Covid-19 lockdown check-in

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I mean it seems all over the place in England, at one hight street mask usage was pretty widespread even outside.

I drove through a small town high street yesterday, people were all packed up on the tight sidewalks with seemingly nobody giving second thought to socially distance. And I know Sheilbh will come and say the virus is afraid to leave when there is open air :p but still.

We've not had as strict mas wearing as other places. But looking at the second wave in Europe (the US looks to be entering its third wave now) it doesn't seem to make a wild difference.

Based on what I hear read and see it appears perfectly reasonable that cases are rising quickly. Why would they not?

Interesting comment fro Deputy Chief Medical Officer - which reflects what Andy Burnham etc was saying. Basically lockdown was lifted at a time when cases were very low in London and the South, but still higher and probably not low enough in the North. As I say, leaders like Andy Burnham were pointing this out at the time

[Tamas]

Yes but despite us starting lockdown weeks/a  month later we just HAD to ease at the same time as the rest of Europe because of avoiding Boris looking bad that week.

[Sheilbh]

Yes but despite us starting lockdown weeks/a  month later we just HAD to ease at the same time as the rest of Europe because of avoiding Boris looking bad that week.

We were in lockdown for longer than most of Europe, by some distance. It was right to ease lockdown in London and the South but wrong to do it in the North. But we are not capable (still) of doing things on an organised regional way in England.

[Tamas]

Were we though? There was a bloody street party here on VE day.

[Sheilbh]

Were we though? There was a bloody street party here on VE day.

Which we all predicted might cause an uptick in cases and it didn't - same with the various beaches getting crowded (after lockdown). Now I might use this moment to repeat my point about outdoor spaces being so much safer But I won't.

On the other hand I think it's insane that we can now have events at the Albert Hall at 60% capactiy but all the trials and re-opening of stadiums up to 25% capacity have been cancelled

[merithyn]

But looking at the second wave in Europe (the US looks to be entering its third wave now) it doesn't seem to make a wild difference.

Are we, though? I mean, there might have been a dip in July in cases, but in truth, we've pretty much stayed in the same badly handled situation that we've been in for months. See: AR's post.

[Sheilbh]

But looking at the second wave in Europe (the US looks to be entering its third wave now) it doesn't seem to make a wild difference.

Are we, though? I mean, there might have been a dip in July in cases, but in truth, we've pretty much stayed in the same badly handled situation that we've been in for months. See: AR's post.

I get that and I don't mean anything about how the US has handled it. But it feels like the US is in a cycle of cases rise, people change their behaviour in response to cases rising, cases start to fall, people change their behaviour because they feel more comfortable. This is the point that I don't think the anti-lockdown people get - part of it is definitely about government measures, but part of it will be people changing based on how safe or not they feel. That seems especially the case in the US.

If you look at the numbers in the NYT it does look like there's a tick-up at the minute and possibly entering a third wave:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

[merithyn]

My point is that I don't think it's a "third wave" so much as a continuation of the same. To have a wave, we must have had a drop off, which I don't think has happened.

[alfred russel]

I get that and I don't mean anything about how the US has handled it. But it feels like the US is in a cycle of cases rise, people change their behaviour in response to cases rising, cases start to fall, people change their behaviour because they feel more comfortable. This is the point that I don't think the anti-lockdown people get - part of it is definitely about government measures, but part of it will be people changing based on how safe or not they feel. That seems especially the case in the US.

I definitely get that. I don't see why that is bad either--it is a reason government action may be unnecessary.

If you look at the numbers in the NYT it does look like there's a tick-up at the minute and possibly entering a third wave:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

The US is a massive area--state by state it doesn't look like very many areas are going through or entering a third wave. It seems more like those that haven't gone through a second wave are entering their second.

In Georgia there have been about 7k deaths so if you figure 1 person is dying for 200 infected we probably have about 1.5 million cases--or 15% of the population.  That isn't enough to explain why cases aren't going up now that schools have started and life seems to be returning to normal.

