Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[DGuller]

His numbers seem ok to me.

It's not the accuracy--it's the breathless manner of delivering something like "That's increases of 56.9% and 46% respectively" with such small pools to begin with, and from a day to day basis.

I'm not seeing anything wrong here. I think the curves for most countries have been stable enough for such calculations to be meaningful even day over day.  The magnitude of these numbers of indeed highly alarming, especially the death numbers, which would be more reliable than infection numbers.

Oh come on.  I'm definitely no actuary, but I know you can't take two data points and draw and kind of conclusion from them.

There is a lot more information than just two points here.  We had a whole bunch of points' worth of information to inform us that these infection and death curves are pretty smooth day-to-day and neither bounce much nor turn on a dime (except for that one day in China where they changed the method).  That means that day-over-day growth is a meaningful and statistically stable number to look at, and it tells you how you're progressing on your curve.

[crazy canuck]

Stats from BC as of end of yesterday

271 confirmed cases as of 3PM March 19, 2020.
Five recovered
Eight deaths
By region:
81 in Fraser Health
12 in Interior Health
22 in Island Health
4 in Northern Health
152 in Vancouver Coastal Health
6,326 individuals tested as of March 13, 2020.

Fraser and Vancouver Coastal are the Greater Vancouver Area

[Maladict]

Why are stores still selling FFP2 masks to consumers? It seems everything is being organized apart from the two most crucial things, masks and ventilators.
We'll run out of both in 2-3 days, well before the surge even starts. We're fucked. 

Someone realized maybe we should actually start testing people. Turns out we'll run out of swabs within a week, and nobody produces them domestically. Talk about being woefully unprepared.

[Grey Fox]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view

French doctors and Stanford people are saying that a anti-malaria drug combos is doing good in trials. 6 day run to eradication of virus.

[Fate]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view

French doctors and Stanford people are saying that a anti-malaria drug combos is doing good in trials. 6 day run to eradication of virus.

That's not a randomized control trial and the sample size is tiny. Take studies like this with a massive grain of salt. After starting the trial they excluded all patients taking the drug who died or ended up in the ICU. What we may be observing is people who don't end up the ICU or die are the ones who clear the virus faster. Also the "control" group were patients who refused to take the drug, not patients unaware they were taking the drug or placebo. There's a huge potential for confounding variables. I'm sure there are larger RCTs underway right now. Hopefully the Chinese publish something soon.

[celedhring]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view

French doctors and Stanford people are saying that a anti-malaria drug combos is doing good in trials. 6 day run to eradication of virus.

That's not a randomized control trial and the sample size is tiny. Take studies like this with a massive grain of salt. After starting the trial they excluded all patients taking the drug who died or ended up in the ICU. What we may be observing is people who don't end up the ICU or die are the ones who clear the virus faster. Also the "control" group were patients who refused to take the drug, not patients unaware they were taking the drug or placebo. There's a huge potential for confounding variables. I'm sure there are larger RCTs underway right now. Hopefully the Chinese publish something soon.

They are running a 3,000 people study with chloroquine at a hospital over here (300 patients, 2,700 close contacts and health professionals for prophylactic use). Study finishes next week, dunno how long it will take to report.

[Sheilbh]

Another weird, wartime moment - MPs who are nurses or doctors returning to the NHS:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/mps-fight-coronavirus-doctors-nurses-nhs?ref=hpsplash

[Iormlund]

... over here ...

My ex learned of a second confirmed case in her circle. Either she's really unlucky or the situation in Barcelona is pretty bad.

[Agelastus]

Well, Sheffield University Hospitals have now gone down from 2 designated visitors for normal visiting hours per day to 1 designated visitor for no more than 1 hour per day.

That is a cut from 24 man hours per day (2x12 hours) to 1 man hour per day.

At the rate they are cutting I think they will ban all visitors by the middle of next week.

Spent some time rushing around to test all the tablets in the house with Skype. With dismal results.

(1) Kindle Fire HDX 8.9, the one I wanted to use - rear camera fine, shame about the front camera sending split picture, lined, distorted garbage (reminded me of broadcast interference on old TVs, actually.)

(2) Kindle Fire HDX 7.0 - see above.

(3) Huawei Mediapad M5 8.4 - continuous weird noises (but would have been my last choice anyway.)

(4) Kindle Fire 7 - works fine; shame it's got the worst front camera of the lot by a country mile.

As I haven't found a solution online to my issues with (1) and (2) I've ordered a Samsung Tab A 2019 10.1 inch plus case from Argos for collection in Sheffield tomorrow; planning to set it up in the hotel before going to see my mother. Just hope the damn thing works OK.

[celedhring]

... over here ...

My ex learned of a second confirmed case in her circle. Either she's really unlucky or the situation in Barcelona is pretty bad.

I'm still not aware of any case among friends or family *touches wood*.

[Zanza]

As it was discussed here before: Germany's top virologist estimates that Germany does 200.000 tests a week. They consider to expand to veterinary labs now.

[Savonarola]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArFkmmGRkZQ

Spring Breakers continue to party like it's 1999.

That's been in the news almost every night here (Daytona and Clearwater have similar crowds as Miami Beach.)  Some places in Florida have tried to restrict beach access by shutting down parking lots; but so far no one has closed beaches (yet). 

[Savonarola]

This disease seems perfectly designed for the young to ignore and spread.

I think that's how it was initially reported; but both Bloomberg and the New York Times just had articles about young people having to go to the hospital for Covid-19.

[Iormlund]

This disease seems perfectly designed for the young to ignore and spread.

I think that's how it was initially reported; but both Bloomberg and the New York Times just had articles about young people having to go to the hospital for Covid-19.

We have hundreds of thousands of infected now. It's not that surprising to see young people sick and in some cases die. It's a lot more surprising to see how kids seem to be almost immune.

[celedhring]

Data from the Catalan Department of Labor: 152,000 people have lost employment *in the past week*. Registered unemployment in Catalonia was 359,000 people total at the end of February.

I expect overall Spanish data to be equally terrifying.