Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[celedhring]

Edit: I'm not at conspiracy theory yet - but I have three months of being socially distant and a lot of post-it notes.

I have almost run out of them after 2 weeks and I can't get stationery. Once my supply dries out I will probably go full Jack Torrance.

[Iormlund]

My mask truther tendency is that masks are actually a very effective way of stopping the spread of this disease and the CDC, WHO, BBC, health authorities who were saying: "stop buying masks, you don't need them and they're kind of pointless unless you're a medical professional" were very wrong.

Masks are pretty useful, if nothing else because one will make it much harder for you to infect others.

That's why I can't understand why first world countries aren't rushing to tool factories to make them by the tens of millions. We've got plenty of engineers and technicians twiddling their (our) thumbs at home.

[Syt]

Increases my mask truther tendencies 

What is a mask truther tendency?

My mask truther tendency is that masks are actually a very effective way of stopping the spread of this disease and the CDC, WHO, BBC, health authorities who were saying: "stop buying masks, you don't need them and they're kind of pointless unless you're a medical professional" were very wrong.

Edit: I'm not at conspiracy theory yet - but I have three months of being socially distant and a lot of post-it notes.

[Josquius]

Italys numbers are looking really good, for 10 days now they've been holding fairly steady, the sombrero has flattened.
Hopefully this time the downwards trend isn't a false alarm set to be ruined by the south?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Spain has a shorter time under its belt so early days yet but its showing a far more ideal toblerone shape in terms of daily new cases.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Switzerland too, despite the less believable numbers overall, seems to be steady with a slight downwards trend
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/

Isolation is working.

Closer to home, far more early days in the UK but maybe we've peaked too?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Fingers crossed

[Admiral Yi]

Iowa Public Health Department says we're probably going to peak in 2-3 weeks.

[garbon]

So Prince Charles, who tested positive, is now out of self isolation after 7 days.

His wife, who tested negative, remains in self isolation for the full 14 days period.

What a shining example to our nation this guy is!

Isn't that the advice though? I believe once you have it only isolation for 7 but anyone in your household does 14 in case they catch it when say you both are on day 6.

[celedhring]

Italys numbers are looking really good, for 10 days now they've been holding fairly steady, the sombrero has flattened.
Hopefully this time the downwards trend isn't a false alarm set to be ruined by the south?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Spain has a shorter time under its belt so early days yet but its showing a far more ideal toblerone shape in terms of daily new cases.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Switzerland too, despite the less believable numbers overall, seems to be steady with a slight downwards trend
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerland/

Isolation is working.

Closer to home, far more early days in the UK but maybe we've peaked too?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Fingers crossed

Honestly the # of new infections seems a pointless statistic at this point, it's too dependant on the capability of performing new tests, and we're not coping with it at the moment, nor does Italy.

# of daily dead/admissions into critical care seems more reliable. Both numbers have been stagnant in Spain the past few days *fingers crossed*

[Legbiter]

My mask truther tendency is that masks are actually a very effective way of stopping the spread of this disease and the CDC, WHO, BBC, health authorities who were saying: "stop buying masks, you don't need them and they're kind of pointless unless you're a medical professional" were very wrong.

They are very useful. It's this bizarre and artificial dilemma in some countries where they are compared to a full hazmat suit with it's own independent oxygen supply. The Czech republic mandates now that it's citizens wear one in public. An enormous DIY effort sprung up overnight and they seem fully stocked.

The real reason masks are being downplayed right now is they don't want the public to compete with the health services for them.

[Syt]

For clarification, it seems Austrian supermarket mask will be general nose/mouth masks that don't protect the wearer, but makes it less likely they spread their germs around. It's not FFP1, FFP2 and FFP3 masks.

[Josquius]

Honestly the # of new infections seems a pointless statistic at this point, it's too dependant on the capability of performing new tests, and we're not coping with it at the moment, nor does Italy.

# of daily dead/admissions into critical care seems more reliable. Both numbers have been stagnant in Spain the past few days *fingers crossed*

I read the number of new cases as broadly meaning critical cases, those with moderate cases sitting it out at home just in case or being blissfully unaware. Though I'd see that as a fairly standard percentage of the total with minimal variation day to day.

The death count I really don't like as a reading of how well we're tackling this. It has a delay to it, and fundamentally if everyone with the disease were to suddenly die then it would be over (as utterly horrific and non-desirable as that is). The most important people are not those dying of it but those who are spreading it.
Keeping the critically infected alive is in a way a second tier challenge, with the primary challenge's goal of stopping the spread also helping that.

I could well see a case where life largely goes back to normal as the only infected left are those in hospital, some of whom will sadly keep dying.

[Sheilbh]

Also the UK, like Italy and I imagine elsewhere has so far only been tracking deaths in hospitals. Apparently the ONS are trying to work out a way to record deaths in the community, no idea how that will work.

It'd be helpful if we could see the admissions and ICU data that Neil Ferguson mentioned earlier, which is released in other countries.

Edit: In further evidence that Britain really missed its calling as a grim, 20th century communist dictatorship, corner shops (which are allowed to be open) are complaining that they are being harassed by council officers for stocking Easter Eggs because these are "non-essential".

Residents in one area have been sent threatening letters allegedly by their council accusing them of breaking social distancing rules, and that there is photographic evidence. At the moment this is just a warning but if further breach of the rules is observed then law enforcement will be contacted. The local council has said they have nothing to do with these letters, which suggests it's possibly a particularly militant wing of the neighbourhood watch posing as the local council.

This country

[Iormlund]

Also the UK, like Italy and I imagine elsewhere has so far only been tracking deaths in hospitals. Apparently the ONS are trying to work out a way to record deaths in the community, no idea how that will work.

Don't you guys track daily mortality? I'd imagine every first world country does that.

[Sheilbh]

Also the UK, like Italy and I imagine elsewhere has so far only been tracking deaths in hospitals. Apparently the ONS are trying to work out a way to record deaths in the community, no idea how that will work.

Don't you guys track daily mortality? I'd imagine every first world country does that.

Apparently births and deaths are collected on a weekly basis normally.

[bogh]

Denmark seems to be faring somewhat better than initially predicted. Daily growth in hospital admissions (so new one minus discharges) has been pretty steady for the past week  between 30 and 50 per day, gradually reducing the percentage increase day by day. Overall the curve is looking very linear, with no tendency towards exponential growth so far and we are well under capacity for the time being. ICU and ventilator proportions of the overall admissions number have been increasing slightly, but mostly follow the same trend.

PM will give a press conference later today. It will be interesting to see what they signal. We are officially meant to go back to normal on April 14th...

[Josquius]

Whats going on in Sweden?
They seem to be following the original UK policy....

Edit: In further evidence that Britain really missed its calling as a grim, 20th century communist dictatorship, corner shops (which are allowed to be open) are complaining that they are being harassed by council officers for stocking Easter Eggs because these are "non-essential".

Sounds like a scene from Gilliam's Brazil