On Friday we went to a 270 person wedding--it was outside for Covid reasons. It was on a Friday because there is apparently a crush of people getting married now because of all the covid postponements earlier in the year so Saturday and Sunday weddings are difficult to schedule.

I can't help but think of this article from March criticizing the lax approach in the South: the punchline being if we don't get our act together we will lose the college football season.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/if-the-south-cant-straighten-out-its-coronavirus-response-there-wont-be-a-college-football-season.html

I'm sure that slate.com would opine that the south did not get its act together. And some games have been canceled, and stadiums have "social distanced" seating -- signficantly less than capacity. But the south is playing college football right now while other regions (such as the west coast and midwest) are not--and in Georgia without a mask requirement. What slate.com didn't consider is an option of "just roll with the coronavirus" and resume something more like a normal life.

Through all this it is worth pointing out that your NYT charts have Georgia categorized as "low and staying low" in its covid status so the results don't seem so bad.

[Sheilbh]

I definitely get that. I don't see why that is bad either--it is a reason government action may be unnecessary.

Maybe. I think it probably helps if there's clear, easy to understand government guidance on what is and isn't risky so people can make informed judgements, and businesses can make their premises safer. There may be a need for more government intervention, but I think the priority should be

The US is a massive area--state by state it doesn't look like very many areas are going through or entering a third wave. It seems more like those that haven't gone through a second wave are entering their second.

Agreed - but we've been talking about a second wave in Europe that may be more clear here because there was a more significant case drop in Europe over the summer. So you could be right that this isn't quite a third wave and is just a second wave continuing (arguably you could make the same argument that the second wave was really just the virus hitting areas that weren't initially hit). Though I'm not sure what it adds whether it's all one big wave, a delayed second wave or a third wave. The point is cases fell for a bit, bottomed out so people feel safe and take riskier options, and then cases have started climbing again.

In Georgia there have been about 7k deaths so if you figure 1 person is dying for 200 infected we probably have about 1.5 million cases--or 15% of the population.  That isn't enough to explain why cases aren't going up now that schools have started and life seems to be returning to normal.

On Friday we went to a 270 person wedding--it was outside for Covid reasons. It was on a Friday because there is apparently a crush of people getting married now because of all the covid postponements earlier in the year so Saturday and Sunday weddings are difficult to schedule.

I can't help but think of this article from March criticizing the lax approach in the South: the punchline being if we don't get our act together we will lose the college football season.

Yeah I don't think schools or outdoor events are that unsafe. I find it insane that we are having events in the Royal Albert Hall with almost 60% capacity but can't even have people at socially distanced sporting events (where safe) with a maximum capacity of 25%, which was the government's plan until this second wave. Similarly I don't get the American obsession with masks (especially outdoors). We have numerous examples in the UK of things that were getting a lot of panic as super-spreader events like crowded beaches or VE parties that didn't lead to a second wave.

The big drivers based on track and trace data are hospitality (especially now the weather's turned and everyone's indoors) - in the UK the approach is staff wear masks and you wear a mask if you're not at your table - the workplace and universities. It feels like we probably need to focus on that.

[alfred russel]

One of the dudes at the game was arguing with security about putting on a mask: "if masks really do much then why can't we bring in 80,000 fans?"

Turns out the Florida Gators coach wants to bring in 90,000 for their next game, and the governor won't stop it--but the school administration is.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30101539/florida-gators-coach-dan-mullen-stands-desire-see-90000-fans-saturday-game

[Josquius]

It's amazing how the nirvana fallacy manages to infect people's internal thinking.

[Maladict]

One of the new measures going into effect tomorrow has been leaked. All bars, cafes and restaurants to close for at least two weeks. Here we go again.

[Zoupa]

"If airbags work so well why do we need seatbelts?

If seatbelts and airbags are so awesome why do we need brakes?"

[alfred russel]

"If airbags work so well why do we need seatbelts?

If seatbelts and airbags are so awesome why do we need brakes?"

"Since over a million are killed on roadways every year, we should shut them down."