Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[crazy canuck]

BC schools now closed indefinitely

Looks like we are closing everything down and making as much room as possible in our medical system for the wave that is coming.

Utilities have announced payment deferments.  Banks are going to defer mortgage payments, rental evictions will not be permitted.

[Valmy]

And I think the fatigue risk is real. People will follow this relatively scrupulously now because it's new and it's scary. If we do need adaptive suppression I think people will be following it less well, by round 3 or 4.

Yeah I am really worried about what happens if this thing comes back in the Fall. I don't know if people will be willing to do this again.

[Sheilbh]

FT Update - on death figures the most worrying is still the UK and Spain which are on a really bad and concerning line. Also worrying that Italy and Iran don't seem to be flattening yet:


On infections the US line looks a little concerning, Italy and Iran appear to be flattening the curve here a bit at least:

[The Brain]

Sweden is kind of flattening the curve, but we don't do very wide testing AFAIK. I'm not sure if we've changed the way we test or if there is anything meaningful in that flattening.

[celedhring]

Deaths have a pretty large time offset. They will get quite worse before they get better. People that are dying now caught the bug 3 weeks ago or more. That said, right now we have 500-600s UCI cases. I'm not sure of the survival rate for Covid cases requiring UCI care, but doesn't look like our mortality should spike in the very short term.

We were quite unlucky in which the first major outbreaks were discovered at nursing homes (which is probably why they were noticed).

Also, I'd take the reported numbers from China with huge boulders of salt.

[Sheilbh]

In my ongoing rage at the British media who I think are actually inadvertantly adding confusion, there's people on my Twitter - smart people who went to Oxbridge and have well-paid jobs reporting serious issues - moaning the government isn't being clear enough by saying you should stop "non-essential" contact and journeys. Apparently they want a definition of "non-essential", which to me seems kind of common sense.

An actual question I've seen: "I'm having a dinner party, is that non-essential? How am I supposed to know?"

Me: Yes. Dinner parties are non-essential

[The Brain]

I'm having a Donner party. Is that essential?

[Fate]

I'd trust the Chinese numbers way more than the Iran numbers. Signapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan all implemented similar strategies and are more transparent normally, so no reason to believe there's some hidden under-reported outbreak in China killing thousands.

[Zanza]

Did medieval techniques prove effective even in medieval times?

And we don't live in a medieval world with medieval travel. As Patrick Vallance pointed out today there's nowhere yet - China will be first - where we've seen what happens after these measures are lifted and society bounces back.

We don't really have examples, yet, of what happens when there's a cross-region relaxation of these measures and we still don't know about the asymptomatic cases who are infecting people but don't have a fever. So a fever is easy to screen in an airport, but surely unless we get the testing down to almost instantaneous then we'll either need one or two day quarantine periods while they confirm if someone has it (asymptomatically) or a risk of infection.

And I think the fatigue risk is real. People will follow this relatively scrupulously now because it's new and it's scary. If we do need adaptive suppression I think people will be following it less well, by round 3 or 4.

Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China and South Korea, possibly Japan all look very successful. Their governments and societies had experience, equipment, processes, organizations and societal discipline from SARS, MERS etc, which our Western societies and governments lack. They seem capable of lifting restrictions and still fight the virus. I think we are capable of learning that in the next few weeks as well.

[crazy canuck]

Joint statement by American conservatives Stephen Moore, Art Laffer and Steve Forbes: "Don't expand welfare and other income redistribution benefits like paid leave and unemployment benefits that will inhibit growth and discourage work"

Soon as you stop redistributing wealth to the big companies and banks that discourage competence, sure.

Granted they probably agree with that also.

I hate the argument that starvation and homelessness are the only reasons the peons would ever work. It is not a good look really. Maybe if people had options we wouldn't need things like extensive government regulations and minimum wages because businesses would actually have to attract workers instead of using their fear of destitution to exploit them? Like a free market solution to big government? Nah best to keep the current system.

Universal Basic Income, it was good enough Milton Friedman it should be good enough for these clowns.

I am very happy to be living in a country with strong governmental social programs including medical care.  I am very happy that our country will be creating aid which will go directly to workers.  My hope for your country as you rebuild from this transformative event is that your country rejects the neocon fallacies and creates good universal systems which help all your citizens.  At least one good thing will have resulted.

[fromtia]

I went to the grocery store last night, to discover it was closing early and substantially empty of essentials. As I have been stocking up on canned beans, rice, peanut butter for a few weeks now, I'm in good shape. Returned today with son of fromtia, store was empty of some items again, but we got more beans, cat food, milk, bread, sugar and so forth. Really drawing down my usual grocery list of delicious fresh fruits and vegeatble to a more utilitarian, cheaper and less perishable list.

Work has been confounding, Iv'e had a few days off and things have moved fast, been texting with my colleagues most days. At this point we would all rather just close and hunker down as best we can, as opposed to be compelled to work for about 10 to 30% of what we usually make in gratuities. Or report for our shift and be sent home. Our managers/owner seem determined to stay open though. De Santis, FL Gov (R) came out with a mandatory shut down for bars and nightclubs for 30 days a few hours ago. Mayor of Jacksonville Lenny Curry (R) has forbidden gatherings larger than 50. It takes about 40 staff to open our place, to put that in perspective. But we have apparently closed the bars and intend to keep serving the full menu, which does seem reckless at this point.

This is going to be devastating for the hospitality and restaurant industry, but I fully support the close down and wish they would just get on with it and stop dithering.

[Admiral Yi]

In my ongoing rage at the British media who I think are actually inadvertantly adding confusion, there's people on my Twitter - smart people who went to Oxbridge and have well-paid jobs reporting serious issues - moaning the government isn't being clear enough by saying you should stop "non-essential" contact and journeys. Apparently they want a definition of "non-essential", which to me seems kind of common sense.

An actual question I've seen: "I'm having a dinner party, is that non-essential? How am I supposed to know?"

Me: Yes. Dinner parties are non-essential

Shawn of the Dead was a documentary, ,not a satire.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I hope so. There is a very big question mark over Japan, I understand they are doing very, very low levels of testing.

We'll see - from what I've read this is the other big "missing piece" that will really help shape government responses. One is the asymptomatic people - how many have already had it that we don't know about and how large is the asymptomatic group, and the other is what happens once we suppress it and then lift those suppressive measures.

You're right though. I think a lot of the issues in Western Europe and the US is because we've managed to avoid the worst of the last few pandemics so are just wildly unprepared - culturally, politically, in our healthcare systems. It's just unfortunate that this happens to be a particularly bad one.

[Oexmelin]

Apparently they want a definition of "non-essential", which to me seems kind of common sense.

Only tangentially related, but I have become convinced during my time teaching, that what we are having is a crisis in our capacity for judgment. Not the in being able to deploy opinions, nor following procedures to get to an output, but rather assessing appropriateness.

[Threviel]

Sweden has stopped testing unless you are in the risk zone or if you are working in health services, that is presumably why the curve is flattening.

The reasoning is that this disease is treated just like any other comparable disease with regards to testing. Its effects are known and there is really no point in testing healthy youngsters, you are supposed to be at home regardless of whether you are sick of corona or something else, knowing it's corona makes no practical difference.