Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Brain]

People in China are being born with Corona now?

Did you get picked on in school?

No.

Do Swedish kids not do that?

Yes.

[Maladict]

Besides obvious concerns around the economy, what's changed fundamentally with the virus that many European countries (e.g. Spain) are talking about phasing out the lock downs from May?

ICU capacity is not overwhelmed anymore, we can cope. It's all about a balance between economy and healthcare capacity, until we get a vaccine.

[celedhring]

My hometown's mayor was caught last night drunk driving (like "can't drive straight" drunk) while breaking lockdown. I would really like to know the backstory to that 

He's quit the post. A fascinating guy, he'd managed to become mayor two terms in a row despite coming in 3rd in both local elections, thanks to his Baelish-like ability to manipulate the opposition.

[Zanza]

Besides obvious concerns around the economy, what's changed fundamentally with the virus that many European countries (e.g. Spain) are talking about phasing out the lock downs from May?

R0 is currently below 1, so no exponential growth anymore. Hospitals can cope with current numbers. Reducing the lockdown is possible as long as the measures do not lead to an R0 over 1 again.

[garbon]

But isn't it down because we are all sheltering in place? And then it'll rise once we are out and about.

[garbon]

So really then expectations are most of us will get this just at some later date?

[Grey Fox]

Yes.

[Sheilbh]

But isn't it down because we are all sheltering in place? And then it'll rise once we are out and about.

I think that's why you need the higher testing capability and contact tracing, either through public health workers or apps. So unless those are in place you will probably just see another wave (and even if they are there may be follow-on waves but they provide a more focused way of controlling them than a society-wide lockdown).

[garbon]

I'm not sure why the public response won't be fuck you, then. If the official line has been stay at home to prevent infection/deaths but that is turning into, well actually resume your lives and at some point when infections are bad enough again we will tell you to go back indoors again to level it off...why would people listen?

I can certainly see that as forced by employers, people will return to work (and students to schools) but why would anyone actually want to start up normal living things like restaurants, bars, travel, non-essential shopping if in all reality things aren't safer on the ground?

It seems like the safest option, bar as Shelibh has mentioned, more testing and contact tracing, would be to continue to be a recluse as one can for the foreseeable future.

[Syt]

I'm somewhat dubious on the school openings on scheduled for May 15th. I understand that children and schools are, counter-intuitively, not major sources of spread; however, in Vienna a large number of school kids use public transport to get to school, so this might make keeping distance from one another much harder during peak times.

[Sheilbh]

I'm not sure why the public response won't be fuck you, then. If the official line has been stay at home to prevent infection/deaths but that is turning into, well actually resume your lives and at some point when infections are bad enough again we will tell you to go back indoors again to level it off...why would people listen?

I can certainly see that as forced by employers, people will return to work (and students to schools) but why would anyone actually want to start up normal living things like restaurants, bars, travel, non-essential shopping if in all reality things aren't safer on the ground?

It seems like the safest option, bar as Shelibh has mentioned, more testing and contact tracing, would be to continue to be a recluse as one can for the foreseeable future.

I think I am an exception possibly because I've had an extra month of social distancing - but I am desperate to hit bars, restaurants, travel, non-essential shops. But I think you're right, I think it'll take a while for those to really pick up again.

But I think we need more than just slowly lifting the restriction or we'll be back in our flats in a couple of months. Everywhere there seems to be a focus on what bits of our lives can resume but I'd be interested to know what, if anything, countries are doing on testing and contact tracing etc. I know there are lots of apps being developed in Europe but I don't know if any are actually launching, whether they're voluntary or whether the state is requiring that you get it etc.

I'm somewhat dubious on the school openings on scheduled for May 15th. I understand that children and schools are, counter-intuitively, not major sources of spread; however, in Vienna a large number of school kids use public transport to get to school, so this might make keeping distance from one another much harder during peak times.

Is it all schools? I feel like most countries are focusing on primary schools so far?

[garbon]

I'm not sure why the public response won't be fuck you, then. If the official line has been stay at home to prevent infection/deaths but that is turning into, well actually resume your lives and at some point when infections are bad enough again we will tell you to go back indoors again to level it off...why would people listen?

I can certainly see that as forced by employers, people will return to work (and students to schools) but why would anyone actually want to start up normal living things like restaurants, bars, travel, non-essential shopping if in all reality things aren't safer on the ground?

It seems like the safest option, bar as Shelibh has mentioned, more testing and contact tracing, would be to continue to be a recluse as one can for the foreseeable future.

I think I am an exception possibly because I've had an extra month of social distancing - but I am desperate to hit bars, restaurants, travel, non-essential shops. But I think you're right, I think it'll take a while for those to really pick up again.

I think you are right that there will be a fair amount of people eager to get back into the world (witness those who didn't want to social distance in past month) but I think we are joking ourselves if starting up the economy within the next month is really going to be enough to save small shops not focused on essential items.

I can't imagine wanting to browse for books at Foyle's or picking up some jam at Fortnum's if I know that I'm at risk of infection / infecting others. I don't really fancy a trip to the ICU even if there is reasonable space for me and enough PPE.

[Sheilbh]

I think you are right that there will be a fair amount of people eager to get back into the world (witness those who didn't want to social distance in past month) but I think we are joking ourselves if starting up the economy within the next month is really going to be enough to save small shops not focused on essential items.

Yeah I think that's fair and I think those businesses need more support. Because they are viable businesses that have been hit by an almost uninsurable risk.

I started buying stuff from the smaller shops that were doing deliveries because they are generally better at doing deliveries including the non-essential stuff (like a same-day delivery of wine yesterday  ), but it's actually quite touching the sort of personal mesages you get from the businesses so need to keep backing them once we're back to normal too.

I can't imagine wanting to browse for books at Foyle's or picking up some jam at Fortnum's if I know that I'm at risk of infection / infecting others. I don't really fancy a trip to the ICU even if there is reasonable space for me and enough PPE.

Yeah. Especially as there's a 50/50 chance once you're in ICU. It's the thing I find most unsettling/scary about this is there's still no treatment. So you go into ICU and you'll be getting aggressive organ support you might need but there's no treatment or cure in there. It's still just trying to boost the chances of your immune system having time to beat it, without going so crazy it accidentally kills you.

[Agelastus]

So, I've had the same neighbour for 30 years.

Not a friend but we have always got on with him and his family.

His father died at the weekend from Covid-19. In hospital on Thursday, dead a couple of days later.

[Maladict]

Interesting study on age relating to infections. This, among other studies, was used to determine kids should be given more freedom to play and go to school. Kids don't seem to transmit the virus much at all.