US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Barrister]

The map doesn't suck, his fantasy scenario below it is what does

It sucks but that could also happen.  I haven't surveyed the compositions of the state legislatures and Sec States of all the close states but it is easy to imagine contested recounts dragging on 2000 Florida style but even worse given that Trump will be even more bold than Bush and Biden will not graciously concede like Gore.  That scenario does point to the election ultimately being determined by Congress deciding which contested slates of Electors to accept.  In any case a tied or even a close EV total is likely to end up in a shitshow that makes 2000 looks like spilled water in comparison.

It still gives me heartburn to think just what a pivotal moment the 2000 election turned out to be.  So many things could've gone in a completely different direction had Al Gore been the president during 9/11, and I think a lot of America's problems can be traced back to PTSD induced by 9/11.

I dunno man - I think the pivot point was invading Iraq (which I don't think a President Gore would have done), but everything else done in response to 9/11 would probably have been exactly the same - invading Afghanistan, Patriot Act, DHS - all was a broad bipartisan consensus.

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump may be delusional in certain respects but he pays very close attention to polls, he knows he is the underdog.  He made a very clear decision not to follow a base broadening strategy but to mobilize and GOTY his narrow base and suppress the opposition.  He is following a deliberate plan of going for another minority vote win.  You can sure his campaign is developing a post-election day strategy

[Tonitrus]

I think it is safe to say that they've laid the groundwork such that, even if Trump gets blown out of the water in the EC tally, he'll still throw up the "vote by mail fraud" chaff into the air.

It's pretty clear that scorched earth is not off the table, but the main course.

[FunkMonk]

Trump may be delusional in certain respects but he pays very close attention to polls, he knows he is the underdog.  He made a very clear decision not to follow a base broadening strategy but to mobilize and GOTY his narrow base and suppress the opposition.  He is following a deliberate plan of going for another minority vote win.  You can sure his campaign is developing a post-election day strategy

The lawyers we have are massive. Huge, big like you would never believe! You've never seen lawyers this big, and so many at the same time!!

[Razgovory]

If we're going to define "realistic" as "anything that could conceivably happen, no matter how unlikely" then what's the point?

According to Carl Bernstein a scenario where the the election is decided by the House is being seriously looked at by the White House.  Not only is this a possible outcome it is an outcome actively planned by one of the candidates.

[grumbler]

When deciding which electors to accept, does it go to a straight-up vote (which Dems should have the majority), or is it the rule where each total state delegation gets one vote (Which the GOP should have the majority)?

Normal voting rules apply.  The contingent election process (vote by state delegations) is only applicable if there is a contingent election.  I am not at ll sure that the Republicans would win a contingent election.  If the election goes by current polling, I think the contingent election would be a tie.

[The Minsky Moment]

The post election day procedures for determining electors in each state are potential minefields in the event of a close vote, and with the toxic cocktail of Trump + COVID-19, perhaps even if the vote is not that close. E.g. one can expect that Trump will mobilize his media and social media fraud screamers if there are significant "blue shifts" from mail-in voting and put pressure on his allies in state legislatures and executives to intervene.

[Oexmelin]

Trump encourages voters in North Carolina to vote twice.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-encourages-north-carolina-residents-vote-twice-test-mail-system-n1239140?fbclid=IwAR14Xn3G-XFeQXMhjudYBIYIOOjMgwMJbqUNfHe-suOZ7rUJhpi0k_DJOAs

[11B4V]

Trump encourages voters in North Carolina to vote twice.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-encourages-north-carolina-residents-vote-twice-test-mail-system-n1239140?fbclid=IwAR14Xn3G-XFeQXMhjudYBIYIOOjMgwMJbqUNfHe-suOZ7rUJhpi0k_DJOAs

[FunkMonk]

Going to jail for voter fraud to own the libs

[Oexmelin]

You think he'll be indicted?

[Zoupa]

I think he meant the voters attempting this.

Knowing that some of his cultists injected themselves with Chlorox, it's bound to happen.

[Monoriu]

Without a national ID system, it is very difficult to catch voter fraud. 

[viper37]

A look at how some swing States have changed over the elections:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[Valmy]

Without a national ID system, it is very difficult to catch voter fraud. 

I mean we have many ID systems and we don't run elections on a national level. Why must it be national?