Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - my understanding is that there will still be a daily release on deaths in hospitals (recent releases are carefully phrased as "of those hospitalised"). The ONS will be releasing weekly stats and are trying to capture deaths in the community and, I assume, care homes.

[mongers]

I just read an article about a couple from Quebec who sold everything, and got on a plane to Old Crow, Yukon in order to escape Coronavirus.  Old Crow is an isolated, fly-in only community of 250 people north of the arctic circle.  There is of course no doctors in Old Crow, and certainly no ventilators.

They were met by community members, isolated overnight, and put on the next plane out in the morning.

So yes, people would flock to clear zones given the chance.

Good job, the selfishness of some people is mind-boggling.

Also native communities might have a slightly different immune reaction to the virus, for the worse or better?

[alfred russel]

Supposedly Fauci is projecting 100k-200k dead in the US.

https://apnews.com/64ac08d62c3621f2b888785e02c7f6b1

Assuming that is the range, and all western countries are roughly in line, the political implications will be interesting. The CDC estimates that flu deaths in a bad year are just over 60k.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

On the one hand you will have people arguing that the entire response has been disproportionate, and also people arguing that the government responses saved us from a catastrophe. Though contradictory, I expect Trump would make both arguments and his base would eat it up.

There will be other ways to criticize the government--the response was not as effective as it could have been, and more costly than needed as we weren't prepared. I guess these would be the Democrats' answer.

That was Fauci's best case for the US if everyone obeys social distancing.  That isn't going to happen.  The other estimate of 1.6 to 2 million deaths in the US is more likely.

And don't generalize US results to the rest of the world.  Your nation has become the world leader for infections.

1.6 million to 2 million seems quite high--that is 0.5% of the US population. There is no guarantee that many would die even if every single person in the country was infected--which is implausible.

The US may be the leader in the number of confirmed cases but at this point testing has ramped up. For example, France and the US have about the same number of deaths (2,606 versus 2,608), but the US has significantly more confirmed cases (145,131 versus 40,174). It would seem we are doing a much better job of testing than France (alternatively covid19 patients in the US could be getting superior healthcare, or the patients may be healthier coming into treatment).

In any event, adjusted for per capita numbers, at least right now, Canada should be thankful they have the US as a neighbor versus most countries in Western Europe.

[Sheilbh]

Amazing WFH energy in today's government briefing as Sir Patrick Vallance talked through a powerpoint presentation to an empty room and the TV cameras just stayed focused on him, not the slides

"Can you see my screen?"

[merithyn]

Reports coming out of hospitals that 80% of IC patients are overweight/obese. Doctors are urging people nog to go on crash diets, but not denying the stories.

Given that per the BMI something like 65% of the population are overweight/obese, I'm not sure how this is significant.

[mongers]

There must be a way to measure regional variability within countries, both in terms of infections and the normal degree of connectivity between regions and across the whole country?

China's regional lockdown eventually worked, Italy's may have partially worked, Spain and others look more problematic.

India's handling of a national lock-down start, could well turn out to have been the virus's best friend.

And as NYC is the American hotspot, is it more of a massive threat to the whole USA, than say London might be to the rest of the UK?

[merithyn]

Government says there's enough facemasks that starting Wednesday or Thursday it will become mandatory to wear one in supermarkets. They will be given to customers on entry.

If they're worn in your supermarkets the way they are here, that'll be a joke. I saw two people wearing their masks on their chins the entire time they wandered the store. 

[Fate]

Being slightly overweight isn't a bad thing (actually correlated with lower mortality vs the rail thin grandma) if you're about to be put into an ICU. It means you have more "physiologic reserve." The mortality data isn't segmented by degree of obesity, but it's likely highest in people with BMIs in the severe overweight to morbid range (35-40 and 40+) which unfortunately is still a huge segment of the population

[merithyn]

Dom now has corona virus symptoms.

Wish him well for me, please. And you take care, too. Neither of you are high risk though, no?

[mongers]

Dom now has corona virus symptoms.

Wish him well for me, please. And you take care, too. Neither of you are high risk though, no?

Yes, my best wishes to you both, Gabby.

[mongers]

Being slightly overweight isn't a bad thing (actually correlated with lower mortality vs the rail thin grandma) if you're about to be put into an ICU. It means you have more "physiologic reserve." The mortality data isn't segmented by degree of obesity, but it's likely highest in people with BMIs in the severe overweight to morbid range (35-40 and 40+) which unfortunately is still a huge segment of the population

Thanks for that Fate, interesting.

I really wish I could put on some weight, maybe I should start trying but consuming loads of comfort food?

[Barrister]

1.6 million to 2 million seems quite high--that is 0.5% of the US population. There is no guarantee that many would die even if every single person in the country was infected--which is implausible.

The US may be the leader in the number of confirmed cases but at this point testing has ramped up. For example, France and the US have about the same number of deaths (2,606 versus 2,608), but the US has significantly more confirmed cases (145,131 versus 40,174). It would seem we are doing a much better job of testing than France (alternatively covid19 patients in the US could be getting superior healthcare, or the patients may be healthier coming into treatment).

In any event, adjusted for per capita numbers, at least right now, Canada should be thankful they have the US as a neighbor versus most countries in Western Europe.

Every single person being infected is implausible, but 60-80% of the population is projected to get it.  Combine that with an estimated fatality rate of 1% and there you have your 1.6 to 2 million.

US certainly is ramping up testing efforts.  You also have a much larger population.

Maybe we're lucky to have the US as a neighbour.  Or maybe you're just 2 weeks behind Italy.

[Maximus]

DC is spiking, and we're on lockdown as of 8 PM tonight.

[Sheilbh]

There must be a way to measure regional variability within countries, both in terms of infections and the normal degree of connectivity between regions and across the whole country?

China's regional lockdown eventually worked, Italy's may have partially worked, Spain and others look more problematic.

India's handling of a national lock-down start, could well turn out to have been the virus's best friend.

And as NYC is the American hotspot, is it more of a massive threat to the whole USA, than say London might be to the rest of the UK?

Health Service Journal is tracking mortality in the NHS regions:


The FT is also tracking mortality at a regional or sub-national level:


I've not seen any tracking of regional case numbers.

[garbon]

Dom now has corona virus symptoms.

Wish him well for me, please. And you take care, too. Neither of you are high risk though, no?

Yes, my best wishes to you both, Gabby.

Umm, I don't personally know anyone named Dom (nor would I refer to my husband as my Dom).

That's Dominic Cummings that I meant, the would be Varys of the UK.