US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Monoriu]

Without a national ID system, it is very difficult to catch voter fraud. 

I mean we have many ID systems and we don't run elections on a national level. Why must it be national?

Because people move around.  Different systems increase chances of errors, duplication, fraud, etc. 

[DGuller]

Without a national ID system, it is very difficult to catch voter fraud. 

I mean we have many ID systems and we don't run elections on a national level. Why must it be national?

Why shouldn't it be?  What problem are we solving by having such a basic thing as ID be such a haphazardly decentralized endeavor?  Would anyone in 2020 come up with such a system if they had to start from clean sheet?

[Valmy]

Why shouldn't it be?  What problem are we solving by having such a basic thing as ID be such a haphazardly decentralized endeavor?  Would anyone in 2020 come up with such a system if they had to start from clean sheet?

I mean we do have one, the Social Security Number despite it being really horrible for that purpose since it was not designed to be a national ID...even though that is what it is used for.

In the 18th century each state already had its way of deciding things from its time as a colony so we didn't feel the need to centralize something like elections. And like so many things whatever was decided in the 18th century just kind of stayed that way.

And, of course, now we are in an era where the government can track your every move and read your email and listen to your phone calls but making a national ID card would be tyranny. Paranoia of the central government and what it is doing abounds. This probably would have been much easier to do in the 1950s.

[jimmy olsen]

[crazy canuck]

Without a national ID system, it is very difficult to catch voter fraud. 

I mean we have many ID systems and we don't run elections on a national level. Why must it be national?

Why shouldn't it be?  What problem are we solving by having such a basic thing as ID be such a haphazardly decentralized endeavor?  Would anyone in 2020 come up with such a system if they had to start from clean sheet?

Not sure why anyone would willingly create another layer of identification bureaucracy.

[Valmy]

Looking at all the new polling this month it looks like nothing really substantially changed after the conventions. I think everybody made up their minds long ago and we could have run this election in April and saved billions.

We'll see if this trend continues after the "debate" later this month.

[Malthus]

Looking at all the new polling this month it looks like nothing really substantially changed after the conventions. I think everybody made up their minds long ago and we could have run this election in April and saved billions.

We'll see if this trend continues after the "debate" later this month.

"Debate" in scare quotes is right. 😄

I mean, the Republicans officially decided not to have a platform. There is literally nothing to debate, even if Trump was temperamentally and intellectually capable of debating.

[Habbaku]

Trump has already stated he's ignoring his advisors and won't prep for the debates in a traditional manner. It's gonna be hilarious, but I'm not sure who it's going to convince. Biden literally just has to sound like he can string a sentence together.

[jimmy olsen]

Looking at all the new polling this month it looks like nothing really substantially changed after the conventions. I think everybody made up their minds long ago and we could have run this election in April and saved billions.

We'll see if this trend continues after the "debate" later this month.

Biden +7.5%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[HisMajestyBOB]

I'm going super-optimistic: 400+ EVs baby! 

[Valmy]

That's probably the ceiling there.

[FunkMonk]

According to 538's forecast, the probability of a Biden blowout victory is greater than a Trump win.

[Barrister]

According to 538's forecast, the probability of a Biden blowout victory is greater than a Trump win.

So it is.

Odds of Trump win - 25%
Odds of Biden Landslide (winning popular vote by 10% or more) - 30%

[Valmy]

25% is low but its not zero...just saying.

[celedhring]

Unless Biden collapses in the debates, 7-8% national poll advantage seems really hard to claw back from, even if Trump has an EC advantage.

Still sweating it after 2016, though...