Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Syt]

So the Austrian lack of vaccination situation is weird.

Last year, when the EU offered to order from all potential vaccines and distribute per population to all member states, countries were free to opt out of certain vaccines and instead order other vaccines on top. Austria opted out of some vaccines and instead wanted to focus on AstraZeneca.

After the first round of vaccine distribution from the EU, all states could sign up to be of the distribution of the remainder - this is what Austria missed out on because, seemingly, no one remembered. Austria missed out on 100,000 doses this way, and AstraZeneca is, as we all know, not able to meet delivery quotas.

So Chancellor Kurz has sent an angry letter to Vienna, blaming the EU, and also the Austrian official who didn't put in the order (who has been fired in the meantime).

Meanwhile in Brussels people are shaking their heads: The mechanism and deadlines weren't secret and every country knew about it. So if Kurz didn't know he's not paying attention to such "small" details, or he's not able to control his cabinet and government, Or, he knew about it, and now tries to shift the blame.

The incident reminds me of last year when countries could apply for EU relief funds. Austria got their application in at the 11th hour and it had so many mistakes that the EU asked them to do it correctly and provide all needed information or else there would be no way to provide all requested monies. This led to a tantrum by finance minister Blümel (who's still under investigation for corruption at this point).

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, my mother has moved from AZ-hesitant to "no way I'm getting that shit". Going by all the data I can see the risk is overblown.

It's also having an effect in and outside of Europe in countries that aren't suspending it. I read that over 10,000 appointments were cancelled today in Romania and similar cancellations in Georgia (where AZ is the only vaccine) - in both of those countries, for very good reasons there are suspicions of their own governments, but people expect Germany, Denmark, Norway, Austria etc to be making sensible decisions and it's reasonable to say if they're not risking it then why should we.

I think the situation in the UK is a little different because we are far enough along that most people I think have trust in the vaccine program and the NHS, so I don't think it'll have much impact here.

The EMA has released another statement noting that thousands of people get blood clots every year in Europe and the number of people developing that after the vaccine doesn't seem to be any higher than you'd expect or for the general public, and they still assess that the benefits outweigh the risks of side-effects, but they're going to look at the data. They mentioned that they'll be sharing information with the MHRA where there's real-world data for about 11 million doses (the MHRA have said the same - that there's no data indicating a higher risk for blood clots). I think the EMA is having a meeting later this week about it.

I've no idea if they maintain their position or suspend it after that meeting - it feels difficult not to suspend it given the number of countries that have and it sort of feels like it might be too late in terms of trust in this vaccine.

[Syt]

Which brings us back to basic freedom, scientific understanding, and risk assessment. If someone had figured out the germ theory of disease back in the 1700s, well before we could really treat anything through vaccines, does that mean everyone should just stay home except for essential activities until the science of treatment and vaccines caught up?

Isn't that basically what they did during major epidemics? During Shakespeare's times, the Globe theater and other places of public assembly were often shut down due to one disease or other ravaging London.

[Sheilbh]

I guess the damage this constant scepticism of AZ does will be much higher than any real damage from side effects will ever be.

Agreed - if it was summer and we were all experiencing very few cases then I think it could be okay. But my biggest fear with the rest of Europe is that the UK variant is going to take off and I think in that context scepticism and suspensions will cost lives.

I've said it before but sitting, locked down, in the UK for the last couple of months feels like I imagine it felt in Italy this time last year - I hope I'm wrong.

[alfred russel]

Which brings us back to basic freedom, scientific understanding, and risk assessment. If someone had figured out the germ theory of disease back in the 1700s, well before we could really treat anything through vaccines, does that mean everyone should just stay home except for essential activities until the science of treatment and vaccines caught up?

Isn't that basically what they did during major epidemics? During Shakespeare's times, the Globe theater and other places of public assembly were often shut down due to one disease or other ravaging London.

Yes, but a disease with the modern risk profile of covid would not have been a major epidemic--it would have been just a part  of the much higher mortality from infectious disease that accompanied ordinary life.

