US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Sheilbh]

Okay - so my map/guess


Edit: Incidentally - the shading means nothing. I clicked until I got to red/blue per state.

[The Larch]

Dems getting Georgia but not getting Florida would be quite weird...

[Sheilbh]

Dems getting Georgia but not getting Florida would be quite weird...

Agreed. And I know that rationally that probably won't happen.

But, to use an internet meme, at the back of my head I just have a very deep prejudice that fundamentally Florida is a messy bitch who lives for the drama.

Edit: Because of this I almost think Biden's more likely to win Texas than Florida

[Legbiter]

Agreed. And I know that rationally that probably won't happen.

But, to use an internet meme, at the back of my head I just have a very deep prejudice that fundamentally Florida is a messy bitch who lives for the drama.

Florida usually goes to the winner. 

[Caliga]

Fivethirtyeight just updated their prediction to Biden "clearly favored" to win from "favored".  They've had the Dems as "favored" to win the Senate and "clearly favored" to retain the House for quite some time.

[Caliga]

Also, according to their models, for Trump to win he MUST win all of the below swing states:

Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Iowa.

[Maladict]

Also, according to their models, for Trump to win he MUST win all of the below swing states:

Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Iowa.

He has a reasonable shot at any of them. All of them is another story.

And that's still not enough, AZ + NE2 or ME2 gets Biden to 270.

[Razgovory]

Fivethirtyeight just updated their prediction to Biden "clearly favored" to win from "favored".  They've had the Dems as "favored" to win the Senate and "clearly favored" to retain the House for quite some time.

What does that mean?

[Caliga]

It means pretty much what it says.  I don't know all the variables they are looking at and I don't think they make it public.  I just thought people who follow that website might be interested to know it was updated when I checked it.

[Razgovory]

It means pretty much what it says.  I don't know all the variables they are looking at and I don't think they make it public.  I just thought people who follow that website might be interested to know it was updated when I checked it.

How does "clearly favored" differ from "favored"?

[Maladict]

What's interesting in the 538 model is that if you pick PA to go Trump without changing anything else, the chance of a Trump win goes from 10/100 to 64/100. 

[Caliga]

How does "clearly favored" differ from "favored"?

It looks like they updated that based on their modeling that shows Biden now has a 90% chance of winning.

[DGuller]

What's interesting in the 538 model is that if you pick PA to go Trump without changing anything else, the chance of a Trump win goes from 10/100 to 64/100. 

As I mentioned earlier, I think the correlation assumptions might be a bit too strong here.  If PA goes Trump because Republicans are successful with their funny business, that wouldn't indicate much for the other states.  The correlations would make sense if PA goes Trump because the polls missed some dynamic systemically.

[alfred russel]

Dems getting Georgia but not getting Florida would be quite weird...

Agreed. And I know that rationally that probably won't happen.

But, to use an internet meme, at the back of my head I just have a very deep prejudice that fundamentally Florida is a messy bitch who lives for the drama.

It isn't crazy--post Reconstruction, Georgia didn't elect a republican governor until 2003. Florida started much earlier than that.  Jimmy Carter came from rural georgia and there is a brand of democratic politics that still has a legacy in the southern rural areas of Georgia--and half the state is a massive and rapidly growing heavily democratic metropolis. Both states have republican governors who won their last elections against black challengers, but both won by only the slimmest of margins.

[alfred russel]

It means pretty much what it says.  I don't know all the variables they are looking at and I don't think they make it public.  I just thought people who follow that website might be interested to know it was updated when I checked it.

I suspect it is algorithmic. They just reduced Trump's chances from 10% to 9%. My guess is that going below 10% was a triger.