A Test of Civilizations?

[Tamas]

Yes it is important to compromise, the spice must flow.

[crazy canuck]

Not sure who voted for item 1.  Every country where we  have posters has cases of the virus.

[Sheilbh]

Yes it is important to compromise, the spice must flow.

It's more that I think it's probably worth avoiding pandemic theatre. I think it'd be very easy to go "something must be done, this is something, therefore it must be done" for political benefit with limited actual medical benefit. And I think there's a risk the government will end up doing that.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Isn't it the point in this graphic:


Basically you either let it spread naturally and peak early, because recovery will happen quicker - but with fewer measures like closing down schools, workplaces, cities etc. Or you take more social isoloation measures which delays the peak, which is lower, but you have the infection around for longer.

Those are options - UK policy is delay - but it'll be the medical/science people trying to work out what's the benefit against the social impact and then ministers making decisions. So who know where they'll actually land. I think Johnson has a higher risk appetite - he used to say his political hero was the Mayor in Jaws

I think that graphic may underestimate the benefits of delay. In a year's time we may have a vaccine of some sort. But it does get the main point across, with a lower peak health services and social order will be less stretched and there will be fewer total deaths.

[Admiral Yi]

I think the verdict is in.  Authoritarian, efficient states like China and Singapore are best equipped to respond.  Free, inefficient states like Italy are in the middle.  Authoritarian, fuck-up states like Iran are the worst.

[Sheilbh]

I think the verdict is in.  Authoritarian, efficient states like China and Singapore are best equipped to respond.  Free, inefficient states like Italy are in the middle.  Authoritarian, fuck-up states like Iran are the worst.

It's too soon to tell. Interesting if concerning points in the thread below (by an epidemiologist):
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238152492178976769

[mongers]

I think the verdict is in.  Authoritarian, efficient states like China and Singapore are best equipped to respond.  Free, inefficient states like Italy are in the middle.  Authoritarian, fuck-up states like Iran are the worst.

I very much liked the graph our Shelf posted in the Covid19 thread; I'll go find it.

[Admiral Yi]

I find it somewhat reassuring that all or most of those line are concave.  That means we're not all characters in The Stand.

[Sheilbh]

I find it somewhat reassuring that all or most of those line are concave.  That means we're not all characters in The Stand.

Er that's a data visualisation choice. Explanation here, but basically it makes for comparisons easier:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1237748598051409921

A linear version of the same data (which is a little misleading because it looks like, say, the UK and US are fine:


It was actually updated today

[DGuller]

If the x-axis is linear and the y-axis is logged, then straight line means an exponential growth.  Concave down means less than exponential growth (such as the latter stages of the logistic curve).  Straight line for a long time is bad, that basically means uncontained spread.

[Admiral Yi]

If the x-axis is linear and the y-axis is logged, then straight line means an exponential growth.  Concave down means less than exponential growth (such as the latter stages of the logistic curve).  Straight line for a long time is bad, that basically means uncontained spread.

That's what I thought.  Concave good, we live, hurray, right?

Shelf you ranty motherfucker.

[Sheilbh]

[saskganesh]

I think we are good. I am reassured by the steps to date taken by governments and businesses and by the medical establishment. My only concern is stupid people acting in chaotic and random ways. And that concern is significant.