2052
November 12, 2020, 03:10:34 AM
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Sheilbh

#2053
November 12, 2020, 04:49:56 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 11, 2020, 08:30:16 PM
We came this close to giving Trump a Corbyn to slap around.
Bernie is nothing like Corbyn in reality. They just seem like they should be similar.

I actually think Bernie is possibly the only other of the Dem candidates who could have won - looking at the election. I can see him having a chance at winning back the blue wall states - which I just can't see for Pete, Warren etc.
Let's bomb Russia!

celedhring

#2054
November 12, 2020, 05:29:51 AM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 12, 2020, 04:49:56 AM
Quote from: Habbaku on November 11, 2020, 08:30:16 PM
We came this close to giving Trump a Corbyn to slap around.
Bernie is nothing like Corbyn in reality. They just seem like they should be similar.

I actually think Bernie is possibly the only other of the Dem candidates who could have won - looking at the election. I can see him having a chance at winning back the blue wall states - which I just can't see for Pete, Warren etc.

Yeah, he'd have a good chance of winning back the rust belt+PA, possibly make OH a bit more competitive. Does he keep all of NM/NV/CO, though?
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