Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Legbiter]

How is Hungary doing Tamas?

[alfred russel]

The point being--the procedures that are "flattening the curve" won't get us to zero any faster than doing nothing, and may in fact slow the process down.

That's not their objective, and the fact that you think it was means you don't really understand the problem at all.

I don't think that is there objective!

Jesus, you guys are so anxious to tell me I don't know what I'm talking about you put words in my mouth that aren't there.

I went back to the first post I made after the graph that Zoupa posted--and my post above is basically that post ver batim. Grey Fox, if you think Zoupa is now agreeing with me, then why is he still objecting to what I've said?

[Tamas]

How is Hungary doing Tamas?

It doesn't look too bad, but as with any autocracies it is hard to get a proper picture, and decide what is true, what is a lie, or to differentiate secretive valid preparations from incompetence.

For example, a LOT of people were ejected from hospital beds to open them up in preparation, now thousands of beds are empty while cancer patients, stroke victims, etc. go untreated. They have about 15-20 deaths a day, officially, but next to no testing (unless you are a professional athlete as I see, you get tested if you get into hospital).

Also the prime minister has announced there'll be different kind of restrictions from 3rd of May. A few days ago this was said as "we'll peak on 3rd of May and then start easing" -  I guess they realised its a bit too brave to talk like that.

So, was the emptying of hospital beds over-zealous incompetence, or they know the real numbers and got scared? Impossible to tell.

But overall, it could be worse, I think.

[Legbiter]

Eastern Europe in general seems to have done much better, control measures were implemented early, general mask usage, etc.

[Tamas]

Eastern Europe in general seems to have done much better, control measures were implemented early, general mask usage, etc.

Yes it will be interesting to see how/if a second wave will happen there. They sure didn't mess around initially, officially there were barely any cases when they started the lockdown.

[Legbiter]

Yes it will be interesting to see how/if a second wave will happen there. They sure didn't mess around initially, officially there were barely any cases when they started the lockdown.

They should be fine and they might then ease up among themselves as one big green zone.

[Sheilbh]

Just looking at the latest NHS England release on fatalities and it is definitely on the decline (slowly) in England and especially in London which is good news.

But as celed mentioned, the age profile of people who die from this disease is just extraordinary. It's just unbelievably brutal for the elderly

So in England, of those hospitalised aged:
0-19: 9 deaths
20-39: 126 deaths
40-59: 1,388 deaths
60-79: 6,788 deaths
80+: 9,062 deaths

As I say I just really struggle to get my head around how it can be so, comparatively, benign for people in their 30s or 40s and so dangerous for another age group.

The only sort-of heartening thing is that children under 10 just don't seem to get it which in a weird way could actually help open up social isolation for the elderly. The parents have to keep their distance but it may be possible that young grandkids can visit old folk?

[derspiess]

children under 10 just don't seem to get it

I hear ya

[mongers]

Just looking at the latest NHS England release on fatalities and it is definitely on the decline (slowly) in England and especially in London which is good news.

But as celed mentioned, the age profile of people who die from this disease is just extraordinary. It's just unbelievably brutal for the elderly

So in England, of those hospitalised aged:
0-19: 9 deaths
20-39: 126 deaths
40-59: 1,388 deaths
60-79: 6,788 deaths
80+: 9,062 deaths

As I say I just really struggle to get my head around how it can be so, comparatively, benign for people in their 30s or 40s and so dangerous for another age group.

....

Worse when you consider deaths in care homes and in the community could quite possible be 50-100% extra deaths in those two age categories.

[DGuller]

Russia seems to have downshifted to a lower level of stable exponential growth after the last few days.  They also seemed to have figured out how to remove the lag of about a week or so between case growth rate and death growth rate that every other country has in their statistics. 

[Tamas]

Russia seems to have downshifted to a lower level of stable exponential growth after the last few days.  They also seemed to have figured out how to remove the lag of about a week or so between case growth rate and death growth rate that every other country has in their statistics. 

Yeah, no way Russia is doctoring those numbers!

[Grey Fox]

The point being--the procedures that are "flattening the curve" won't get us to zero any faster than doing nothing, and may in fact slow the process down.

That's not their objective, and the fact that you think it was means you don't really understand the problem at all.

I don't think that is there objective!

Jesus, you guys are so anxious to tell me I don't know what I'm talking about you put words in my mouth that aren't there.

I went back to the first post I made after the graph that Zoupa posted--and my post above is basically that post ver batim. Grey Fox, if you think Zoupa is now agreeing with me, then why is he still objecting to what I've said?

Your optic is extremely self centered.

[Syt]

Insane Clown Posse cancel their annual Gather of the Juggalos, making them more responsible than some politicians, and alfred russel.

[Malthus]

They will have to change their name to "Reasonable Clown Posse". 

[Valmy]

They will have to change their name to "Reasonable Clown Posse". 

Like how "Wild" Bill Hickok became "Well Adusted" Bill Hickok and Billy "The Kid" became "Mature" William.