[Tamas]

I have no real insights into the AZ numbers. If there really is a reason for concern then they need to act of course. But it needs to be a) calculated against the risks of more Covid deaths and serious cases and b) the effect this has on overall vaccine acceptance. My impression is that the first risk is way overblown compared to the other risks...

The only possible reason I can think for panickly shutting down the vaccination of millions because 8 cases of possible complications is that they are grateful for the breathing room to better organise things while waiting.

[Sheilbh]

"A Year Like No Other" isn't really supported if you point out that it was better than basically every year in human history prior to the birth of our grandparents.

For what it's A Year Like No Other is a collection of data from ONS covering deaths, property prices, unemployment, trade, consumer sentiment, hospitalisations etc. It's both the impact of covid and lockdown that makes it kind of unique in modern times. And possibly ever - the ILO estimated that at the peak 80% of people were not working - I don't think, globally, we've ever tried to in effect pause the world before.

More importantly it's just a headline title for a retrospective by a government statistics agency so you're maybe reading a little bit too much into it

[Richard Hakluyt]

I have no real insights into the AZ numbers. If there really is a reason for concern then they need to act of course. But it needs to be a) calculated against the risks of more Covid deaths and serious cases and b) the effect this has on overall vaccine acceptance. My impression is that the first risk is way overblown compared to the other risks...

The only possible reason I can think for panickly shutting down the vaccination of millions because 8 cases of possible complications is that they are grateful for the breathing room to better organise things while waiting.

I have suspicions of political arse covering 

[Sheilbh]

I have suspicions of political arse covering 

I think some of it is probably irresponsible media - side effects should not be a story, but have been. In this case 1 in a 1000 (at least in the UK) people get a blood clot every year so that shouldn't necessarily be a story unless there's an indication that it's higher than that, I think the media in some countries have reported that without checking it. It then gets picked up and linked and there's lots after the fact reasoning.

And I think some of it is lack of confidence in the vaccine roll-out. I feel like some countries are so concerned about the risk of anti-vaxx sentiment that they want to not be seen to take any risks at all. My fear is that it won't affect the opinion of hard-care anti-vaxxers and will just increase scepticism and fears in the rest of the public.

This seems particularly an issue for AZ in Europe - there was a poll by YouGov on this a few weeks ago and I don't think these numbers will have got any better:

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is very unfortunate. Looking at those French vaccine acceptance figures I'm not sure where their exit from the epidemic lies.

[Grey Fox]

A Sanofi version?

[Duque de Bragança]

It is very unfortunate. Looking at those French vaccine acceptance figures I'm not sure where their exit from the epidemic lies.

There has been talk about making vaccines compulsory for the healthcare workers such as nurses since many are using the Astra Zeneca imbroglio to be vaccine "hesitant". Doctors are more easingly convinced.
Macron suspended Astra Zeneca inoculations till Tuesday, until the European agency gives its verdict....
I remember when vaccine "hesitancy" was about the RNA vaccines.

However, truth be said, there is still a shortage of vaccines.

[Zanza]

One thing this AZ situation is not is a European Union/Brexit/anti-British issue despite what you can at least read in parts of British press about this.

EU commission and EMA still considers it safe, but national regulators of British-friendly, non-EU countries like Norway or Switzerland or e.g. Thailand have also suspended usage for now, not just EU countries. United States did not even approve yet...

[Jacob]

Paracétamol
Tylenol

Yup, those two are the same drug, Paracetamol is the generic name and Tylenol the brand name.

In North America the generic name for Paracetamol is Acetaminophen. In case you're wondering why you can't find Paracetamol.

[Zanza]

There was going to be a meeting on Monday to discuss possible steps for relaxing the lockdown. With numbers surging up again this has been postponed and there will be no discussions yet for the time after Easter.

Zanza, I suppose you watched Böhmermann yesterday? Good summary of the Ischgl situation last year.

I guess a Piefke criticizing Tyrolean politics might generate some agreement in Vienna, but will have zero impact on Tyrol. But the Austrian Filz looks really bad from here, even considering CDU/CSU...